Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The surface is still east of the Euro  and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end

How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The surface is still east of the Euro  and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end

 

Pretty much expected as the GFS usually ends up east of Euro with very strong storms. The only run of interest

today will be to see if the 12z Euro shifts east or holds serve for the folks out in Suffolk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

No one is missing anything. It was closer to the coast on this run near OBX but then went quickly to the northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?!  someone missing something here or am I missing something??

At 60 - it tucks into OBX  then the center races to where the best convection is .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At 60 - it tucks into OBX  then the center races to where the best convection is .

So this makes multiple models with multiple runs  with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So this makes multiple models with multiple runs  with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution

We can say convective feedback , but the GFS may be right . Just have to wait for all the guidance . If there`s a glaring outlier it will be picked up .

 

I like the Euro , I think it`s the model to follow IMO , so I will wait to see who and what looks like it at 230 .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, as is, this run of the GFS spares EVERYONE a major snowstorm except Nova Scotia. If this turns out to be a miss for all, it would really only be an upset for extreme SE MA. Most other areas were always "maybe"s with this one. And for our area, there were never more than 1 maybe 2 model runs in a row to show anything even too significant in the way of snowfall. But, we'll see where it goes. I know I've seen runs many times written off as "convective feedback errors" that turned out to be true with other models trending the same way

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is 0 consistency

Well, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. These wobbles in the track do have MUCH larger effects on areas like eastern Long Island though, I will say. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn, but mainly for eastern Long Island in regards to a direct hit from the coastal storm. For the rest of us, we have to hope for an inch or two from the inverted trough feature, which rarely do pan out

Sent from my iPhone

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is 0 consistency

that's not true, the euro, for one, has been pretty consistent with this storm.   consistency doesn't mean every model run will be exactly the same.  You cannot expect models to lock into smaller details days out, the idea is to get a good idea of the track, and there has been a lot of consistency in track here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn

Sent from my iPhone

The op has been consistent but not the ensembles. All over the place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...