NEGa Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Yea we heard this one before. Believe it when I see it. ditto lol. after the last one that was supposed to be even more rain and we got nothing i wont buy it til its here. we could use some rain so fingers are crossed. still in the skeptical mode imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 ditto lol. after the last one that was supposed to be even more rain and we got nothing i wont buy it til its here. we could use some rain so fingers are crossed. still in the skeptical mode imby Yep I am hoping for the 2" predicted here. I still have memories of that bad drought a few years ago and all the plants it killed and damage it did. We go more than a couple of weeks without rain and I start to get nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 16 I've had almost that many days in the 90's already CAE and GSP say my trip around the state tomorrow will be a rainy one CAE...... .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE STRONG AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AIR MASS LIKELY WEAKLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN WEAK CAPE AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS AND MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG/ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY SO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SREF QPF PLUME FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN AND UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE AREA RIVERS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME RIVER FLOODING IN THE DAYS TO COME ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Seems like when the showers and storm cells are moving more south to north within the overall precip shield like this system is when we get good rains (as opposed to the showers and storms moving more west to east within the precip shield) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 18, 2014 Author Share Posted May 18, 2014 I guess no ones talking about the rain tomorrow !? I guess because its missing 85% of NC? One model has a .50-1.00 inch total , I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 I guess no ones talking about the rain tomorrow !? I guess because its missing 85% of NC? One model has a .50-1.00 inch total , I'll take it! If the people who are forecasted to be affected don't post I don't see another solution. It really has nothing to do with states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 I guess no ones talking about the rain tomorrow !? I guess because its missing 85% of NC? One model has a .50-1.00 inch total , I'll take it! I might get to see a passing sprinkle or two tomorrow and if I'm really lucky it might add up to more than .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Well...you can tell the Atlantic Hurricane Season is just a couple weeks away, our first fantasy storm on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Well...you can tell the Atlantic Hurricane Season is just a couple weeks away, our first fantasy storm on the GFS... Haha, it has actually been showing that for about a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Can you 'officially' remove the 'subtitle'... "winter can't last forever?". Clearly, it can... for those my age! Climatology wise... it's over!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Cool wx indeed. I haven't seen the 70's since Thursday afternoon. (and the high that day was 70.5 IMBY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 Looks like an unsettled weather pattern for alot of us from Memorial Day through the rest of next week. Thoughts? The weekend is looking nice temp wise and dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Looks like an unsettled weather pattern for alot of us from Memorial Day through the rest of next week. Thoughts? The weekend is looking nice temp wise and dry! Yeah, everything looks pretty dry through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend, I've been noticing on the GFS that our ridge breaks down and after the holiday a general weakness forms in the Southeast which allows typical early June convective chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 GFS still showing the tropical development in the long range, and actually moving the time frame up. Might not be phantom at all. It also looks like rainy season/ pop up thunderstorm season will start this Sunday. Also I thought this was interesting. Like usual the model almost never pick up on these. NWS Jacksonville AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO PROPAGATE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM NOT YET DEPICTING SUCH A SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION ON SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 GFS still showing the tropical development in the long range, and actually moving the time frame up. Might not be phantom at all. It also looks like rainy season/ pop up thunderstorm season will start this Sunday. Also I thought this was interesting. Like usual the model almost never pick up on these. NWS Jacksonville AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO PROPAGATE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM NOT YET DEPICTING SUCH A SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION ON SAT. Seems like the GFS treats long range tropical threats the same as it does wintry threats ! Long range looks promising only to not come to fruition! I like the way the ridge keeps setting up over the southern plains, that keeps us on the fringes and not the severe heat. It seems to be a dry pattern around most of the southeast, with occasional complexes of storms riding down the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Seems like the GFS treats long range tropical threats the same as it does wintry threats ! Long range looks promising only to not come to fruition! I like the way the ridge keeps setting up over the southern plains, that keeps us on the fringes and not the severe heat. It seems to be a dry pattern around most of the southeast, with occasional complexes of storms riding down the apps.It's still showing the tropical system! It's not at the same time either. 12z GFS looked very unsettled with widespread showers and thunderstorms each day for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Today's 12z GFS looks pretty anemic for precipitation for central NC. Only offering up .14" over the next week for the Raleigh area. I certainly hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Today's 12z GFS looks pretty anemic for precipitation for central NC. Only offering up .14" over the next week for the Raleigh area. I certainly hope it's wrong. I hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 I hope it's right. I hope it's wrong. getting dryish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 High Resolution Drought Monitor (map is for the last 3 months) - http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Both the European and GFS coming around to the evolution of what may be happening in the tropics a week from now? Just looking at the afternoon runs, there seems to be the notion that a couple 850mb vorts will soon lie from the Bay of Campeche southward through Tehuantepec an into the East Pac with eventually the northern area become dominant and spawning an area of surface low pressure in the Bay of Campeche by mid to late next week...this system develops some and it pulls either northward or northeast in the days 6-8... This afternoon's run showed some similarities, for example here is a look at the GFS...Day 3: Day 5 Day 7 Euro is a little different in that it actually takes the southern bundle of energy, develops it and then pulls it due north through the Straight and into the Gulf. That to me sounds like a simple error in the model in which 850 vort to develop...with that said the players on are on the table on both global models, that in itself has sparked my interest, we shall see in future runs... Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 ^ No wind but lot's of rain - but it is the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 6z GFS was crazy wet for South and Central Florida. About 11 inches of rain for Tampa in the 0-240hr timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 I guess we can close out this thread since spring ends in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 I guess we can close out this thread since spring ends in 2 hours. Easy enough... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43782-the-official-2014-summer-discussion-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Mack. 2014 Official Spring Discussion "Because Winter Can't Last Forever"... no longer applies!!!! 2014 Official Spring Discussion "Because the Dry Heaves Can't Last Forever... You'll Die"...? Fix it. Who's startin' the Summer Discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 The summer thread has been started. I hope the summer is wetter than spring, but I don't see that happening. Despite the El Niño state , I'm pretty sure this summer/ year will be below normal precip wise , when all is said and done. Patterns repeat and we are having fronts and precip coming from the N/NW and those are not getting it done in the moisture department. We need a weak tropical storm to come our way from the gulf, but El Niño is suppose to inhibit tropical activity!? So we are doubly screwed by El Niño ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.