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2014 Official Spring Discussion


mackerel_sky

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N NC Folks,

 Fwiw, the 0Z Euro clown legitimately (yes, I mean legit) gives James 1-2" of SN on 4/10. Please make a note of it and stay tuned to this subforum for further updates as they become available. We now return you to our regularly scheduled programming in progress.

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N NC Folks,

 Fwiw, the 0Z Euro clown legitimately (yes, I mean legit) gives James 1-2" of SN on 4/10. Please make a note of it and stay tuned to this subforum for further updates as they become available. We now return you to our regularly scheduled programming in progress.

 

There definitely looks to be an amplified and active pattern shaping up after about D5 or so.  The system that you mentioned on the Euro looks similar to yesterday's 12z GFS at around 216/240 hrs.  Around hrs 168-180, most models show a system swinging through bringing the threat of heavy rain and possibly severe weather.  The 6z GFS really goes bonkers with it.

 

Below are the Euro panels from eWall at 216 and 240.  Nice looking system.  If this was in January or February, I'd give it a bit more credibility as a potential winter threat.  Unfortunately, a D9/10 snowstorm in mid-April is about as long of a shot as a long shot can be.  Either way, it looks like we only have a small window where we have to endure nice, sunny, warm, boring spring weather. :)

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N NC Folks,

 Fwiw, the 0Z Euro clown legitimately (yes, I mean legit) gives James 1-2" of SN on 4/10. Please make a note of it and stay tuned to this subforum for further updates as they become available. We now return you to our regularly scheduled programming in progress.

 

BWWWWHAAAAAHAHHHA.  Dangit! You got me Larry!  Classic!  Happy April fools day to you too man ;-)

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The 00z Euro WeatherBell clown drops 4.4" of snow here on 4/10.  Larry's total is probably more realistic, though.  Rain-to-snow always works out.  I'm all-in.

Not a single ensemble member outside of the mountains show even a trace. Seems legit. haha

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Not a single ensemble member outside of the mountains show even a trace. Seems legit. haha

 

:)

 

One thing i am noticing is that a lot of the modeling is indicating a pretty cold snap around the April 10th time frame.  There may be a frost/freeze opportunity there.  Looks like raw output from the GFS and GGEM would indicate low temperatures in the upper 20s for much of NC for a day or two.  The Euro is a little warmer.  SC/GA are a little warmer, but certainly within the threat area.

 

Granted, it's kind of fantasy land, so meh...

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:)

One thing i am noticing is that a lot of the modeling is indicating a pretty cold snap around the April 10th time frame. There may be a frost/freeze opportunity there.

Yeah I noticed that when it started showing up on the LR on 3/30 (see my post on the previous page) now that we are a tad bit closer and the euro hasn't let off I think it has a good chance in happening. Moral of the story is enjoy the warmth cause the cold is coming back for a visit! A late frost would be cool. People are going to be surprised to see cooler temps in the forecast, they think these 80 degree days are here for good already.
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I wisht he 80s were here to stay. I am over cold weather until December.

 

Well, it appears Cold Rain has quit blasting the SE ridge with his photon torpedoes; maybe the SE ridge will come back to stay during the second half of April (but I doubt it).

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I wonder if anywhere in NC/VA will hit 90 today.

Far SE counties of NC have a decent chance. Highest temp for the latest HRRR model is 89 for NC, southern Va counties around 86.

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A personal station in Fayetteville just hit 90.1 at 3:50pm, all other Fayetteville locations are around 88.2-6.

 

Will it get to 90 in Ft. Bragg? Probably, but it didn't hit 90 at 2pm as "RAWS FORT" location indicated. Probably located near a bunch of metal and cement on base.

 

Needless to say, some forecast highs are getting busted.

 

Edit: Personal station indicating 90.1 just jumped back down to 88. That's reliable.

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Well, it appears Cold Rain has quit blasting the SE ridge with his photon torpedoes; maybe the SE ridge will come back to stay during the second half of April (but I doubt it).

Yeah, I figured we could use a little SE ridge after all the cool, wet stuff recently. Unfortunately, it looks to get beaten down again next week. I still have standing water in my ditches.

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Cold Rain, do you have a 180 hour image of total precipitation that has fallen on the 12z Euro?

Negative. I only have the free stuff, unfortunately. Maybe one day, some of the good stuff will make it into the budget. I haven't even seen the Euro this afternoon. Is it looking rainy?

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Negative. I only have the free stuff, unfortunately. Maybe one day, some of the good stuff will make it into the budget. I haven't even seen the Euro this afternoon. Is it looking rainy?

Yeah looks like it. The Euro on wunder ground for some reason super buffs up precipitation for certain intervals, that's why I was wondering how much actual precip fell in total.
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No rain til Sunday now! Starting to get that " droughty" feel! All energy and storms going north, models showing rain and higher totals , only to reduce them as they get close! Plus this super dry air with the S/SW flow, just kind of wierd. Hopefully I am just wrong, but already close to 3 inches behind for the year!

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Yeah looks like it. The Euro on wunder ground for some reason super buffs up precipitation for certain intervals, that's why I was wondering how much actual precip fell in total.

Yeah, it does look wet...just got to see it. Looks like a couple rounds. That's a pretty deep trough. I'm surprised it doesn't cut off. It did a couple days ago.

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Yeah, I figured we could use a little SE ridge after all the cool, wet stuff recently. Unfortunately, it looks to get beaten down again next week. I still have standing water in my ditches.

Unfortunately ???????

 

Screw the SE Ridge. Don't hate on the cool, wet stuff. Trust me you'll be begging for it multiple times over the next 6 months. Enjoy every last drop of it, assuming there's anymore left in the tap.

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Unfortunately ???????

Screw the SE Ridge. Don't hate on the cool, wet stuff. Trust me you'll be begging for it multiple times over the next 6 months. Enjoy every last drop of it, assuming there's anymore left in the tap.

I hate having to beg for it!

Rain, that is! Next week looks unsettled, let's hope the models can get the rains right, they were very bad with the snow most times this winter.

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Unfortunately ???????

Screw the SE Ridge. Don't hate on the cool, wet stuff. Trust me you'll be begging for it multiple times over the next 6 months. Enjoy every last drop of it, assuming there's anymore left in the tap.

Just trying to keep the people happy, brother. I'm good with cool, cloudy days every day. But I know that many folks like warm, sunny weather. The SE ridge in spring is ok because it can only get so hot. In summer and winter, that's when it really sucks.

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Yeah looks like it. The Euro on wunder ground for some reason super buffs up precipitation for certain intervals, that's why I was wondering how much actual precip fell in total.

 

Just under 3" of rain for Waycross/Ware, GA on the 12z Euro.  The ENS mean is over 2", too.  Very wet.

 

Pretty wet here, too, with ~1.5".  The ENS mean is even higher in the 1.75" range.  I'm in for wet weather.  Bring it on.  I enjoy rain this time of year and into the summer.

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