earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 dont think that is going to make much of a difference in the end.... Not here, but the surface low developing farther northwest will be huge for Cape Cod and possibly parts of SE SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The ridge axis is more neutrally tilted which is causing the energy diving through the plains to dig further west initially. The low is till forming near JAX but it's developing faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro has been rather consistent in providing 0.25 - 0.50 of QPF from west to east across the island for days now. The Euro and Upton leading the way for 2 - 4" across LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Really can't believe how far south the baroclinic zone is for March. Pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 6z GFS ensembles show surface low development more near OBX. But it most still go out, due to flow still be being SW to NE: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not here, but the surface low developing farther northwest will be huge for Cape Cod and possibly parts of SE SNE. I think everyone here is hoping for at least 1-3 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 6z GFS ensembles show surface low development more near OBX. But it most still go out, due to flow still be being SW to NE: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Yeah, it's inevitable. The mid/upper level flow orientation is poor for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If you look at the 500mb jet the entire orientation is different this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In the end, by 15z Tuesday the surface low is in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The trough is noticeably sharper this run than 06z. Should come NW of 06z. Not that it will be enough to get us back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 this is very frustrating. I know, a worthless post. Just thought I would share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 this is very frustrating. I know, a worthless post. Just thought I would share. I agree, nothing wrong with honesty at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The differences between 00z and 12z at hour 30 are comical regarding the trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 look at the bright side guys! we're now that much closer to sundress and bikini season! this probably doesn't excite people like Snow88 because he'd probably like to see a raging blizzard wedensday instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Nam is developing a double low at 33 hours with another low forming on top of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 this is very frustrating. I know, a worthless post. Just thought I would share. how is this frustrating? the models have been showing a miss for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 look at the bright side guys! we're now that much closer to sundress and bikini season! What size bikini do you wear? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 how is this frustrating? the models have been showing a miss for days credit is warranted to you forky, you called this days ago and you were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 look at the bright side guys! we're now that much closer to sundress and bikini season! What size bikini do you wear? Lol im putting my beach body back in shape honey the beaches eye candy is what im talking about! dark shades and your set.....and of course going into the water and doing what you do there to begin with lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 We finally got a nice, sharp trough axis this run, but it needs to be centered over Tennessee instead of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 We finally got a nice, sharp trough axis this run, but it needs to be centered over Tennessee instead of North Carolina. There is one that I can remember that phased near Florida. 3/2/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is the kind of run that makes you want to bang your head against the wall. This is NW of 00z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 credit is warranted to you forky, you called this days ago and you were spot on. It was fairly easy to see how this could miss out to sea from the beginning. We always needed a very early phase and favorable trough/ridge orientation, but those couldn't line up. Progressive +NAO driven patterns are very rarely favorable for us, which is why I always hedged towards a miss. For a couple of days, the phasing seemed like it could be in time, but then once the southern stream wave trended towards a later and later phase because of its speed, I knew it was over for major impacts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It was fairly easy to see how this could miss out to sea from the beginning. We always needed a very early phase and favorable trough/ridge orientation, but those couldn't line up. Progressive +NAO driven patterns are very rarely favorable for us, which is why I always hedged towards a miss. For a couple of days, the phasing seemed like it could be in time, but then once the southern stream wave trended towards a later and later phase because of its speed, I knew it was over for major impacts here. also a pretty good heads up that this might be a miss have been the 5 days in a row of every model having the storm miss east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is the kind of run that makes you want to bang your head against the wall. This is NW of 00z so far. It's almost a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It sucks that the low kicks out as it goes up the coast. If not, this would have been a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It has shifted the developing CCB about 75 miles SW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's almost a complete miss. Thanks for the info! Their is more to meteorology than looking at a QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Real subtle differences but noticeable. For example a height contour that was east of Cape Cod at 06z is now near Boston this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.