IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm going to go out on a limb here and call BS. Look here, we have one low. Then magically 3 hours later we have two Now maybe I'm wrong, but isn't their a chance that this is just a meso low associated with a strong MCS that the models are over emphasizing? I know that sometimes in more traditional miller A's really strong convection down south can sometimes rob the developing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Agreed, any chance that this first low is just a bogus area of strong convection that the models are not interpreting correctly? I don't think it's bogus, but they could easily be overestimating its intensity. However, if the models begin to favor the second low, you will see that low weaken (less convection associated with it), as the upper levels shift correspondingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 UKMET: Thank you sir, may I have another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS is actually turning this into a coastal VA/Delmarva storm...with the 2nd tucked in low very close to the coast at that lattitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm not sure who to believe at this point. Im driving from Orlando to Warren County NJ today and tomorrow. Sounds like most of you feel I won't see much tomorrow. But NWS has me in snow from Richmond VA all the way home.. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 what are people hoping for at this point? a coating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thank you sir, may I have another! Is that 6 hour or 12 hour precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm not sure who to believe at this point. Im driving from Orlando to Warren County NJ today and tomorrow. Sounds like most of you feel I won't see much tomorrow. But NWS has me in snow from Richmond VA all the way home.. Sent from my SCH-I545 Regardless you won't need to worry. Wet roads at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Is that 6 hour or 12 hour precip? I think it's 6 hours. The hour 60 panels on the ukmet are 12 hours. We can get a total precip map of the ukmet when meteocentre updates, but that's at about 1:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 what are people hoping for at this point? a coating? The maybe 5% to 10% chance schools will be cancelled in Western Suffolk County and that Metfan actually accumulates an inch or two on grassy surfaces in Brooklyn, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Is that 6 hour or 12 hour precip? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 what are people hoping for at this point? a coating? I've been out of the game for days out here. Just hoping for something remotely interesting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS is actually turning this into a coastal VA/Delmarva storm...with the 2nd tucked in low very close to the coast at that lattitude... That's what I've been watching for a little bit. How crazy is that 4 days before April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The double low was what gave us that one huge GGEM run, but all consensus points to the first low that's further east dominating even if two lows form. Unless that dramatically changes, then it should be a miss minus a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 what are people hoping for at this point? a coating? maybe people are just interested in watching the evolution of a storm they've been tracking for 9 days now play out. I know, I know - a crazy thought on a weather forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm very surprised to see Upton and mt holly so bullish with 2-4" regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Regardless you won't need to worry. Wet roads at most That's what I'm hoping.. but all the NWS stations are showing 3 inch accumulation Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm very surprised to see Upton and mt holly so bullish with 2-4" regionwide Isn't that what the Euro had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Another wobble west and I can see Eastern Atlantic county and Eastern Ocean counties being put under a Winter storm watch . The Euro OP puts down 4 inches of snow down there right along the shore . ( Think that`s warning criteria for them . ) It wants to snow there this month , and it looks like they are going to be the closest to the 2nd center . Not out of the question . I would think Mt Holly`s new map may go 2 to 4 for them as of now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Off topic but the GFS is back to showing a lot of rain for Saturday. Over 2" worth, and no, that doesn't include whatever we get during the whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Isn't that what the Euro had? It is. WPC seems to prefer the ECMWF right now (early morning discussion). Given the UKMET's having moved into closer agreement with the American suite of models, I suspect that the Euro is somewhat of an outlier and that its output may be skewing some of the forecast numbers. It also should be noted that the 3/24 0z ECMWF moved toward the GFS from the 3/23 12z run. If the 12z run shifts even closer to the GFS, that would increase confidence that a model consensus had emerged. If my assumption is correct, the NYC metro area (NYC, EWR, HPN, BDR, LGA, JFK) would probably wind up with a coating to perhaps an inch of snow; Suffolk County would see 1"-3" from Islip westward and 2"-4" from Westhampton eastward. Nantucket and Cape Cod would probably see the largest amounts with 4"-8" and some 10" figures but snowfall amounts would fall off toward Boston (maybe 2"-4" there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It is. WPC seems to prefer the ECMWF right now (early morning discussion). Given the UKMET's having moved into closer agreement with the American suite of models, I suspect that the Euro is somewhat of an outlier and that its output may be skewing some of the forecast numbers. It also should be noted that the 3/24 0z ECMWF moved toward the GFS from the 3/23 12z run. If the 12z run shifts even closer to the GFS, that would increase confidence that a model consensus had emerged. If my assumption is correct, the NYC metro area (NYC, EWR, HPN, BDR, LGA, JFK) would probably wind up with a coating to perhaps an inch of snow; Suffolk County would see 1"-3" from Islip westward and 2"-4" from Westhampton eastward. Nantucket and Cape Cod would probably see the largest amounts with 4"-8" and some 10" figures but snowfall amounts would fall off toward Boston (maybe 2"-4" there). Amazing Boston was looking at 20 and the Cape close to 28 just 2.5 days ago .Those are the ones that sting for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looks like a PNA spike incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Amazing Boston was looking at 20 and the Cape close to 28 just 2.5 days ago .Those are the ones that sting for a while. I agree. The consolation prize of seeing a bombogenesis event probably won't console very many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Off topic but the GFS is back to showing a lot of rain for Saturday. Over 2" worth, and no, that doesn't include whatever we get during the whiff. Now that's climo right there. This would be either snow or some form of frozen precip in January. High to the north with low slipping to our south, but by now the cold is not there because of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 nobody should be shocked this storm is sleeping with the fish's...we'll be lucky to get a measurable snowfall especially in Central Park...1960 ended a great March on the 26th with record cold and a dusting of snow...2014 could be going out the same way...The last four days of March 1960 were mild and this year could be the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Amazing Boston was looking at 20 and the Cape close to 28 just 2.5 days ago .Those are the ones that sting for a while. I am sure with the forecasted -NAO to develop they'll get a good wet snow dump in April in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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