CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 GFS is kind of cold for near Dendrite (esp lakes region) on north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 The low going far enough west to perhaps have a warm spring-like day Tuesday aftn. Even the GFS offering the chance of a few tstms late day in wrn ma. Much colder Wed with the chance of a few ra or sn shwrs late day. Hopefully some damaging winds for many that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 What are those green things that rustle in the trees, and hang directly from branches on stems ? Looks like it is time to see you again soon. Might not have to wait till Flag Day after all in New England, but 5/5 instead when they might be the size of a quarter. Even with a few backdoor events, any 65-70 degree day before those will move the process ahead with no turning back. The Greenland Block failing this spring will try to finally help us out now. If we can avoid blocking next month, I bet we get one 85-90 degree day up thru parts of interior New England. Remember June 94 was hot with severe, so we can turn around from bitter cold winters and below normal SST to hot late spring. South VA is in the 80's already for highs so it will come eventually without major Greenland Block or Davis Straight Block not showing up yet. +NAO in June could keep fears of June 2009 at bay somewhat. At this point we are as a culture so desensitized and acclimated to cold due to unrelenting anomaly that is so persistent it challenges the sanity of this thing being NOT actually driven by some super-nature power that hates warm wanters ... But I digress. Seriously, so much so that a 55F waif warm afternoon in strong April sun cons us into believing it's a warm day. Fine, I'll take it! I could not be any more fed up with these cold departures. You know what the real rub is/was ...? We went (for all intents and purposes) 37 days between the last significant snow in February, and the cold rains of March, with cold anomalies that drove March to -6 and change at ORH, and got narey a flake to show for it. Now, cold continues... exactly when we don't want it... It's amazing to me that a weather pattern can situate its self least complimentary to the greatest common denominator like that. Finding away to be the wrong sensible weather desire by the most possible people. Fascinating! Commiseration aside .. the overnight runs "appeal" to have backed off warmth. But, as Scott mentioned the other day there's been some sea sawing going on; could just be typical for spring mania, no doubt. Up through 18z yesterday's ever warming crescendo in the GFS, which featured a pretty impressive (at last) ending to the chill, there was a clear thickness recovery trend. Even the 12z Euro and GGEM were flagging... Rather abruptly that appears much more transitory in these overnight runs. Those blue lines, those dreaded blue lines, they just can't seem to wait to get back across the border. They are like a fantastic throng jostling and shoving to push there way into an auditorium before a rock-concert -- persistence tells us the guards and body-guards might fail, forcing the door open, be it backdoors, May 1977, or whatever... Could all be typical spring stochastic bull crap, too. We'll see. Yesterday showed us that those 55F fake warm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 There is weak cold signal in the EPO domain ... otherwise, this is a warm signal approaching the middle of the month. Who knows what the Euro cluster's vision for these domains spaces are, but the GFS camp would suggest that model runs with warm complexion should carry more weight than cooler ones. ...at least until tomorrow's new computation ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 In fact, that positive PNA spike is centered beautifully on that trough amplitude over eastern N/A next week; it's after that where/when I am wondering if we won't see a coherent trend toward a warm eastern ridge. The Euro and GGEM will fight this until their D4 or 5 ranges, as they tend to resist notions of raising eastern N/A heights as a static performance bias. I think the 00z recession of the thickness complexion may be wrong. We'll see. We can definitely see seasonal forcing on the runs though. That kind of PNA surge and trough depth would probably have meant a coastal in January. But in April, there's intense diabatic normalization from S-N, and that feeds back on less resistance to west tracks, more moisture transport, back side cold being muted... it's mud season cool wetness. Might be a flood concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The low going far enough west to perhaps have a warm spring-like day Tuesday aftn. Even the GFS offering the chance of a few tstms late day in wrn ma. Much colder Wed with the chance of a few ra or sn shwrs late day. lollies to 3"? Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I'll take the NAM QPF with the GFS temp profile please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I'll take the NAM QPF with the GFS temp profile please. Is this looking more like a front end thump of snow, or sleet and freezing rain? I have morning, 6:30 AM plans, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 LOL, Nice day 9 Spring snowstorm on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 LOL, Nice day 9 Spring snowstorm on the euro. nice little mini-nuke. We had a few inches on 4/16/92. Haven't really had a decent April event in these parts post-4/10 since then. We had 2 sloppy inches on 4/26/00 and of course the 5/18/02 event. We've had some small stuff...like a half inch here and there. I think most recently was maybe 4/23/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Yes, the euro has a weenie birch buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 nice little mini-nuke. We had a few inches on 4/16/92. Haven't really had a decent April event in these parts post-4/10 since then. We had 2 sloppy inches on 4/26/00 and of course the 5/18/02 event. We've had some small stuff...like a half inch here and there. I think most recently was maybe 4/23/11. Some of the models were hinting at a low developing after the cold front moves through, but many were bring it west of us. Probably won't happen..but funny to see as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Some of the models are really trying to gives us the warmest day of the year Tuesday. It's a torch aloft so if we break out just before noontime..it's U60s in ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 I remember the euro gave us a snow storm April 2-3 and 8-9 too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I remember the euro gave us a snow storm April 2-3 and 8-9 too lol Yes many days out and hopefully people know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Yes many days out and hopefully people know better. It has 0 chance of verifying..In fact the chances are below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 It has 0 chance of verifying..In fact the chances are below zero Sounds like the odds to your forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 It has 0 chance of verifying..In fact the chances are below zeroWho are you and what have you done with Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Who are you and what have you done with Kevin? Look at his avatar. The violent and frankly mentally unstable change of seasonal Kevin has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 nice little mini-nuke. We had a few inches on 4/16/92. Haven't really had a decent April event in these parts post-4/10 since then. We had 2 sloppy inches on 4/26/00 and of course the 5/18/02 event. We've had some small stuff...like a half inch here and there. I think most recently was maybe 4/23/11. It has been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Kevin texted me a pic of a slushy yard on 4/23/11. I was in FL at the time and was surprised to see that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 nice little mini-nuke. We had a few inches on 4/16/92. Haven't really had a decent April event in these parts post-4/10 since then. We had 2 sloppy inches on 4/26/00 and of course the 5/18/02 event. We've had some small stuff...like a half inch here and there. I think most recently was maybe 4/23/11. I know in the past you've mentioned 4/28/1987 as a major hit for ORH. I always found that analog interesting. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I know in the past you've mentioned 4/28/1987 as a major hit for ORH. I always found that analog interesting. Sent from my VS980 4G Logan had S+ too in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Kevin texted me a pic of a slushy yard on 4/23/11. I was in FL at the time and was surprised to see that pic.I recall that one. Snowed early in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Logan had S+ too in that. Just to see something like that modeled again,even out of Kevin's basement, would be fun at this point. Just realized that the Euro has it's usual day 9 bomb, but I can't really see that one depicted too well. But for Logan to have S+ that late is fascinating. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Just to see something like that modeled again,even out of Kevin's basement, would be fun at this point. Just realized that the Euro has it's usual day 9 bomb, but I can't really see that one depicted too well. But for Logan to have S+ that late is fascinating. Sent from my VS980 4G I think they had 4" in that. My co-worker was just describing that day to me. He said Woburn had 7". On his drive to UMASS Lowell...it flashed to S+ in Tewksbury. Drive home was terrible with snow covered roads. I think Wawa had about 2' in that. It was a N-S gradient as best banding was near and north of I-90 I believe. As far as OCMs go...Harvey busted on it, but Barry Burbank went for it. The NGM actually did well in that..so I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I think they had 4" in that. My co-worker was just describing that day to me. He said Woburn had 7". On his drive to UMASS Lowell...it flashed to S+ in Tewksbury. Drive home was terrible with snow covered roads. I think Wawa had about 2' in that. It was a N-S gradient as best banding was near and north of I-90 I believe. As far as OCMs go...Harvey busted on it, but Barry Burbank went for it. The NGM actually did well in that..so I hear. What was the ratio, like 4:1 lol? did it even dip below 32 at the the surface? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 BTW, I'm noticing at least around here that the dewpoint is 27...with precip beginning in a couple of hours. Hmmm... Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 What was the ratio, like 4:1 lol? did it even dip below 32 at the the surface? Sent from my VS980 4G I know it was dropping through the 30s even during the day. Probably was like 31.9-32.5 or so during the evening in that storm....that's about the common temp range in real borderline storms like that, unless you get high in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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