IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Following the same theme as the NAM, stronger with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Drier on the NW side. It's still drier than the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 if you understood probability you wouldn't be disappointed. this wasn't a hard forecast If you understood probability, you would know the extremely low odds of 3 straight snowstorms missing the NYC metro to our south in March. Maybe you could not kick people when they're down - it's unbecoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=17&parm=500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Looks like DC Suburbs, MD, N/W VA looking at 1-3/2-4 storm so far with it still coming down nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Still holding out hope for a low to pop off the VA Capes... Down by 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter with one timeout and Mark Sanchez as my QB. and you wind up with an INT OR A BUTT FUMBLE lol. And yes I am a jet fan for 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 if you understood probability you wouldn't be disappointed. this wasn't a hard forecast I knew it was 95% likely a couple of inches or less for NYC about 2 days ago, 4 days ago the probability of a miss was pretty well indicated on almost all the runs of all the reliable models, and I am still disappointed. Even 5 or 6 days ago, it was only an odd run or two of any model that said this would be joyous, and that model was usually the Canadian. Like Texas getting whipped in the Alamo Bowl by Oregon, I knew it'd require a miracle for any outcome but that, and I still wasn't happy. I was hoping for a Cape blizzard at least. That might still happen. Maybe. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I knew it was 95% likely a couple of inches or less for NYC about 2 days ago, 4 days ago the probability of a miss was pretty well indicated on almost all the runs of all the reliable models, and I am still disappointed. Even 5 or 6 days ago, it was only an odd run or two of any model that said this would be joyous, and that model was usually the Canadian. Like Texas getting whipped in the Alamo Bowl by Oregon, I knew it'd require a miracle for any outcome but that, and I still wasn't happy. I was hoping for a Cape blizzard at least. That might still happen. Maybe. . The elbow of the Cape is probably in for a good snow event but it'll be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If you understood probability, you would know the extremely low odds of 3 straight snowstorms missing the NYC metro to our south in March. Maybe you could not kick people when they're down - it's unbecoming. Not defending forky, but you know that unless there is something fishy with the coin itself, 5 flips landing tails, the sixth flip has a 50/50 chance if being tails again. Not to mention if the persistent lack of something in the pattern meant it was more than just a coin flip of OTS. But I do unerstand it isn't nice to troll nice people who were hoping to close the season with a bang, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I knew it was 95% likely a couple of inches or less for NYC about 2 days ago, 4 days ago the probability of a miss was pretty well indicated on almost all the runs of all the reliable models, and I am still disappointed. Even 5 or 6 days ago, it was only an odd run or two of any model that said this would be joyous, and that model was usually the Canadian. Like Texas getting whipped in the Alamo Bowl by Oregon, I knew it'd require a miracle for any outcome but that, and I still wasn't happy. I was hoping for a Cape blizzard at least. That might still happen. Maybe. Like Oregon in any meaningful game in front of the national stage every season, this storm was a let down....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 At least use the future tense if you are going to talk about this storm being a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The good news is that the 12z GFS gives me over 1.5" of rain this weekend, and that my friend is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The good news is that the 12z GFS gives me over 1.5" of rain this weekend, and that my friend is a win. It may get warmer but it's not getting drier. I like any active weather too so I'm good with this. Rain is a good thing this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It may get warmer but it's not getting drier. I like any active weather too so I'm good with this. Rain is a good thing this time of year. I need some rain so that my lawn can start turning green. That inch of rain a few days ago was very refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The good news is that the 12z GFS gives me over 1.5" of rain this weekend, and that my friend is a win. My new boat needs a good rinse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 So it looks like our NW low is now over extreme NW South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If you understood probability, you would know the extremely low odds of 3 straight snowstorms missing the NYC metro to our south in March. Maybe you could not kick people when they're down - it's unbecoming. a significant snow in NYC from this storm was always a low probability because there was never model consensus for it. i don't care that other storms missed us this month. that has nothing to do with this storm. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy ) if you're upset because of that then take paxil or something. people who whine about missing snowstorms sound like children who played chicken with doing their homework and lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 My new boat needs a good rinse! I love snow as much as everyone else here, but it's a distant memory once boating season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM ticked NW with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 March 25th and the Mid Atlantic forum already has 10 pages in a snow observation thread and the NY Metro forum doesn't even have an obs thread for the storm. I started one a few hours ago http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43307-325-326-flizzardsnow-observation-threads/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yanks, define "ticked". ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I need some rain so that my lawn can start turning green. That inch of rain a few days ago was very refreshing. Nights in the teens like the past 2 nights are not conducive to greening the lawn. 15 here this morning after a high around freezing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM ticked NW with the precip shield. too little, too late. The fish closer to shore get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yanks, define "ticked". ;-) 00z had the cut off SE of Mt. Pocono, 12z has the cut off into the Binghamton CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's a shame they're not sending any recon planes into the storm. I guess research for the sake of research is a thing of the past, but it would have been cool to see thermal profiles in the center once the system matures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Nights in the teens like the past 2 nights are not conducive to greening the lawn. 15 here this morning after a high around freezing yesterday. I had frost on my windshield this morning but the sun still felt warm as I was walking into my office building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Here comes the rapid deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Nights in the teens like the past 2 nights are not conducive to greening the lawn. 15 here this morning after a high around freezing yesterday.Looks like Thurs. morning could see teens again for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I was reading through their thread, it's barely sticking to the grass in most spots. I was south of DC when I posted that..around Fredricksburg VA. Now I'm an hr outside of Philly and it's just a foggy miserable drizzle. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The elbow of the Cape is probably in for a good snow event but it'll be a close call.Even they could be 20 miles to far west for what should be an epic Ccb with 4 plus rates.It's all about Halifax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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