IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'd hit that. I don't buy it, but I'd hit it. They all look good after a few martinis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You should re-examine your map skills. Mistake. Sorry. 250miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Damn that further east low, this would have been tucked right into the coast. Lot of coulda woulda shoulda with this storm. Yeah, as in coulda/woulda... really SHOULDA not spent 10 hours of my life tracking this disaster ... or about 4 days when you count up the previous March debacles. And yet, I can't look away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's like a never ending black hole of torture This March....its been rough. If this storm is nothing, its been countless hours tracking a dusting from the 1 storm out of 3. That being said what a move on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Damn that further east low, this would have been tucked right into the coast. Lot of coulda woulda shoulda with this storm. 1-3" from a rapidly developing storm shooting NE reminds of March 8, 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ?? That was the big model failure for the 1-25-00 surprise storm. The 18z eta started bringing the storm back closer to the coast while the previous 0z and 12z that day were OTS. There was a lot of chatter at the time on what little web discussion outlets there were discussing modle runs at the time. Classic lost and found system where things looked good long range but disappeared until practically storm time. Some local AFDs had some interesting comments. That was about a rare of a model mishap in post 80's or 90's that I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 1-3" from a rapidly developing storm shooting NE reminds of March 8, 2005 Its nothing like March 8 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That was the big model failure for the 1-25-00 surprise storm. The 18z eta started bring the storm back closer to the coast while the previous 0z and 12z that day were OTS. There was a lot of chatter at the time on what little web discussion outlets there were discussing modle runs at the time. OK, gotchya. Might want to double check the date you actually wrote in your post, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This March....its been rough. If this storm is nothing, its been countless hours tracking a dusting from the 1 storm out of 3. That being said what a move on the NAM. The thing about this storm is that it has never really been a hit and yet definitely tracked here like it was. I get part of it, the storm does really blow up, and it is the end of the season. But you can't blame the models this time, they have been saying it would be a miss for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The thing about this storm is that it has never really been a hit and yet definitely tracked here like it was. I get part of it, the storm does really blow up, and it is the end of the season. But you can't blame the models this time, they have been saying it would be a miss for days on end. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I will not be sucked in to this. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I will not be sucked in to this. sorry probably wise. I feel like I have seen the NAM do this many times with coastals--namely bring it too far west for a run or two before correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 OK, gotchya. Might want to double check the date you actually wrote in your post, though. That was one of the few times that it was actually worth while to look at an 18z model run for a big pickup under 24 hrs out from storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That was the big model failure for the 1-25-00 surprise storm. The 18z eta started bringing the storm back closer to the coast while the previous 0z and 12z that day were OTS. There was a lot of chatter at the time on what little web discussion outlets there were discussing modle runs at the time. Classic lost and found system where things looked good long range but disappeared until practically storm time. Some local AFDs had some interesting comments. That was about a rare of a model mishap in post 80's or 90's that I have seen. Was that the one where a forecaster from Silver Springs MD put out a bulletin that said I don't care what the model shows, the radar doesn't lie. I wish I had kept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Typhoon Tip's 18z NAM analysis Boxing Day b**ch bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 H5 heights are aligned slightly differently, but the biggest difference between 18z and 12z is when the low is off the Florida/Georgia coast, it is actually 4mb weaker at 12z than 18z. It doesn't pop the second low off of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Normally when the NAM is west of other guidance, it is because it is overamped, not underamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro and now the 18z NAM are starting to dump the development of the initial low that kicks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If (and its a big if) the 0Z NAM kept up with the 18Z, I might give it credit, but it *has* to have some run-to-run continuity before I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What a thing of beauty. While I'm not expecting any kind of crazy westward adjustment but... if it were to happen, it might be said that this 18Z NAM run started the kickback. That said, it is the 18Z NAM. I toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If (and its a big if) the 0Z NAM kept up with the 18Z, I might give it credit, but it *has* to have some run-to-run continuity before I do. The GFS has been moving pretty significantly as well. The last 4 GFS runs have all featured a continued sharpening of the trough and increase in strength of the Azores high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look at that .5 so close to colts neck. Oops. Sorry said that out loud. Feel like a test monkey. Getting all excited over colors on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I would not get sucked back into this storm. We MAY be able to sneak in an inch or so at best, but anything more is off the table from my simple novice perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look at how the 200mb winds bend back towards the coast over NJ at 18z Versus 12z for the same hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Geez look at the banding over eastern ME through Nova Scotia Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's in the low 30's right now. If we take the NAM verbatim, we would get 1-3". March climo issues? Accumulation issues? Nope. Ground is cold and is preparing for the snow like you were jumping out a window and there were people ready to catch you. Sun Angle? Nope. Timing is overnight. Rates? We dont need 35dbz to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 H5 heights are aligned slightly differently, but the biggest difference between 18z and 12z is when the low is off the Florida/Georgia coast, it is actually 4mb weaker at 12z than 18z. It doesn't pop the second low off of Florida. Yup I saw the 4k nam trying to do that yesterday...it should handle the thunderstorms better than the globals. Ill take the 18z gfs for $100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS at about 5:30, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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