ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I value the NAM over the GFS at this range. Let's see the RGEM No way. Lol. I value the Nogaps and Kma more then the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Eyeballing it, to me the 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM. The GFS hangs into the SE low longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just 300-400 miles with the placement of the vortmax is all. Minimal impact on the end result. Ask yourself why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No way. Lol. I value the Nogaps and Kma more then the Nam. Time and time again the GFS has been the last to the party. It had Sandy looping near Cape Cod 48 hours prior while the Euro was into Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z RGEM 36hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Minimal at best. Try and find the answer for what else is still causing the same end result. H5 isn't the end all be all then here. if you haven't seen improvements today at H5 I'm not sure what you've been looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Eyeballing it, to me the 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM. The GFS hangs into the SE low longer. Your eyeballs are deceiving you. The low closer to Hatteras gets going a little faster, but its in the exact same place at 0Z tomorrow that the 12Z GFS said it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Eyeballing it, to me the 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM. The GFS hangs into the SE low longer. I really think the only advantage the NAM has is with showing the development of banding that may occur, and that is more within 24 hours. I wouldn't ever take it over the GFS for the development of a storm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Eyeballing it, to me the 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM. The GFS hangs into the SE low longer. To me looks almost the same as the 12z gfs, in fact GFS been pretty consistent for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Eyeballing it, to me the 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM. The GFS hangs into the SE low longer.So after this step, and if we get one more wobble, followed by a tick, we will only be one notch away from something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Minimal impact on the end result. Ask yourself why. Because it still pops a second low east of Florida??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Your eyeballs are deceiving you. The low closer to Hatteras gets going a little faster, but its in the exact same place at 0Z tomorrow that the 12Z GFS said it would be. Perhaps you could dampen (realistically) this excessive glee about the H5 improvements and why they aren't translating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is 0.00" of precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just a point.....one model never takes steps or motions toward another model. They are all just calculated possible solutions. Although some of the same data is ingested by the models, how they interpret it is different. The NAM just happens to be very bad at interpreting much of the data. If it wasn't, we would have had several 20-30" snowstorms this year and last Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Perhaps you could dampen (realistically) this excessive glee about the H5 improvements and why they aren't translating. Perhaps you could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is 0.00" of precip for NYC. Ton of dry air getting drawn down into the circulation from NW as it quickly scoots east an bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem is 0.00" of precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Perhaps you could dampen (realistically) this excessive glee about the H5 improvements and why they aren't translating. Its still too progressive. A bomb is nice and all but not if it goes in the wrong direction. John Earthlight has explained this already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Perhaps you could dampen (realistically) this excessive glee about the H5 improvements and why they aren't translating. I'd be interested in this also. It seems like every run in the last 2 days has shown improvement in the amplitude and placement of the western ridge with no significant downstream changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z RGEM 39hrs Stick a fork in this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are winds still a factor with this? Or is this too far east for high winds?60-80 knot sustained forecast for the well offshore waters which is the highest I have seen in a non tropical system. I often check out the Alaskan coastal forecasts for shts and giggles and have never seen that. The whole Atlantic is going to be moving and a massive just massive swell will hit the Caribbean later this week.Closer to home an advisory for Suffolk is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Where is the RGEM in terms of verification scores at 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z RGEM 39hrs Stick a forky in this threat fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'd be interested in this also. It seems like every run in the last 2 days has shown improvement in the amplitude and placement of the western ridge with no significant downstream changes. I think part of it is this storm has been on our radar for a long time, and analyzed to death. There will be changes from run-to-run, but in the end much of what has led to this storm being a miss (no blocking etc.) has not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Rgem sucks even for the Cape. The 1" of precip line doesn't begin until you get to Cuttyhunk Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Where is the RGEM in terms of verification scores at 36 hours? Better than the NAM but behind Euro which is #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Where is the RGEM in terms of verification scores at 36 hours? I can assure you it's a million times better then the nam as a model. Especially since they upgraded it last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I really don't believe we've written the final chapter on this one yet. I think the multiple lows around hour 24 are causing havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I really don't want to believe we've written the final chapter on this one yet. I hope the multiple lows around hour 24 are causing havoc. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 fixedNo, I have probable cause to believe that the first low is bogus. It's a meso low from a mature MCS. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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