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2014 Official Spring Discussion


mackerel_sky

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Yeah, I was thinking of what grade to give winter, and thought of a B, but that was just based on a curve compared to what RDU had the previous two winters. It's more like a C. The number of events we had made it seem more impressive than it really was, especially since we didn't have anything the last two winters. But we ended up about average, and a C is average. I guess I'll give it a C+ for effort. It really tried this winter, but the results were still average here.

Good post. If we're grading simply by snowfall, I'd have to go C-, since RDU is below average. However, I would go a little higher...maybe a B-...based on how bad the last several years sucked. I love the lowest total of 5.8 sits right over our area, surrounded by more in all directions (Packbacker, oh Packbacker :whistle:). I also like how somebody, just NE of Rocky Mount got 137.8". Jackpot baby!!

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Good post. If we're grading simply by snowfall, I'd have to go C-, since RDU is below average. However, I would go a little higher...maybe a B-...based on how bad the last several years sucked. I love the lowest total of 5.8 sits right over our area, surrounded by more in all directions (Packbacker, oh Packbacker :whistle:). I also like how somebody, just NE of Rocky Mount got 137.8". Jackpot baby!!

 

Yeah, we have had the snow shield over us for a while. Everywhere just to our north, west, south, and even east gets more than us lately.

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2 storms.  .5 and .25.  No power for three days with the first one.

 

Gotcha. I was in north Raleigh for the 2002 storm. We had at least .5 on everything and were out of power for 2/3 days. At least we had a gas log fireplace in our appartment then. But that sucked.

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From graupel to possible strong storms in the same week. Love the transition periods of spring and fall ;)

 

927 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK EAST ACROSSTHE REGION. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATEDTORNADO.
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Looking at the afternoon runs of our global models...a lot of cut-offs or near cutoffs cruising through the Eastern and Southern parts of the US in the next 2 weeks. Looks like could possibly have a brief blocking scheme around Day 10 with a massive upper low/trough sitting just east of the Mississippi River allowing a pretty good moisture tap on southerly flow...maybe that block is a result of our ocean storm that just bombed out?

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CR, I apologize for not responding earlier to your pretty damning indictment of winter's last hurrah.  (I've been swamped at work this semester.)

 

Anyway, in light of your quite conclusive evidence, the defense rests and doesn't even bother to offer any arguments.  Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, go ahead and order the bailiff to throw the shackles on my client Ol' Man Winter and lock him up for at least eight months.  I might appeal to the judge's good nature to let my client out early for good behavior, but that is contingent on many unforeseen things, at this time.

 

;)

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Looking at the afternoon runs of our global models...a lot of cut-offs or near cutoffs cruising through the Eastern and Southern parts of the US in the next 2 weeks. Looks like could possibly have a brief blocking scheme around Day 10 with a massive upper low/trough sitting just east of the Mississippi River allowing a pretty good moisture tap on southerly flow...maybe that block is a result of our ocean storm that just bombed out?

You know Robert mentioned this on his Facebook page maybe it will happen if it does there will be some cooler rainy days ahead. .. looks like El Nino is starting to show its face

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CR, I apologize for not responding earlier to your pretty damning indictment of winter's last hurrah.  (I've been swamped at work this semester.)

 

Anyway, in light of your quite conclusive evidence, the defense rests and doesn't even bother to offer any arguments.  Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, go ahead and order the bailiff to throw the shackles on my client Ol' Man Winter and lock him up for at least eight months.  I might appeal to the judge's good nature to let my client out early for good behavior, but that is contingent on many unforeseen things, at this time.

 

;)

 

Ha!  No worries.  Work is an unfortunate intruder sometimes. :)  Anyway, maybe we can bail old man winter out in late November next year, if he has good behavior and let's us have some nice spring days soon.  Looks like we're solidly into cutoff season now.

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Them models don't know what's going to happen.. I've only had light rain showers. .. no thunder lightning or high winds.. next time a model show a storm just know the gulf of Mexico steals our moisture.. they show storms in Carolina but every time there is to much convection in the gulf to let the heavy rain and storm move northward.. and some reason the models never pick up on it

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Them models don't know what's going to happen.. I've only had light rain showers. .. no thunder lightning or high winds.. next time a model show a storm just know the gulf of Mexico steals our moisture.. they show storms in Carolina but every time there is to much convection in the gulf to let the heavy rain and storm move northward.. and some reason the models never pick up on it

The storms were never forecast for today. The storms, some possibly severe , are for tomorrow .
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After the warmup set to occur this week, 12z Euro hinting at bring back winter to NE and unseasonably cool temps to NC, same on the control, and FWIW GFS has it too. If it comes to fruition, it would bring colder than normal (-10+ C) 2m temps in NC with lows around 40 or possibly, below...something much like it's going to be tomorrow morning (Low 37 for RDU)...Something to watch in this boring period.

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This week will feel a little summer like around here! 2-3 days touching 80? It's a little too early for that, and will definitely bring full on leaf out on most trees! Hopefully the freezes and frosts will stay away? There's a reason the last frost/freeze date here is April 15.

I've lived in this vicinity, NC/SC line, almost all my life.  

 

There's ALWAYS a big frost/freeze... first, or second, week of April.

<Have family coming from UK second week of April.  It will be "brutal", I suspect.

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