SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 fixed As Forky once noted a few yrs back, wishes rule this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No, I have probable cause to believe that the first low is bogus. It's a meso low from a mature MCS. IMO. Where is the support for this? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No, I have probable cause to believe that the first low is bogus. It's a meso low from a mature MCS. IMO. Question to anyone writing this off...is it because this statement is impossible, or unlikely enough that you don't want to get your hopes up at a slim chance that this could work out differently than modeled? Edit: sans the probable cause part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 As Forky once noted a few yrs back, wishes rule this forum.i'm not wish casting. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. The models are insisting on popping a secondary low under heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Question to anyone writing this off...is it because this statement is impossible, or unlikely enough that you don't want to get your hopes up at a slim chance that this could work out differently than modeled? Edit: sans the probable cause part. Its that the pattern does not support the idea of a low racing up the coast inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 i'm not wish casting. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. My personal opinion is that it is a possibility that the second low is being overdone. I don't see how that is unreasonable. Now saying it's the probable scenario is something completely different in its entirety. But we have seen models struggle with convection time and time again. Sometimes these meso lows are real, sometimes they're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Its that the pattern does not support the idea of a low racing up the coast inside the benchmark. Precisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Its that the pattern does not support the idea of a low racing up the coast inside the benchmark. When you say pattern, do you mean longwave pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 i'm not wish casting. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. The models are insisting on popping a secondary low under heavy convection. The forecast models average about 1-2 catastrophic disasters inside of 36-48 hours these days every 10-15 years or so...this event is definitely up there as a high probability event where that may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Its that the pattern does not support the idea of a low racing up the coast inside the benchmark.No it doesn't. But to me that SE low early on makes no sense and looks like convective feedback. The Euro was close to dumping this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The SE low drags the B. Zone east initially. I'd like to see what happens if it was removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The forecast models average about 1-2 catastrophic disasters inside of 36-48 hours these days every 10-15 years or so...this event is definitely up there as a high probability event where that may happen Question about this, even in these cases, I would imagine there are some rogue model runs or one stubborn model that has the alternative solution. Here, that just doesn't seem to be the case at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 can we track it ??? 200 users in the study hall ..so here we go>>>> WV loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48 SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Hey, the odds remain bleak. I didn't even look at the 18z NAM until hour 30. The 200mb jet structure really caught my eye on the 18z NAM and if it's just a blip run then that's fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I really don't believe we've written the final chapter on this one yet. I think the multiple lows around hour 24 are causing havoc. It's not so much the multiple lows but that the models close off too far east for us with main low formation too far off the SE Coast. We needed a tucked in initial low formation closer to Georgia and South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's not so much the multiple lows but that the models close off too far east for us. gfs_namer_045_500_vort_ht.gif But the baraclonic zone gets dragged east by the first low. I just have my doubts about everything being handled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The forecast models average about 1-2 catastrophic disasters inside of 36-48 hours these days every 10-15 years or so...this event is definitely up there as a high probability event where that may happen Wow. you are on still on board for that possibility & you are a serious red tagger. Okay now I will listen more to the science of it. So u think the possibility of the phantom most eastern low is true? ie consistent convestive feedback issues in most models thus far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wow. you are on still on board for that possibility & you are a serious red tagger. Okay now I will listen more to the science of it. So u think the possibility of the phantom most eastern low is true? ie consistent convestive feedback issues in most models thus far? He is on board for the event to possibly be catastrophic somewhere, but it would take an act of God for anything serious to occur in the NYC metro region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Question about this, even in these cases, I would imagine there are some rogue model runs or one stubborn model that has the alternative solution. Here, that just doesn't seem to be the case at all. I think some of 0z euro ensemble members (not sure about 12z) had decent hits so I guess those took into account some variances here and there. But yea overall we (NYC area and not points east) have basically been shut out from a decent snow fall for nearly every model run in the past 5 days which is remarkable. Edit: by saying remarkable I am referencing the consistency and not that we should have expected a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I think he means catastrophic mistakes by all of the models, not the effects of the storm being catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Too bad both buoys with a reasonable chance to see high winds haven't reported in months. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011 Main overview: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will wait for the 0z runs to see if this threat is real. Big storms can have surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sigh Only stating the obvious, and honestly, do we truly need a catastrophic event? I experienced Sandy like everyone here, and I thoroughly believe most don't want to repeat that experience again in their lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will wait for the 0z runs to see if this threat is real. Big storms can have surprises. Lol, you will just move it to 12z if the models are a miss. You truly havent made a determination as to the reality or lack thereof of the threat from any of the last 30 model suites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lol, you will just move it to 12z if the models are a miss. You truly havent made a determination as to the reality or lack thereof of the threat from any of the last 30 model suites? Anthony lives in hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will wait for the 0z runs to see if this threat is real. Big storms can have surprises. May I fast forward you to Dec 2014. Thats you're next real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Too bad both buoys with a reasonable chance to see high winds haven't reported in months. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011 Main overview: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ that's a sting jet. wild to get two storms like this nearby in the past three years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Only stating the obvious, and honestly, do we truly need a catastrophic event? I experienced Sandy like everyone here, and I thoroughly believe most don't want to repeat that experience again in their lifetime. he wasn't talking about a catastrophic event, he meant catastrophic in the sense that there would be a major model error this close to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 what a sounding. used this point and click map: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/model_soundings_conus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 he wasn't talking about a catastrophic event, he meant catastrophic in the sense that there would be a major model error this close to the storm. Haha yes, I tried explaining that also but I guess it got lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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