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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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The surface is still east of the Euro  and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end

How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

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The surface is still east of the Euro  and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end

 

Pretty much expected as the GFS usually ends up east of Euro with very strong storms. The only run of interest

today will be to see if the 12z Euro shifts east or holds serve for the folks out in Suffolk.

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How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

No one is missing anything. It was closer to the coast on this run near OBX but then went quickly to the northeast.

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How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

At 60 - it tucks into OBX  then the center races to where the best convection is .

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At 60 - it tucks into OBX  then the center races to where the best convection is .

So this makes multiple models with multiple runs  with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution

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So this makes multiple models with multiple runs  with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution

We can say convective feedback , but the GFS may be right . Just have to wait for all the guidance . If there`s a glaring outlier it will be picked up .

 

I like the Euro , I think it`s the model to follow IMO , so I will wait to see who and what looks like it at 230 .

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Well, as is, this run of the GFS spares EVERYONE a major snowstorm except Nova Scotia. If this turns out to be a miss for all, it would really only be an upset for extreme SE MA. Most other areas were always "maybe"s with this one. And for our area, there were never more than 1 maybe 2 model runs in a row to show anything even too significant in the way of snowfall. But, we'll see where it goes. I know I've seen runs many times written off as "convective feedback errors" that turned out to be true with other models trending the same way

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There is 0 consistency

Well, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. These wobbles in the track do have MUCH larger effects on areas like eastern Long Island though, I will say. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn, but mainly for eastern Long Island in regards to a direct hit from the coastal storm. For the rest of us, we have to hope for an inch or two from the inverted trough feature, which rarely do pan out

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There is 0 consistency

that's not true, the euro, for one, has been pretty consistent with this storm.   consistency doesn't mean every model run will be exactly the same.  You cannot expect models to lock into smaller details days out, the idea is to get a good idea of the track, and there has been a lot of consistency in track here.

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Well, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn

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The op has been consistent but not the ensembles. All over the place.

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