Allsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 low by OBX becoming the primary one… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Center at OBX at 54 - much closer to the coast as compared to 6z at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 hr 60 1002 200 miles west of norfolk…..light snow in the area… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is still going to be a miss to the east. Looks like a miss for SNE also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 990 se of the bm….inch of snow for most at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 990 se of the bm….inch of snow for most at best... Way east for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The surface is still east of the Euro and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like convective feedback issues again. That further SE low forms under an area of heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like convective feedback issues again. That further SE low forms under an area of heavy convection. Yep. A lot of people are mentioning this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 so we toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The surface is still east of the Euro and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?! someone missing something here or am I missing something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The surface is still east of the Euro and ends up slightly east of 6z in the end Pretty much expected as the GFS usually ends up east of Euro with very strong storms. The only run of interest today will be to see if the 12z Euro shifts east or holds serve for the folks out in Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?! someone missing something here or am I missing something?? No one is missing anything. It was closer to the coast on this run near OBX but then went quickly to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yep. A lot of people are mentioning this. Any mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?! someone missing something here or am I missing something?? totally agree with your point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How could it be intially being labeled as close to the coast & @ OBX and then suddenly we r looking at 1 inch?! someone missing something here or am I missing something?? At 60 - it tucks into OBX then the center races to where the best convection is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This looks like the 12z ECMWF. I'm an amateur and even I can tell that this run is experiencing large convective feedback errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 so we toss? Can`t toss , it`s guidance . It counts . See where it falls with the rest of the globals at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This looks like the 12z ECMWF. I'm an amateur and even I can tell that this run is experiencing large convective feedback errors. Yea, but Im hearing from mets that they see no glaring issues regarding this... Makes you wonder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mt Holly posted this to Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.NewYorkNY.gov/photos/a.188187191210604.50415.177148895647767/799658060063511/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 At 60 - it tucks into OBX then the center races to where the best convection is . So this makes multiple models with multiple runs with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yea, but Im hearing from mets that they see no glaring issues regarding this... Makes you wonder.. To be fair, convective feedback is a known issue for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Im really just here..just because i love weather... but im not expecting a change with this storm. The consistency is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So this makes multiple models with multiple runs with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution We can say convective feedback , but the GFS may be right . Just have to wait for all the guidance . If there`s a glaring outlier it will be picked up . I like the Euro , I think it`s the model to follow IMO , so I will wait to see who and what looks like it at 230 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Solution lies in meteorology, toss modelology. So this makes multiple models with multiple runs with convestive issues. How th eheck do we resolve that then? because, ostensibly what we get is a masking of the 'true' solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Im really just here..just because i love weather... but im not expecting a change with this storm. The consistency is too much. There is 0 consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, as is, this run of the GFS spares EVERYONE a major snowstorm except Nova Scotia. If this turns out to be a miss for all, it would really only be an upset for extreme SE MA. Most other areas were always "maybe"s with this one. And for our area, there were never more than 1 maybe 2 model runs in a row to show anything even too significant in the way of snowfall. But, we'll see where it goes. I know I've seen runs many times written off as "convective feedback errors" that turned out to be true with other models trending the same way Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistencyWell, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. These wobbles in the track do have MUCH larger effects on areas like eastern Long Island though, I will say. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn, but mainly for eastern Long Island in regards to a direct hit from the coastal storm. For the rest of us, we have to hope for an inch or two from the inverted trough feature, which rarely do pan outSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistency that's not true, the euro, for one, has been pretty consistent with this storm. consistency doesn't mean every model run will be exactly the same. You cannot expect models to lock into smaller details days out, the idea is to get a good idea of the track, and there has been a lot of consistency in track here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I disagree. There is 0 consistency with the details of where the heavier banding will set up and who gets the heaviest precip and exactly where the low pressure system passes. However, it has been consistently modeled to pass well SE of the benchmark. If this changes, then the tables will turn Sent from my iPhone The op has been consistent but not the ensembles. All over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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