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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDMIMATN.shtml

 

NOAA BUOY 41002 HAD 5.5MB PRES DROP TO 1004MB AT 17Z. TSTMS ALSO

HAVE DVLPD HERE INVOF OF FIRST LOW CENTER. 12Z MDLS CONTINUE ON
TRACK WITH RAPID DEEPENING AND HURCN FORCE WINDS...AND LIKELY
STRONGEST WINDS SEEN OVER NEW ENGL/NERN MID ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR AT LEAST THE PAST FEW WINTER SEASONS
. AFTER REVIEWING 12Z
GUIDANCE APPEARS THAT CURRENT NT1/NT2 FORECASTS ARE MOSTLY ON
TARGET. SHARP UPPER TROF SHOULD GAIN NEG TILT OVER NEXT COUPLE
HRS WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO ALSO START AT SFC. EVEN GIVEN
THE 12Z MDLS DEEPENING RATES ON ORDER OF 25 TO 30 MB OVER 12 HRS
ENDING WED MRNING OR AFTERNOON...BASED ON MDLS TENDENCY TO NOT
DEEPEN THESE EXPLOSIVE OCEANIC CYCLONES RAPIDLY ENOUGH...STILL
FEEL AS MDLS CNTRL PRES MAY BE A FEW MB TOO WEAK WED. OVER PAST
SEVERAL YEARS THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH HURCN FORCE CYCLONES
OVER BOTH N ATLC AND N PACIFIC
. STILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WARNINGS...AND WILL
NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES. HIGH RESOLUTION GFS AND
ECMWF ARE INDICATING DVLPMNT OF STING JET TYPE FEATURE WED
MORNING NEAR BENT BACK WARM FRONT WHICH SHUD BE LOCATION OF
HIGHEST WINDS MIXING TO SFC. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING 90 TO 100 KT SFC GUSTS OVER THIS AREA WHICH SHUD EVEN
FURTHER ENHANCE OVER GLF STREAM SRN BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE
WATER
S. MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GALES SHOULD EXIT THE NERN
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. 

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I'd hate to be out on a commercial fishing boat on the Georges Bank tonight or tomorrow.  These are "Perfect Storm" type conditions.  This storm, while mostly missing us, sadly, has been modeled beautifully from a formation, general track and especially intensity perspective - amazing how all those pieces (energy off the Pacific Coast, energy from the Gulf of Alaska and two branches of the jet stream) are largely coming together as forecast and should develop into one of the most powerful non-tropical storms in the history of the Atlantic.  

 

 GEORGES BANK...FROM THE NORTHEAST CHANNEL TO THE GREAT SOUTH
 CHANNEL INCLUDING WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD...TO THE HAGUE LINE-
 400 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
 
 HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
 

 TONIGHT
 S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO
 25 TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN...BECOMING NE 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
 MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING TO 9 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF SNOW
 DEVELOPING.

 WED
 NW PORTION...N TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KT. SE
 PORTION...N TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 65 TO 80 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33
 FT...BUILDING TO 27 TO 42 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST E. RAIN
 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW.

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=anz082&syn=anz080

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I'd hate to be out on a commercial fishing boat on the Georges Bank tonight or tomorrow. These are "Perfect Storm" type conditions. This storm, while mostly missing us, sadly, has been modeled beautifully from a formation, general track and especially intensity perspective - amazing how all those pieces (energy off the Pacific Coast, energy from the Gulf of Alaska and two branches of the jet stream) are largely coming together as forecast and should develop into one of the most powerful non-tropical storms in the history of the Atlantic.

GEORGES BANK...FROM THE NORTHEAST CHANNEL TO THE GREAT SOUTH

CHANNEL INCLUDING WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD...TO THE HAGUE LINE-

400 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

TONIGHT

S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO

25 TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN...BECOMING NE 40 TO 55 KT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING TO 9 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF SNOW

DEVELOPING.

WED

NW PORTION...N TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KT. SE

PORTION...N TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 65 TO 80 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33

FT...BUILDING TO 27 TO 42 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST E. RAIN

EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW.

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=anz082&syn=anz080

27-42 foot seas ! Yea man.. 60 foot rollers...look the fook out!

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Touche, but I think both occurrences are quite doubtful for the region.

359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-

261000-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0004.140326T1200Z-140326T2200Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-

EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-

PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-

NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA.

* HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

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