Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sort of repeating myself, if the reliable models are all just wobbling a bit left and right of the center, and everything is has been sampled by the RAOB network, well, still small differences between the models, the Euro wobbles affect where the 0.5 inch precip line is inland Massachusetts and on shore or just offshore Suffolk County, the others are a touch left right, but the best that can really be expected is the actual low follows the Euro, and the 0Z Euro wobbles that 40 or 60 miles back West. There has been no trend in the last tow or three days, or maybe a bit of a farther OTS trend. Modelology from an amateur. Don't get sucked back in by the 18Z NAM. Go to bed on time, wake up a touch early, and see if globals changed any at 0Z. Probably just wobbled a hair East or West. But who knows, Dayton beat 'Cuse. But I wouldn't even let the 18Z GFS get me so excited I'd stay up past midnight EDT to see the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Don't get sucked back in by the 18Z NAM. Go to bed on time, wake up a touch early, and see if globals changed any at 0Z. Probably just wobbled a hair East or West. But who knows, Dayton beat 'Cuse. But I wouldn't even let the 18Z GFS get me so excited I'd stay up past midnight EDT to see the globals. I'm watching this for the storm itself, what a powerhouse... ...But to your point, people still play the lotto right haha Ed check you PMs when you have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The fat lady just took a seat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM running late or something...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Probably shows nothing, that's all. RGEM running late or something...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Probably shows nothing, that's all. No, I have link to the RGEM, it just isn't out yet, I guess my question should be "anyone know why the RGEM is late" or if my source is only late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM running late or something...? Yup, its been doing that alot lately at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's like a never ending black hole of torture I cant believe the freekin Nam did this. Just when I got out - they SUCK ME BACK IN ( Insert Pacino accent here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NOAA updated their snow maps for NYC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I dont think the westward move is over. Seems the easterly low was playing some trickery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Those thunderstorms are still going N of DR this run but the digging and is better it should tick west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In about the same spot @ 36 maybe a tad slower and deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GFS still east. Nothing like the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Remember everyone, it was the NAM. Let's not get all worked up. Seriously. We know how it is !! Other models will probably not support this Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Probably shows nothing, that's all. If it did it would be posted by anthony already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I dont think the westward move is over. Seems the easterly low was playing some trickery. It's not going to be enough to matter for us. We need significant changes in multiple influences with this setup to get a westward evolution. John has done a nice job illustrating what's preventing a major event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GFS still east. Nothing like the 18z NAM. Yea man, what do you make of those thunderstorms, its looks like a derecho racing east lol, i just don't buy that the gfs is handling that right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GFS still east. Nothing like the 18z NAM. GFS has been pretty consistent on how it plays this system out the last few days. I have to give it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are winds still a factor with this? Or is this too far east for high winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 the sfc placement at 39hrs is almost identical between the NAM and GFS. NAM showing a lot more precip on the NW side being the main difference so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are winds still a factor with this? Or is this too far east for high winds? It will be brisk as the storm passes, nothing damaging though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I value the NAM over the GFS at this range. Let's see the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif OPC 24hr surface look at that old school 1020mb line Dang me, dang meThey oughta take a rope and hang me and then the WPC jump back.... what is that???? yeah... it hits that 1020mb line ....cray z http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I value the NAM over the GFS at this range. Let's see the RGEM It will be interesting to see if it holds or backs off @ 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS has been pretty consistent on how it plays this system out the last few days. I have to give it that. The end result may have been the same, but plenty of change in the last 24 hours at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 the sfc placement at 39hrs is almost identical between the NAM and GFS. NAM showing a lot more precip on the NW side being the main difference so far The nam showing more than any other model? Ya don't say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I value the NAM over the GFS at this range. Let's see the RGEM not me, not with this kind of situation. I have seen the NAM do this (come back too far west) at this time frame so many times. The storm seems to invariably end up east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The end result may have been the same, but plenty of change in the last 24 hours at h5. Minimal at best. Try and find the answer for what else is still causing the same end result. H5 isn't the end all be all then here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Minimal at best. Try and find the answer for what else is still causing the same end result. H5 isn't the end all be all then here. Just 300-400 miles with the placement of the vortmax is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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