dendrite Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 GFS looked like brief sn/ip there...same with euro.I just feel like the mid-level warmth is the one thing the NAM usually gets right...especially as we approach 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 GFS looked like brief sn/ip there...same with euro. Yeah both were colder in the 750-800mb range than the NAM...I guess we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I just feel like the mid-level warmth is the one thing the NAM usually gets right...especially as we approach 24hr. I can't see what the euro is doing above 850 at the moment, but it got near 0C at 700mb so there must be a warm tongue. I would still think some IP could happen there to start..maybe some aggregates. It looks like things wetbulb in the lower levels..but a small window for snow because of the mid levels there perhaps. I guess it's not high confidence, but if it happened..I would not be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I just feel like the mid-level warmth is the one thing the NAM usually gets right...especially as we approach 24hr. I dunno, there's been some horrific short term busts on it with that....can't stop thinking of 1/12/12 and the Firehose Storm (3/7-3/8 of last eyar) where it torched the crap out of the mid-levels even pretty close in and it was way off. Its had some scores though too...like 2/26 of last year. But I feel like its pretty much a crapshoot with that model. The soundings do look rather sleety for a time though on all guidance. But up toward the northeast near N whites and SR to Sugarloaf it could be a few hours of aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 um you might get some too Need less than an inch to go triples. 0.3 qpf of IP would do it - one would think that raindrops falling thru 5,000' of -3C air would ping on arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 67 right now at Central park.. What a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I had to drive to Boston and back to my house in the Plymouth NH area today. Amazing to leave total snow cover and see nothing in the Boston area. Really no snow within 30 miles of the Mass boarder. I started seeing snow in the woods in the Mancherster area. Snowpack really builds up right in Dendriteland in the southern lakes region of NH. Big difference between exit 20 and 23 along Rt 93. First grass just appearing on south facing slopes on my property. Bit of snow/sleet tomorrow night?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I had to drive to Boston and back to my house in the Plymouth NH area today. Amazing to leave total snow cover and see nothing in the Boston area. Really no snow within 30 miles of the Mass boarder. I started seeing snow in the woods in the Mancherster area. Snowpack really builds up right in Dendriteland in the southern lakes region of NH. Big difference between exit 20 and 23 along Rt 93. First grass just appearing on south facing slopes on my property. Bit of snow/sleet tomorrow night?? My friend (Wx2fish) just told me still 15"+ in the woods up by Andover NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 My friend (Wx2fish) just told me still 15"+ in the woods up by Andover NH. Hard to believe what it looks like in the Mts of Newry Maine at 2600 ft on April 3rd, looks like mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 My friend (Wx2fish) just told me still 15"+ in the woods up by Andover NH.Down to about a foot here away from structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I'll take that 18z GFS run. Maybe a couple inches here? Earlier precip and colder temps. I'm still pretty much leaning toward brief snow turning over to RAPL...maybe some ZR in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Down to about a foot here away from structures. That's pretty impressive still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That's pretty impressive still.A little behind 07-08, but yeah, still impressive considering we didn't have a huge March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I'll take that 18z GFS run. Maybe a couple inches here? Earlier precip and colder temps. I'm still pretty much leaning toward brief snow turning over to RAPL...maybe some ZR in the higher terrain. The soundings are isothermal for a time 800-750mb. Hopefully some nice omega to drop some aggs over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I would love 2" tomorrow as long as it melts the next day. Done with the foot of dirty snow on the ground, looks gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I dunno, there's been some horrific short term busts on it with that....can't stop thinking of 1/12/12 and the Firehose Storm (3/7-3/8 of last eyar) where it torched the crap out of the mid-levels even pretty close in and it was way off. Its had some scores though too...like 2/26 of last year. But I feel like its pretty much a crapshoot with that model. The soundings do look rather sleety for a time though on all guidance. But up toward the northeast near N whites and SR to Sugarloaf it could be a few hours of aggregates. Yeah those guys in the Maine mountains would look good for at least some snow accumulations. The 18z GFS maintains the CAD signal at H85 throughout the storm...pretty much all precip at SR/Sugarloaf area looks like it would be sleet or snow