Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

2014 Official Spring Discussion


mackerel_sky

Recommended Posts

Unfortunately ???????

 

Screw the SE Ridge. Don't hate on the cool, wet stuff. Trust me you'll be begging for it multiple times over the next 6 months. Enjoy every last drop of it, assuming there's anymore left in the tap.

 

After the epic flooding and landslides last year; you will not find me complaining about warm and dry (unless an epic drought sets in)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 266
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Unfortunately ???????

 

Screw the SE Ridge. Don't hate on the cool, wet stuff. Trust me you'll be begging for it multiple times over the next 6 months. Enjoy every last drop of it, assuming there's anymore left in the tap.

Well, I hate the cool, wet stuff. Leave that depressing, miserable weather in the pacific northwest. When it gets spring here I want warm and sunny every day, with some storms every now and then for excitement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How's the weather in Augusta looking for the practice round on Monday? Trying to decide whether or not to make the trip!

 

Lot of showers and storms Monday, unfortunately. GFS shows the rain not moving in until around 12 p.m. (or at least the heaviest precipitation). I have been to Augusta twice, and luckily we had great weather both times. Sorry that you will have bad weather if you decided to go, but it is an amazing place to see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Folks,

 We interrupt this thread for the following special bulletin. The 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Repeating, the 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Being that it is Goofy out 9-11 days from now, I'm taking the intensity of this cold with a huge grain as of now and advise you do the same. However, I also advise you to carefully watch how this evolves over the next several days. I obviously don't believe that this run's 25 for KATL has a sleet pellet's chance in heck of verifying on 4/16, which would obliterate the current record low of 32, would be a whopping two weeks later than the current latest 25 on record, and would tie the alltime April record low set on 4/2/1881. However, we do need to monitor this period for the realistic chance for at least a frost and light freeze event. By the way this run actually has snow flurries in or near ILM on 4/16 fwiw. It has stupid cold (for mid-April) of -10 C at 850.

 

 Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates on this potential cold situation as model data continues to be released. We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread already in progress.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Folks,

We interrupt this thread for the following special bulletin. The 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Repeating, the 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Being that it is Goofy out 9-11 days from now, I'm taking the intensity of this cold with a huge grain as of now and advise you do the same. However, I also advise you to carefully watch how this evolves over the next several days. I obviously don't believe that this run's 25 for KATL has a sleet pellet's chance in heck of verifying on 4/16, which would obliterate the current record low of 32, would be a whopping two weeks later than the current latest 25 on record, and would tie the alltime April record low set on 4/2/1881. However, we do need to monitor this period for the realistic chance for at least a frost and light freeze event. By the way this run actually has snow flurries in or near ILM on 4/16 fwiw. It has stupid cold (for mid-April) of -10 C at 850.

Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates on this potential cold situation as model data continues to be released. We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread already in progress.

I'm in full on spring/ gardening mode now, we don't need this ! Maybe it will be like next weeks cold snap that never came to fruition!?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in full on spring/ gardening mode now, we don't need this ! Maybe it will be like next weeks cold snap that never came to fruition!?

You'd be a-ok based on the subsequent two Goofy runs. They don't bring down the intense cold into the SE as they keep it in the northern states. So, that 0z Goofy is a big outlier for the SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Folks,

 We interrupt this thread for the following special bulletin. The 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Repeating, the 0Z 4/6 Goofy has a record setting SE cold-wave on it for the period 4/15-17. Being that it is Goofy out 9-11 days from now, I'm taking the intensity of this cold with a huge grain as of now and advise you do the same. However, I also advise you to carefully watch how this evolves over the next several days. I obviously don't believe that this run's 25 for KATL has a sleet pellet's chance in heck of verifying on 4/16, which would obliterate the current record low of 32, would be a whopping two weeks later than the current latest 25 on record, and would tie the alltime April record low set on 4/2/1881. However, we do need to monitor this period for the realistic chance for at least a frost and light freeze event. By the way this run actually has snow flurries in or near ILM on 4/16 fwiw. It has stupid cold (for mid-April) of -10 C at 850.

 

 Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates on this potential cold situation as model data continues to be released. We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread already in progress.

