Cold Rain Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Yeah, dynamics and jet energy needed for severe weather is not as impressive as compared to 48 hours ago...however substantial rainfall could become the issue now as we get a deep south flow while the upper flow becomes stuck for about 48+ hours...I've noticed the GFS in particular sends a front across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, stalls it on the Apps as additional areas of low pressure form along it. Quite a stripe of QPF that runs from the Deep South up through the spine of the Apps. Yeah, looking again at the latest model runs, eastern TN and western NC look to receive some substantial rain. It looks like then, the front plows east, giving eastern areas rain, but nothing too put of the ordinary. The trough remains to the west with a flow out of the SW/Gulf, but it looks dry. I'm not sure why there's no more precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Interesting looking QPF map for the 5-day outlook. Nice donut of low amounts over Northeast NC/Southeast VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Interesting looking QPF map for the 5-day outlook. Nice donut of low amounts over Northeast NC/Southeast VA. Nice bullseye over Upstate SC, I'm sure that will change! Looks like interesting weather next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Those bullseyes over eastern sections are just noise. I have no idea why they draw it like that. The general idea is more rain in the west and less in the east...at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 I'm going to wait on the 0z GFS to come out in a couple hours...I want to see what it looks like and then will post some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Got a chance to catch up on some data and would like to throw some ideas out there... First off, this is looking more and more like we will have the upper dynamics in play for a significant severe weather event from the Mississippi River to the East Coast. With my focus being the Carolina Region, I'm a little concerned that we could get some activity as early as Monday afternoon along a boundary that will extend from the Carolinas up into the midwest dermarking the moist southerly flow from a more stable flow to the north...it would not suprise me in future model runs that the awareness of potential from the Central Carolinas extending to the Midwest is heightened. Then looking at the upper heights for Tuesday evening, this looks like things will be in play for a strong severe weather event...here's a 500mb look for 0z Wednesday ( 8 pm Tuesday) The big question on who will be affected with possible tornadoes will be based on which areas can build some surface instability on each of the afternoons...I have a gut feeling this is going to turn into a big deal for a fairly large region. I would expect some night-time tornadoes. The other issue at hand is the slow moving nature of our upper features as they are being blocked from moving swiftly eastward. First this will influence when and how much a specific region will be affected because I expect a lot of areas will get hit by multiple storm cells or possible meso-scale complexes. This will also precip totals to being to pile up over the region...as of now I would highlight Northern Alabama through the So Apps Region and into the Carolinas for potential excessive rainfall as those areas could get slammed on more than one occasion. A lot of people need to keep an eye on this for multiple facets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Interesting looking QPF map for the 5-day outlook. Nice donut of low amounts over Northeast NC/Southeast VA. Reminds me of the kickoff of the Big Wet of last July: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40637-the-big-wet-of-2013/?hl=big%20wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Will be interesting to hear what Jason Boyer says tomorrow, Jay downplayed the rain a bit this morning saying 2 inches max.... I mean looks like 7 in my back yard! Haha I remember coming back home from school in May and it just rained all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Will be interesting to hear what Jason Boyer says tomorrow, Jay downplayed the rain a bit this morning saying 2 inches max.... I mean looks like 7 in my back yard! Haha I remember coming back home from school in May and it just rained all summer. Just a bit of advise...don't listen to WLOS. That's a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Will be interesting to hear what Jason Boyer says tomorrow, Jay downplayed the rain a bit this morning saying 2 inches max.... I mean looks like 7 in my back yard! Haha I remember coming back home from school in May and it just rained all summer. That map I posted was from last year, but models are putting out 5"+ in the same areas. Warm season ULL's = washout. HPC forecast: GFS total 5 day precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 *Seems to be the best place for this link* NASA mission brings large radars to western NC http://www.foxcarolina.com/story/25359314/nasa-partnership-brings-large-satellite-to-western-nc%C2'> (SFW) "The radars provide state-of-the-art measurements of rain intensity but are also capable of delineating between, rain, sleet, snow and hail. The two radars are referred to as the larger, NASA Polarimetric radar (NPOL) and is a S-band (10 cm) dual-polarized radar (similar to current NWS radars). They also have a smaller dual-frequency, dual-polarization, Doppler Radar (D3R)." "The project runs from May 1 until June 15, though Wolff said they will be documenting the rain and weather leading up to Thursday. He said the main project is sponsored by NASA, Duke University (Dr. Ana Barros) and NOAA." