ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 And that's all she wrote. Euro has nothing for NYC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Almost 1" QPF at Ocean City MD through 42 hours. Had barely .5 last night. It just wouldn't be this teaser month of March if Ocean City, MD didn't get another big snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 00z actually had a smaller western low pop at 06z WED. This run is more consolidated, thus the precip shield is going to end up a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Still 1"+ QPF for much of east/southeast cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is in the 950's at 54 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 we get nothing But I want my flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What s disaster. Really depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If the low was weaker and less wrapped up even with this track a lot of the area would have done fairly well. That's one of the problems with these very wrapped up coastal lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 12z Euro is more consolidated and further SE with the storm. The eastern low takes over faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Still 1"+ QPF for much of east/southeast cape cod. The eastern Cape is almost to 1.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 If the low was weaker and less wrapped up even with this track a lot of the area would have done fairly well. That's one of the problems with these very wrapped up coastal lows. No, the problem is that there is no blocking, the ridge collapses out west, and the trajectory of the disturbances on the eastern periphery of the ridge were east/southeast to begin with. If you fix one of those three things, this storm is tucked in near OC MD at 48 hours and we're sitting under the best frontogenesis we've seen in our lifetimes. But you know what they say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 12z Euro is more consolidated and further SE with the storm. It's actually well west, just more consolidated with its moisture fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No, the problem is that there is no blocking, the ridge collapses out west, and the trajectory of the disturbances on the eastern periphery of the ridge were east/southeast to begin with. If you fix one of those three things, this storm is tucked in near OC MD at 48 hours and we're sitting under the best frontogenesis we've seen in our lifetimes. But you know what they say.. There's always next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 And that's all she wrote. Euro has nothing for NYC now. I had a feeling the Euro would join the other dry models. The inverted trough idea is another bogus mirage as they usually are, and the CCB is going to miss us way to the east, so what mechanism is there to give us organized snow when the low wraps up? That all should be well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lo-res down to 953 mb 18z wed at 40.5N and 67.0 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro also warmed up NYC and has a high of 41 degrees now tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No, the problem is that there is no blocking, the ridge collapses out west, and the trajectory of the disturbances on the eastern periphery of the ridge were east/southeast to begin with. If you fix one of those three things, this storm is tucked in near OC MD at 48 hours and we're sitting under the best frontogenesis we've seen in our lifetimes. But you know what they say.. I think the last thing you mentioned is the real dagger here. The other two we could have managed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro also warmed up NYC and has a high of 41 degrees now tomorrow afternoon. Can almost smell the baseball games already. Bring on the first slight risk of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 He's too busy watching the weather channel he is too young to know what animal house is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Bring on the first slight risk of the year. Havent we had enough fail recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Now it's time to find out if I can get my heavy rainstorm on Saturday that the GFS is promising me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Now it's time to find out if I can get my heavy rainstorm on Saturday that the GFS is promising me. you know that will verify a week out--rainstorms always do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's actually well west, just more consolidated with its moisture fields. Look at 42hr, the western low is merging with eastern low quicker. The last run was more separate and deeper with the western low, at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Havent we had enough fail recently? Oops, I meant "Enhanced" risk. We have entirely new terminology for which to get no thunderstorm events with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro also warmed up NYC and has a high of 41 degrees now tomorrow afternoon. Must be the Euro realizing that we're part of a subtropical climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look at 54hr, the western low is merging with eastern low quicker. The last run was more separate and deeper with the western low, at the same time. I only saw a single low pressure this run, not sure what you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 you know that will verify a week out--rainstorms always do... Give me one event this year that isn't a total snooze fest or give me death.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look at 54hr, the western low is merging with eastern low quicker. The last run was more separate and deeper with the western low, at the same time. The lift and upper air support is stronger over the eastern low, which allows it to take over. The baroclinic zone is way offshore and the upper air pattern is too progressive to allow for a tucked in low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I only saw a single low pressure this run, not sure what you're referring to. I have Wxbell maps, I can see the higher-resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ^^ That spontaneously posted. Each model that wobbles the other way, some near weenie suicide or it is a bad run. Even the 3 inches in Queens in late March, at least one pro-met will call a failure to troll the weenies. And, BTW, sure, I'm disappointed the once every two decades late March storm is very unlikely to happen, and hoping for a miracle down 7 points, 16 seconds, one time out left and the other team in the double bonus, but if the actual storm drops 3 inches, and coats the lawns for a day, I'd call that a victory. Like the #11 seed taking the #3 seed to OT before losing, sort of. Painful, but nothing to be ashamed of. A 14 seed just beat a 3 seed a couple days ago. That's why they actually play the games instead of just analyzing the stats and declaring a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.