and probably ending as drizzle or freezing drizzle. Looks like precip gets through before 850mb warms above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Nice blizzard for the UP of Michigan with this system... web cams in that area show a heck of a lot of snow on the ground. That UP of Michigan is definitely a snow weenie spot...winter comes early and leaves late. * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 12 INCHES WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Weeklies have what I was guessing might happen later in the month..warmer air gets close to NYC. Verbatim we are near normal, but personally I don't like seeing the battle line over my head. Usually, it's not the warmer air that wins out NE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Here comes green-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Weeklies have what I was guessing might happen later in the month..warmer air gets close to NYC. Verbatim we are near normal, but personally I don't like seeing the battle line over my head. Usually, it's not the warmer air that wins out NE of NYC. That has disaster//backdoor all the way down to Philly written all over it. We are going to pay dearly for this above normal regime the next 5-7 days the 2nd half of the month. Dreading that period. Just dreading it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 That has disaster//backdoor all the way down to Philly written all over it. We are going to pay dearly for this above normal regime the next 5-7 days the 2nd half of the month. Dreading that period. Just dreading it Eh, I don't know about all the way down to Philly and I'm not saying to expect misery....it very well could be a yo-yo pattern. Just call me a little cautious that's all, especially over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Eh, I don't know about all the way down to Philly and I'm not saying to expect misery....it very well could be a yo-yo pattern. Just call me a little cautious that's all, especially over this area.The cold April pattern seems to have vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The cold April pattern seems to have vanished You can still have below normal heights, but above normal temps. It comes down to how wet the pattern is. This time of year...sunny DSD days are above normal unless the airmass is very anomalous. If the ensembles are right..it could be a bit stormy in the longer range. E-NE flow in April and May are what really drives a below normal pattern....not necessarily cold NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 You can still have below normal heights, but above normal temps. It comes down to how wet the pattern is. This time of year...sunny DSD days are above normal unless the airmass is very anomalous. If the ensembles are right..it could be a bit stormy in the longer range. E-NE flow in April and May are what really drives a below normal pattern....not necessarily cold NW flow.Seems like we have the chance of an AN month depending on how many nasty days like tomorrow we have. At least inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Seems like we have the chance of an AN month depending on how many nasty days like tomorrow we have. At least inland areas I have my doubts on AN, but I never thought this would be like a -3 month or anything. My guess is maybe a bit below..like -0.3 to -0.5 or so. If mid month turns into a disaster then all bets are off. Too early to really say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 the warmth is coming…..great to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Nice blizzard for the UP of Michigan with this system... web cams in that area show a heck of a lot of snow on the ground. That UP of Michigan is definitely a snow weenie spot...winter comes early and leaves late. * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 12 INCHES WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW. That looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Here comes green-up What are those green things that rustle in the trees, and hang directly from branches on stems ? Looks like it is time to see you again soon. Might not have to wait till Flag Day after all in New England, but 5/5 instead when they might be the size of a quarter. Even with a few backdoor events, any 65-70 degree day before those will move the process ahead with no turning back. The Greenland Block failing this spring will try to finally help us out now. If we can avoid blocking next month, I bet we get one 85-90 degree day up thru parts of interior New England. Remember June 94 was hot with severe, so we can turn around from bitter cold winters and below normal SST to hot late spring. South VA is in the 80's already for highs so it will come eventually without major Greenland Block or Davis Straight Block not showing up yet. +NAO in June could keep fears of June 2009 at bay somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The low going far enough west to perhaps have a warm spring-like day Tuesday aftn. Even the GFS offering the chance of a few tstms late day in wrn ma. Much colder Wed with the chance of a few ra or sn shwrs late day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Still a bit of a SOS signal for srn areas early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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