The latest recorded snow event in ILM was a trace around April 8, IIRC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those in NC/SC/GA that received significant rainfall over the past couple days...we got a doozy of a pattern showing up on the GFS for early next week...The area from Alabama to Western North Carolina received 3-5 inches of rain over the past 48 hours. This region could easily equal that if the GFS is on to something.

 

 

gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^ The Euro takes the primary from the TX panhandle up through the Lakes.  This still argues for some rain (not the flooding rains shown on the GFS), but with the best dynamics well north, as usual, I wouldn't expect a big severe weather threat...just from the look of the Euro, that is.

 

The CMC's pretty amped too, but it doesn't close off like the GFS, through 180 hrs.  Still, it delivers a good dose of rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^ The Euro takes the primary from the TX panhandle up through the Lakes.  This still argues for some rain (not the flooding rains shown on the GFS), but with the best dynamics well north, as usual, I wouldn't expect a big severe weather threat...just from the look of the Euro, that is.

 

The CMC's pretty amped too, but it doesn't close off like the GFS, through 180 hrs.  Still, it delivers a good dose of rain.

 

Well, this event has turned into another run of the mill April showers thing, it looks like.  The severe threat doesn't look too great now, nor does the heavy rain threat, on a widespread basis at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro echos the GFS surface temps Tue/Wed; that was missing last time. Seriously frost will probably just be higher elevations. However it is almost laughable how cold mornings are staying deep in to April. At least the afternoons are nice. Love it!

 

In other news, the new severe Day 4 is over some of the worst chase territory in all of tornado alley, Plains and Dixie inclusive. Only the Ozarks is worse. I'll be relaxing over here in the Tennessee sunshine on Sunday, thanks. :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoy the weather this weekend:  Flooding and a Strong CAD is on the way next week:

 

A VERY SHARP COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO... THEN THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE
SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE
A WEATHER HAZARD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY... THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM JUST OFF THE SC/NC OR MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS... A VERY CHILLY AND PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT MAY UNFOLD OVER THE REGION WITH A STIFF NE FLOW. DEPENDING ON
THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS... TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY ACTUALLY FALL
THROUGH THE 50S/40S. THIS CHILLINESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE DRIVEN
BY A 1035+ MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NY/PA LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MID 30S
SHOULD RESULT FOR LOWS BY THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY MORNINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (8-12 DEGREES BELOW
THE 30 YEAR RUNNING AVERAGES).
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brad Panovich WCNC

3 mins ·

As nice and warm as this weekend will be. There is a potential late season frost/freeze possible next week. ‪#‎cltwx‬ ‪#‎ncwx‬ ‪#‎scwx‬

1378812_650831974989262_5308269329130627

As much as I'm in favor of very late season chill, I doubt it would get as cold as this 6Z GFS run shows at two meters due to cold bias. I'd add at least 3-5 degrees to these numbers. Still, that would be some quite impressive chill!

It has 37 for Katl. I'd go with 40+. It has 43 at Ksav. I'd go 46+ there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As much as I'm in favor of very late season chill, I doubt it would get as cold as this 6Z GFS run shows at two meters due to cold bias. I'd add at least 3-5 degrees to these numbers. Still, that would be some quite impressive chill!

It has 37 for Katl. I'd go with 40+. It has 43 at Ksav. I'd go 46+ there.

I agree. Euro OP is much colder than it's ensembles as well. 31 in CLT? nah. Euro's coldest minimum has been 35 and that's down from 39 and 41 the previous two runs....and even that's a bit cold, I'd bet near 37 as the ensemble shows. This is like showing a 06z snowfall map and saying "it could snow" when the ensembles don't support it, kinda pointless. I like Brad P, but he makes a huge ensemble blog post and posts the 06z 2m temps 150hrs out....lol...

 

edit: I take that back, somehow the 12z Euro has gone extremely cold as well...26 minimum in Raleigh Thursday morning, it will be interesting to see what the ensembles look like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course we will get 30s next week, I just bought and planted my ' mater plants yesterday! :(

Planted the beans today but held back on everything else. it will be late next weekend before the ground dries back out enough after this upcoming rain event this week. The dog woods have just started to come out here the past 3 days which means it time to head to the ponds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...