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 No rain in sight for next 7+ days, and 80s coming up after the weekend. Getting a little crusty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Read the GSP forecast discussion , no mention of rain until day seven or later! They also said that the next event could be a copy of the last system, with a wide open gulf feed!? Well we will see if it pans out better for us this time , or is the upstate precip hole going to haunt me all summer?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Read the GSP forecast discussion , no mention of rain until day seven or later! They also said that the next event could be a copy of the last system, with a wide open gulf feed!? Well we will see if it pans out better for us this time , or is the upstate precip hole going to haunt me all summer?! Sure it'll be open...until it's blocked by non-modeled convective complexes, dry air pockets, rain shadows, meso highs, gentrification, flocks of geese or other "unforeseen" items. But maybe the models will at least give us 7 days of fantasy rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 6z GFS indicates a cool weather pattern in the long range. Cool pattern would equate to great weather. I hope it is right, this time of year it can easily get hot. 6z GFS at day 12: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 90's are in my forecast this week......summer is here....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 90's are in my forecast this week......summer is here....sigh Yes it is. I want some thunderstorms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 So this next dud of a rain event on Sat/Sun ,how's it looking? It's been a good run, but I really don't want to break out the sprinklers already! Edit: looks like a cooler ( normal) temp regime and a much more unsettled pattern over the weekend and early next week! Need the rain, plants starting to wilt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 I'll break the post drought.... Looks like a trough gets establsihed this weekend. This means a lot cooler temps and hopefully lots of rain for those that are currently dry. 60 hour precip totals at hour 120: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140512+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Yea spring is coming back toward end of the week! Maybe summer is over for now. Need a little rain, a pop up t-storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I'll break the post drought.... Looks like a trough gets establsihed this weekend. This means a lot cooler temps and hopefully lots of rain for those that are currently dry. 60 hour precip totals at hour 120: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140512+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model It's the best chance for rain mby has had for the past few weeks CAE...... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO INCREASE BY EARLY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES BY THURSDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY INCREASING. SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS INDICATING AT LEAST LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...BUT EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...BUT EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF THE SC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT MAY COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 It's the best chance for rain mby has had for the past few weeks 6z GFS still showing a nice event for most in the SE. Almost everybody close or over 1" totals: 60 hour totals at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_084_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140513+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Finally hit 90f. WinterCancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Finally hit 90f. WinterCancel If your talking about RDU, I saw that as well. I thought it would hit 90 the two previous days but it stopped short at 89. Now the big question is how many 90 degree days do we get this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 If your talking about RDU, I saw that as well. I thought it would hit 90 the two previous days but it stopped short at 89. Now the big question is how many 90 degree days do we get this summer. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Local guys calling for widespread 1-2 inch totals from wed night - Thur night! I don't know whether to be happy or sad!? . I am definitely looking forward to the spring-like weather for the end of the week and weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Whoa. 0z GFS is a crush job. Southern and western VA get rocked. Heavy totals also extending from C AL through ATL and the NC foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Local guys calling for widespread 1-2 inch totals from wed night - Thur night! I don't know whether to be happy or sad!? . I am definitely looking forward to the spring-like weather for the end of the week and weekend! Yea we heard this one before. Believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 This should be interesting to watch the next couple days with the upcoming event... GOES-14 will be in Super Rapid Scan and centered over the Carolina’s and Virginia’s today and Thursday Posted on May 14, 2014 by Jonathan Blaes @ WFO RAH http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/goes-14-will-be-in-super-rapid-scan-and-centered-over-the-carolinas-and-virginias-today-and-thursday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 This should be interesting to watch the next couple days with the upcoming event... GOES-14 will be in Super Rapid Scan and centered over the Carolina’s and Virginia’s today and ThursdayPosted on May 14, 2014 by Jonathan Blaes @ WFO RAH http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/goes-14-will-be-in-super-rapid-scan-and-centered-over-the-carolinas-and-virginias-today-and-thursday/ Super Rapid Scan....yawn. Wake me when they put in in LUDICROUS SCAN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.