griteater Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Models showing a healthy -NAO block developing next week. Rains Tues-Wed, then cool through the weekend with a slow moving eastern U.S. trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Looks like seasonable temps with occasional rain chances over the next 10 days. Around D10, there appears to be an opportunity for a significant rain event. I'm sure it'll probably dwindle as we close in, but it looks pretty robust at this point. I hope so. I saw yesterday that this April has had the loswest number of tornadoes in 60 years. If there isn't any severe weather to follow it might as well be warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I hope so. I saw yesterday that this April has had the loswest number of tornadoes in 60 years. If there isn't any severe weather to follow it might as well be warm and dry. I want it to be cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Models showing a healthy -NAO block developing next week. Rains Tues-Wed, then cool through the weekend with a slow moving eastern U.S. trough. The GFS and Euro both are locking in to the idea of Greenland Blocking and it extending west towards Baffin Bay as well, really creating a log jam in the upper air flow across North America... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Models showing a healthy -NAO block developing next week. Rains Tues-Wed, then cool through the weekend with a slow moving eastern U.S. trough. The GFS and Euro both are locking in to the idea of Greenland Blocking and it extending west towards Baffin Bay as well, really creating a log jam in the upper air flow across North America... Of course they are. It's Spring! Let the -NAO fun begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The GFS and Euro both are locking in to the idea of Greenland Blocking and it extending west towards Baffin Bay as well, really creating a log jam in the upper air flow across North America... Log jam is a good way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Log jam is a good way to put it. Ya that is very impressive. The Euro has been showing a very large cold shot for the end of April and beginning of May for several runs know. Today's run of the Euro is quite impressive. Would not be very good for the crops though for such a late shot of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Looks like there could be a round or two of severe weather before the cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The GFS, particularly the 6Z, and the CMC both paint a very wet picture, starting around the 144 hour mark. The upper trough/low cuts off and drifts slowly toward the SE, bringing copious moisture and quite a long period of wet weather. The 0Z Euro is much less impressive, although we'd still get some rain/storms. It seems the upper and surface lows track farther north, keeping the best dynamics and moisture focused north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I think the GFS is really starting to recognize the Block that will be developing over Greenland and is starting to adjust itself in the medium to long range...If you look @120, a solid Block with secondary block over mainland Canada. Its that secondary block that keeps the lowest heights from transitioning to the Southeast... @144, the two height maxes begin to consolidate into one opening the lower heights to slide under it. Also noticed the slightly higher heights on the west coast? Those two areas correlate with lower heights in the Southeast US... @180...Everything is in place! Our block remains in place through at least Day 9 on the 6Z run before it tries to lift out (slowly)...if the GFS has this sniffed out, we're talking a multi-day severe weather threat transitioning from the Mississippi River eastward and a heavy, maybe excessive rain threat over a period of several days in a fairly wide region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Good post, Marion. It would be nice to see such a configuration in mid-winter for a change. Anyway, hopefully, the model's forecast will be close to correct. It should make for a very interesting period. We'd better go ahead and cut the grass this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Good post, Marion. It would be nice to see such a configuration in mid-winter for a change. Anyway, hopefully, the model's forecast will be close to correct. It should make for a very interesting period. We'd better go ahead and cut the grass this weekend. Nah, if you cut it last weekend I say leave it alone this weekend. You'll just have to cut it again next weekend after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Nah, if you cut it last weekend I say leave it alone this weekend. You'll just have to cut it again next weekend after the rain. Cutting the grass weekly is inevitable for the next 5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Cutting the grass weekly is inevitable for the next 5 months. Yup...especially when you have as many weeds as my yard does. They grow fast. FWIW, the 12Z GFS doesn't look as wet as the 6Z. But the 12Z CMC is more impressive. And we all know that's not worth very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Looking over 12z GFS, I noticed that supercell composite value had increased from 00z run (not sure how important this is, though) as well as more focus toward I-95 area. A quick look at wind profile isn't too bad either and dewpoints are in 60s. Things look pretty decent so far (if I'm intercepting the model right) but we're still several days away and timing is an issue for that system in Central Plains. We'll have to keep tracking this storm system over the next several days to see if the threat is still there for Carolinas. Hopefully it doesn't get too ugly this weekend for those west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Looks