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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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At least it seems like the epo breaks down on ens....wonder how real it is though, i will believe it when i see it.

 

I thought it looks all sorts of blocky. If you look at the end of today's 12z GEFS, there is a ridge north of AK, a ridge in western Canada..some higher heights in srn Greenland...looks like a mess. 

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I thought it looks all sorts of blocky. If you look at the end of today's 12z GEFS, there is a ridge north of AK, a ridge in western Canada..some higher heights in srn Greenland...looks like a mess.

I was looking at h5 mean and saw troughing in AK with a retrograding PV back towards the pole, this is after 4/5 period. It does look blocky up to that point.... But am I looking at this correctly?

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I was looking at h5 mean and saw troughing in AK with a retrograding PV back towards the pole, this is after 4/5 period. It does look blocky up to that point.... But am I looking at this correctly?

 

Yeah the PV goes, but with the blocky kind of look...it's probably going to be rather inclement at times here. April is not known for nice wx here so it's almost par for the course.

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It's all relative, though... Winter will always be the season of fast flow because of the thermal gradient.

Yea that makes sense.

What i was getting at is that the - nao winters we've had a run of, i can see them becoming rare in the upcoming years. Obv im shooting from the hip, just a gut guess. I know a several years back a few of you guys talked about how we were heading towards a predominately -nao winter cycle. Maybe it was Tip? And that turned out pretty well. I hope we havent peaked and start heading back towards the positive cycle.

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Yea that makes sense.

What i was getting at is that the - nao winters we've had a run of, i can see them becoming rare in the upcoming years. Obv im shooting from the hip, just a gut guess. I know a several years back a few of you guys talked about how we were heading towards a predominately -nao winter cycle. Maybe it was Tip? And that turned out pretty well. I hope we havent peaked and start heading back towards the positive cycle.

 

We may actually be at the beginning of a turning point in the dominant NAO phase...the -NAO really dominated from the early 2000's through the first part of this decade...although the past few -NAO seasons have featured some solid -NAO's

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