Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I think 952 mb is the record for a non-tropical within 150 miles of the BM. The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10" (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor'easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini,"Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) T The Euro has a pressure of 951mb around 40N66W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 While this one is pretty hard to swallow, outside of one GGEM run that went bonkers, this never looked like more than a glancing blow for our area. True. It was close enough to keep our interest, but the guidance as a whole did well keeping this offshore and a non factor for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 While this one is pretty hard to swallow, outside of one GGEM run that went bonkers, this never looked like more than a glancing blow for our area. Yeah I think that's the point that should remembered for this storm. It never showed a big hit for our area ! It did not trend away from a big hit by any means. It just did not become a big hit. Models did a great job Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 True. It was close enough to keep our interest, but the guidance as a whole did well keeping this offshore and a non factor for most. I think a lot of us just assumed that the models couldn't be right four and five days out. Just goes to show you that the way the models handle one storm has nothing to do with what will happen with the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I am just super amped about more rainstorms in the future. I am a lover of mud and the inability to partake in a single, solitary outdoor activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I think a lot of us just assumed that the models couldn't be right four and five days out. Just goes to show you that the way the models handle one storm has nothing to do with what will happen with the next storm. Good thing we weren't in the bullseye so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I am just super amped about more rainstorms in the future. I am a lover of mud and the inability to partake in a single, solitary outdoor activity. Are you more amped or less amped than 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thinking of chartering a boat out of Cape May, who's with me??????!!!!!!!! Do you want to be in a Sebastian Junger novel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro has a pressure of 951mb around 40N66W Probably some gusts 90-100 mph on the open seas way out there. That will result in a really clean swell for the surfers with a favorable NNW offshore wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Following the UKMET's example, the ECMWF made a big move in the direction of the U.S. guidance at 12z. Many parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England saw reductions in qpf of 25% or more. Baltimore and Washington, DC were among the small number of areas seeing an increase in qpf. Below are the changes in qpf for select locations: NOTE: Not all the qpf is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It didn't take much for the tropics of VA to get a last minute shift. Ocean City, MD has (12z qpf): NAM: ~0.75" GFS: ~0.5" GGEM: ~0.75" RGEM: ~0.85" Other models sound like they are around the 0.75" mark. Assuming 5:1 ratio, that's 3-5" probably for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sort of repeating myself, if the reliable models are all just wobbling a bit left and right of the center, and everything is has been sampled by the RAOB network, well, still small differences between the models, the Euro wobbles affect where the 0.5 inch precip line is inland Massachusetts and on shore or just offshore Suffolk County, the others are a touch left right, but the best that can really be expected is the actual low follows the Euro, and the 0Z Euro wobbles that 40 or 60 miles back West. There has been no trend in the last tow or three days, or maybe a bit of a farther OTS trend. Modelology from an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Following the UKMET's example, the ECMWF made a big move in the direction of the U.S. guidance at 12z. Many parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England saw reductions in qpf of 25% or more. Baltimore and Washington, DC were among the small number of areas seeing an increase in qpf. Below are the changes in qpf for select locations: NOTE: Not all the qpf is snow. Great chart Don, thanks for making and sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ocean City, MD has (12z qpf): NAM: ~0.75" GFS: ~0.5" GGEM: ~0.75" RGEM: ~0.85" Other models sound like they are around the 0.75" mark. Assuming 5:1 ratio, that's 3-5" probably for them. Our annual golf trip starts Wednesday afternoon in Ocean City. We play about 8 rounds of golf over 5 days. Hmmmm. You think snow at the shore? We may need to change plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Our annual golf trip starts Wednesday afternoon in Ocean City. We play about 8 rounds of golf over 5 days. Hmmmm. You think snow at the shore? We may need to change plans. I haven't looked at soundings down there but I would imagine a good amount of that is snow. The NAM has most of the precip falling at 33F, meaning it's probably wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Still a small cluster close to the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Hope for the best, but expect the worst and you will never be disappointed! I am looking for 1 - 3" on the east end, any more and I will consider it a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I believe I predicted this middle finger dry zone yesterday ! You did!!!!! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 the total snowfall map for the month of March from Virginia north is going to be a massive cluster fook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 a Luca Brasi storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I told you ☺ Wait till 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well I've been saying this all month and I'll say it again... can I just get my 0.2 in. so I can hit 60, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Watch we get an April snowstorm lol Bring on hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The 18z NAM is like over 100 miles further NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Hits Cape Hatteras pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Coastal MD and DE nailed at hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Coastal MD and DE nailed at hour 33 Yup, I hate the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Don't get sucked back in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 This will undoubtedly trend to the point where we can watch the CCB sitting off the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's scraping Atlantic city with the very heavy banding. Moderate snow almost to NYC, un freaken believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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