like we could have some fireworks soon down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Looks like we could have some fireworks soon down the road. Yep, about 3 months from now!Looks like a nice weekend coming up, low 80s and low humidity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I hope so. I saw yesterday that this April has had the loswest number of tornadoes in 60 years. If there isn't any severe weather to follow it might as well be warm and dry. ...and I've got nothing else to say. #banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Yes, I know it's a crappy model, and yes I know it is spring, and yes I know it is only % probabilities, but still - Wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like SOS; great for some folks in the SE but potential damaging subfreezing temps for the mountains; it is freaking May. Don't like seeing winter in mid-spring. Side note; first time I ever went cross country skiing was May 1992 when Mt. Pisgah (within site of downtown Asheville) had 50 plus inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like SOS; great for some folks in the SE but potential damaging subfreezing temps for the mountains; it is freaking May. Don't like seeing winter in mid-spring. Side note; first time I ever went cross country skiing was May 1992 when Mt. Pisgah (within site of downtown Asheville) had 50 plus inches of snow. We will stay in this pattern till Dec , then it will flip to western trough for D,J,F! Looking forward to alot of rain next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 We will stay in this pattern till Dec , then it will flip to western trough for D,J,F! Looking forward to alot of rain next week! Looking forward to some possible severe weather to track just for the excitement end, but not looking forward to the rain. It looks like my son's baseball practice is going to get rained out again Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Long range disco from RAH below. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UPANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRSTHALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVERTHE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THEEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTOTHE CENTRAL CONUS.REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLYTOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH APOTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORTNORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRINGCONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TOBE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ANDSEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREADCLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion -- WPC 5-7 day precip map. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Long range disco from RAH below. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion -- WPC 5-7 day precip map. Impressive. Love me some Cold Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Love me some Cold Rain... You know it! Cold Rain is awesome! The 12Z GFS looks wetter than the 0Z. That upper low cut-off thing is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Hi everyone, new here but been lurking for a few weeks. I have been looking for a weather site that deals with the southeast and I finally found it. Decided to register today and hopefully give details to what is going on down here in eastern NC, New Bern to be exact. That said, I really enjoyed this past weekend, rain and mid 50's both Saturday and Sunday. We ended up with just under 2 inches for the weekend and judging form some of the posts in here, looks like more is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Today's model data showing several areas of low pressure that will develop along the near stationary upper low that will form of the Mississippi. One in particular may form over the Mid-South on Tuesday, that could be of interest to the Southeast in the Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame. Once has to wonder with the number of 500mb vorts that will rotate through that we'll get some possible MCS type of activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Hi everyone, new here but been lurking for a few weeks. I have been looking for a weather site that deals with the southeast and I finally found it. Decided to register today and hopefully give details to what is going on down here in eastern NC, New Bern to be exact. That said, I really enjoyed this past weekend, rain and mid 50's both Saturday and Sunday. We ended up with just under 2 inches for the weekend and judging form some of the posts in here, looks like more is coming. Welcome aboard to the, uh, board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Well, the deal next week is starting to look more and more underwhelming as we get closer. Of course, everything is looking farther north than a couple days ago. We'll be lucky to get a quickly moving band of showers if these trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Well, the deal next week is starting to look more and more underwhelming as we get closer. Of course, everything is looking farther north than a couple days ago. We'll be lucky to get a quickly moving band of showers if these trends keep up. Yeah, dynamics and jet energy needed for severe weather is not as impressive as compared to 48 hours ago...however substantial rainfall could become the issue now as we get a deep south flow while the upper flow becomes stuck for about 48+ hours...I've noticed the GFS in particular sends a front across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, stalls it on the Apps as additional areas of low pressure form along it. Quite a stripe of QPF that runs from the Deep South up through the spine of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.