MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Haha spoke too soon there Sent from my iPhone I don't see 3-6 for NYC on any snow map. Looks like 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 fyi NAM is 1-3 for NYC not sure what others are seeing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I would not get too worked up over the NAM there is no other guidance that remotely looks like this . Just wait for the rest of the suite with new RAOB s in it and don't worry if its 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 , if its alone its wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Another solution is an inverted trough which the models might throw out there. The 12z Nam is still showing it. Congrats Philly and SNJ on the Nam. The main low is way out to sea. So this storm is doing everything to miss us every which way it can. Gotta read the tea leaves here. has any model shown a hit at all for Central to NE NJ? I haven't seen a mention of it. The fact that I don't see the usual NJ cohort here tells me a lot, except for earthlight who seems fairly confident it ain't our storm. Which has been evident for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see 3-6 for NYC on any snow map. Looks like 1-3 inches. Yep. It's definitely south of 6z and definitely does not "nail" us by any stretch of the imagination. It's a period of snow for a few hours...maybe up to moderate intensity. Might have trouble accumulating though if not heavy enough. South of here, maybe a few inches Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So this storm is doing everything to miss us every which way it can. Gotta read the tea leaves here. has any model shown a hit at all for Central to NE NJ? I haven't seen a mention of it. The fact that I don't see the usual NJ cohort here tells me a lot, except for earthlight who seems fairly confident it ain't our storm. Which has been evident for awhile now. Nothing is evident yet. A big storm is looking less likely for NYC but points east is still very much in the game . A light to moderate snowfall is pretty much still on the table for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 fyi NAM is 1-3 for NYC not sure what others are seeing.. I did not say 3-6 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nothing is evident yet. A big storm is looking less likely for NYC but points east is still very much in the game . A light to moderate snowfall is pretty much still on the table for NYC. Nothing is evident yet. A big storm is looking less likely for NYC but points east is still very much in the game . A light to moderate snowfall is pretty much still on the table for NYC. Eh, not interested in points east. I'm west of the city so that doesn't mean squat to me. It's a big forum ( too big IMO ) so I understand people on far off points of LI are here, but they are as far from me as DC, and the weather about as relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So this storm is doing everything to miss us every which way it can. Gotta read the tea leaves here. has any model shown a hit at all for Central to NE NJ? I haven't seen a mention of it. The fact that I don't see the usual NJ cohort here tells me a lot, except for earthlight who seems fairly confident it ain't our storm. Which has been evident for awhile now. The mostly statistically accurate model in this time frame by far, the European model, its ensemble mean has you down for 4 inches of snow, so not sure what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So this storm is doing everything to miss us every which way it can. Gotta read the tea leaves here. has any model shown a hit at all for Central to NE NJ? I haven't seen a mention of it. The fact that I don't see the usual NJ cohort here tells me a lot, except for earthlight who seems fairly confident it ain't our storm. Which has been evident for awhile now. This hasn`t been you`re storm or mine for some time now . The big solution area wide has been gone for a while . The last 2 days have leaned from NYC east and more so across Long Island and E CT . NYC is only 50 miles west of .8 on the Euro , but the bomb is east of us . There`s not a lot of room for error across the Island . 50 mile slide east take a lot of people off the field . We will see if there is a small wobble at 12z , but no one is expecting a 100 to 200 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The mostly statistically accurate model in this time frame by far, the European model, its ensemble mean has you down for 4 inches of snow, so not sure what you are talking about. I am not getting that impression here; 1-3 is what I keep reading. But 4 inches is hardly anything to get excited over. It would pad the season totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The mostly statistically accurate model in this time frame by far, the European model, its ensemble mean has you down for 4 inches of snow, so not sure what you are talking about. He just likes to spout off... We should create a forum for his town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are in the heavy snow threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 He just likes to spout off... We should create a forum for his town. An excellent idea..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For those paying too close attention to the Nam, remember it showed a crazy sleet bomb around 72hrs after the last suppressed storm. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are in the heavy snow threat Too far west, IMO, but this is a monster storm (probably the most exiting synoptically of the season) and there are often surprises on the western flank. Upper level energy diving in from the west, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 16. One member shows 15+. Thats actually kind of shocking. Let see what the day brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the inverted trough is real, there's a good chance it would set up over us given it's to our SW now and they do trend NE as we get closer. The fact that the mid levels don't close off right away could be great because the snow shield will be spread out instead of confined to the CCB, which looks to be to our east for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 An excellent idea..... You realize you are the same distance from Long Branch as you are from Long Beach right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I would not get too worked up over the NAM there is no other guidance that remotely looks like this . Just wait for the rest of the suite with new RAOB s in it and don't worry if its 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 , if its alone its wrong . Seriously, why even discuss it when it is, and has been, so far off from the other models (time and time again)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are in the heavy snow threat how come this differs so much from everyone elses forecast and also all the model data available ? Where is the actual link to this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What the heck is your problem? Does the Euro ensemble mean not show exactly what I said? Wasn't talking about you, bro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thats actually kind of shocking. Let see what the day brings. Yeah a third of the individual members show a significant to major hit in NYC hit on this last run of the Euro and they didn't on the run before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What the heck is your problem? Does the Euro ensemble mean not show exactly what I said? He was talking to the poster who said he doesn't care if it snows on long island , not you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 how come this differs so much from everyone elses forecast and also all the model data available ? Where is the actual link to this ? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Alright, you accidentally quoted me then. Go back to the post you had quoted... I was supporting your response to wpruf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You realize you are the same distance from Long Branch as you are from Long Beach right ? No I did not. Like most in NJ, LI is a strange place that you have to go through a lot of trouble to get to. And no one we know lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What the heck is your problem? Does the Euro ensemble mean not show exactly what I said? He was talking about me, so relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Go back to the post you had quoted... I was supporting your response to wpruf Got it. I deleted my stuff. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 WOW! is it touchy in here, boy do close misses bring out the hostile in people in this place guys even if this doesn't hit LI is it worth this bickering? its weather that we cant control. that said I am not giving up on the EURO, its been my model of choice and I will use it regardless what the GFS is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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