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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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There is 0 consistency

 

I totally disagree here...There is never going to be 100% consistency with ANY storm. I mean before every storm people are always like "models are all over the place"...Well, for the most part, they are usually going to be different. Of course the models will be slightly different with their tracks and development with this storm. However, 0 consistency to me means some models show a major storm for NYC while others are Out to sea. Right now we're bordering on some way out to sea and others being a graze...I think the writing is on the wall for this one personally. 

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I think your expectations of computer guidance is wayyyyy too high. The models have been damn good with this event. I'd say one of the best modeled events of the season considering they picked up on this threat 9-10 days out. 

The Euro mean was the 1st model to pick up on this big threat.

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Pretty much expected as the GFS usually ends up east of Euro with very strong storms. The only run of interest

today will be to see if the 12z Euro shifts east or holds serve for the folks out in Suffolk.

I can`t toss it , because I don`t like it , but I would much rather see the 500 MB of the Euro at hour 72- and see how it matches up

with the 84 at 0z .

I care less about the GGEM and UKMET .  But you don`t want to see every center run east before we get to 2 pm.

Makes it anticlimactic for me .

Wana see 1 Global come West , to keep us in the game . We will see shortly.

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I think your expectations of computer guidance is wayyyyy too high. The models have been damn good with this event. I'd say one of the best modeled events of the season considering they picked up on this threat 9-10 days out. 

100 percent agree with this.   And saying the ensembles are all over the place sort of misses the point.....

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We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks.

Same here. I'm with you on this one.

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Major latent heat release on the GFS becomes noticeable at hour 60 with that new area of vorticity coming into existance way off shore.

 

You can see heights crashing in response.  By hour 63 it's a total explosion and game over.

 

sometimes this is real sometimes it's fake.

 

Never the less the Upward vertical velocity on the GFS during this process are off the charts.

 

 

 

gfsUS_500_avort_060.gif

 

gfsUS_500_avort_063.gif

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We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks.

 

I don't agree at all. The energy coming in on the eastern periphery of the mid level ridge on the west coast is flat, progressive and not nearly as energetic as boxing day. The window for this to amplify westward near the coast is all but closed. 

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There is 0 consistency

 

How can you post this? The track has wobbled a bit and forecast models are struggling to discern between individual nuances in the phase...and that is to be expected. But there has been tremendous consistency in the idea that this storm system will develop too far east, and too late for our area. 

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I do think that low further to the SE is being overdone by the GFS, and it is helping to screw things for the low closer to the coast by shifting and weakening the baroclinic zone. 

 

I can recall seeing this before on the GFS only to later reduce its intensity/influence in later runs. It is another element that will have to be watched. 

 

The euro should have a better handle on this evolution, so, will have to see how 12z handles these features.

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How can you post this? The track has wobbled a bit and forecast models are struggling to discern between individual nuances in the phase...and that is to be expected. But there has been tremendous consistency in the idea that this storm system will develop too far east, and too late for our area.

Yep barring a miracle l hats off to the gfs it did not budge

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I guess it's time to follow NAM and the mesoscale models to see if we get snow from inverted trough. Seems like the only way we'll get accumulating snow now.

longshot, of course.  Actually, i think we would want the storm to track pretty far east for the inverted trough to work out.

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We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks.

snap your fingers...make a wish...blow out the candles. That is what it sounds like. You guys use ZERO meteorology....

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