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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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The euro is an absolute  furnace at 850 next week. +16 at 850 moving in. I just don't know how well we will do with such deep layer srly flow off 40F waters. I feel like we may have some low cloud issues at times if that does happen.

any backdoor worries Sunday on the Euro?

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nothing shows a svr outbreak. where does he get this crap

 

And this is what he said about today's storm about a week ago:

 

"Strong MJO Phase 3 Set up monster amplification next week,rivaling major buckling Apr 7-9 2007! Welcome back MJO! "

 

"Pattern for next week is wild.All models with threat of major winter like event,fits with phase 3 MJO.Massive cold in Canada lurks mid month."

 

Oops. :whistle:

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And this is what he said about today's storm about a week ago:

 

"Strong MJO Phase 3 Set up monster amplification next week,rivaling major buckling Apr 7-9 2007! Welcome back MJO! "

 

"Pattern for next week is wild.All models with threat of major winter like event,fits with phase 3 MJO.Massive cold in Canada lurks mid month."

 

Oops. :whistle:

yep, another big bag of fail. 

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I bet the wind components are more squarely SW in that synoptic evolution.  I don't see a lot of southerly taint, save for extreme SE CT, the southern 2/3rds or so of RI, and of course SE Mass, Cape and Islands.  ..But perhaps that's what is meant here.  Those areas could be SSW/S, while it is SW/WSW for most of CT/MA.  I can visualize a clear-air mode rad return indicating a boundary of sort, sinuously oscillating where the two air masses vie for position in the fluid medium.  

 

I am also not sure where the Euro is getting that much heat energy into the 850mbs. If we track that air mass back to it's origin, it's actually cooler in the deep MV latitudes than it is up this way. I suppose diabatic punishment could take it's toll, and with a higher theta-e content, some therms get stowed no question... But, a day on the minus side of 50% RH under +16C, in a synopsis that supports a tall boundary layer, will drive the temperatures into the middle 80s.  Calling that 78'ish is spinning it cooler in my mind - not that that is the intent.  I just know how to read a skew-t diagram, and understand off-shore wind components amid warm trajectory synoptics, combined.  By the way, could be dramatically different between Fitchburg and the CC Canal in that Euro solution.   

 

It may not last .. Although area lawns and courtyards are flushing over with deeper greens arlready, that air mass next week (either way) should burst buds.  Then, the PNA and the EPO ...heh. It's going to be touchy if you want sustained seasonal escape into warm climes.  The ah ... EPO, does a fairly goodly dip, while the PNA spikes moderately positive.  These two teleconnectors are thus both in a colder signal for the eastern portions of the conus out there in time.  Lots of time to change that, of course, but if holds, a decent cool snap could take place between the 15th and the 20th.   

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tickle me pickle

I never predicted 70F. mid-upper 60s always looked like the way to go. I was implying that it wouldn't be difficult to hit 70F in a few spots if we had a few hours of sun during peak heating. Regardless, there were areas of 65-67F with comfy dews. Sorry it was wretched down there. What's up with the bump trolling today?
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