Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 As bitter a pill as this is to swallow seeing a sub 950 low just e of the BM with great late march temps in place if the euro went from the 20 inches it had in Boston 3 runs ago to the 5 or so it has there now and that happened here the smashing of I pads and computer screens would have been deafening ( but prob really fun ) This is not the first nor the last whiff weather lovers will see here , take it in stride. Stuff like this should make everyone appreciate what an anomaly 60 to 70 inches of snow is at 40 N on the coastal plain. Good job this Winter . The killer for me is being at 55 inches on 2/1/11 and then again 2/18/14 and being pretty much done for the winter at that point. Oh well. I lived through the 80's and 90's so should be pretty happy with those 2 years but have gotten spoiled in the last decade for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'll allow this post to stick around only for comedic value and because this is the last threat of the winter. But if the GGEM doesn't show a nice hit for DC to BOS I can ban your account. All i can say is poleshiftnow better hope the GGEM goes on some powerful drugs to make it lean west alot or it will game over for him. Btw poleshiftnow shouldve bet the CRAS instead since its known for being the most wrapped up model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The killer for me is being at 55 inches on 2/1/11 and then again 2/18/14 and being pretty much done for the winter at that point. Oh well. I lived through the 80's and 90's so should be pretty happy with those 2 years but have gotten spoiled in the last decade for sure. These shaves were typical in the 80s. And when you did get a system it would cut. The storm explodes so the satellite images that come up wed as the sun comes up should be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 As bitter a pill as this is to swallow seeing a sub 950 low just e of the BM with great late march temps in place if the euro went from the 20 inches it had in Boston 3 runs ago to the 5 or so it has there now and that happened here the smashing of I pads and computer screens would have been deafening ( but prob really fun ) This is not the first nor the last whiff weather lovers will see here , take it in stride. Stuff like this should make everyone appreciate what an anomaly 60 to 70 inches of snow is at 40 N on the coastal plain. Good job this Winter . How great have the models been with this event in particular? Unless something changes last minute they've been essentially dead nuts since 150 hours out. We notice it less since we're getting screwed, but man what a performance. Especially by the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How great have the models been with this event in particular? Unless something changes last minute they've been essentially dead nuts since 150 hours out. We notice it less since we're getting screwed, but man what a performance. Especially by the Euro ensembles. I said the other day , people don`t realize the window the Euro and it`s ensembles threw this through from 200 hours away . You are talking about numerically solving an equation that size in scope over that distance and have the center miss by 150 mile 8 days later . In the grand scheme of things , I think its a great job . I know it #$ for all of us and takes up a lot of time , but it was fun . Blizzard watch is now up for CC as this gets down to a CAT 2 hurricane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 -NAO develops after the bomb this week. But the PV is Northern Canada and there is pararde of systems coming out Pacific. We aren't getting more snowstorms out this pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 These shaves were typical in the 80s. And when you did get a system it would cut. The storm explodes so the satellite images that come up wed as the sun comes up should be sick. It's going to be a real beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Let's see if the -NAO actually develops...it's been modeled numerous times this winter 7-10 days out only to fade from modeling as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 There we go, we finally get our NAO in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 -NAO develops after the bomb this week. But the PV is Northern Canada and there is pararde of systems coming out Pacific. We aren't getting more snowstorms out this pattern: It's mostly an east based NAO and the PV has retreated far too much. It actually could be warm here with a ridge under that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How great have the models been with this event in particular? Unless something changes last minute they've been essentially dead nuts since 150 hours out. We notice it less since we're getting screwed, but man what a performance. Especially by the Euro ensembles. Seriously. The only performance so dead nuts on I can remember was how the Euro handled the Feb 13th event but that was ONE model. Every one of these models has shown an off shore track for us with little wobble for days and days. Wouldn't it be great for them to lock in on a blockbuster like that? Never seems to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro is darn close to snow next Wednesday. Look at it at 240 hrs. Has temperatures back in the 30's here, so does its ensemble mean, and there is a storm approaching from the west. You might be surprised. -NAO develops after the bomb this week. But the PV is Northern Canada and there is pararde of systems coming out Pacific. We aren't getting more snowstorms out this pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Seriously. The only performance so dead nuts on I can remember was how the Euro handled the Feb 13th event but that was ONE model. Every one of these models has shown an off shore track for us with little wobble for days and days. Wouldn't it be great for them to lock in on a blockbuster like that? Never seems to happen! It isn't over yet. The storm has not happened, in fact it does not even exist yet and won't until tomorrow. We don't yet know if there might be more surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Let's see if the -NAO actually develops...it's been modeled numerous times this winter 7-10 days out only to fade from modeling as we get closer. There's been an SSW event recently and we do have big low going up there. So I think it's for real. But the pacific pattern is terrible. It's mostly an east based NAO and the PV has retreated far too much. It actually could be warm here with a ridge under that pattern. At worst, we can see a cut-offs or backdoor fronts. But I agree, it can get warm in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro is darn close to snow next Wednesday. Look at it at 240 hrs. Has temperatures back in the 30's here, so does its ensemble mean, and there is a storm approaching from the west. You might be surprised. We're really going down this road again? I'd say 90% chance NYC is done with accumulating snow for the winter. For you it's probably more like 60-70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's mostly an east based NAO and the PV has retreated far too much. It actually could be warm here with a ridge under that pattern. Yeah i mentioned that in the warmth thread, sometimes a -nao in spring can lead to nice weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 We're really going down this road again? I'd say 90% chance NYC is done with accumulating snow for the winter. For you it's probably more like 60-70%. Tomorrow night has more then a 10% chance of accumulating snow. Especially at your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Tomorrow night has more then a 10% chance of accumulating snow. Especially at your location. If the Euro is right and I have 0.30" or so liquid, I could see it, but if it's the GFS that's right and we just see some snow showers for 24 hours, I doubt any of that will stick. The GFS seems to be standing firm on way offshore and the Euro seems to be backing down more and more, so I'm thinking the way offshore solution wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If the Euro is right and I have 0.30" or so liquid, I could see it, but if it's the GFS that's right and we just see some snow showers for 24 hours, I doubt any of that will stick. The GFS seems to be standing firm on way offshore and the Euro seems to be backing down more and more, so I'm thinking the way offshore solution wins out. 6z GFS Forms a 2nd low much closer to the coast. Precip improved but didn't fully respond: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 All the models shifted west. GFS looks good but the precip shield doesn't. Euro is still the wettest model. Euro control run has 3 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So far on the 12z NAM everything is a tick SW or W as compared to 06z. This is our last chance to get meaningful changes. All of the pieces should be well sampled this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The shortwave over Kansas is shaper and more amplified this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM looks slightly better than its 00 and 06z run with the tilt and handling of that lead shortwave. Don't think it'll make a big difference here but might be key for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 6z GFS Forms a 2nd low much closer to the coast. Precip improved but didn't fully respond: The area of heavy convection well offshore is ruining everything. Hopefully that weakens more in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Probably a 50 mile or so shift west with the energy digging through the Plains. The western side of the trough is near Oklahoma City whereas at 06z it was further east into Missouri and Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If the Euro is right and I have 0.30" or so liquid, I could see it, but if it's the GFS that's right and we just see some snow showers for 24 hours, I doubt any of that will stick. The GFS seems to be standing firm on way offshore and the Euro seems to be backing down more and more, so I'm thinking the way offshore solution wins out. The Euro has been rather consistent in providing 0.25 - 0.50 of QPF from west to east across the island for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Probably a 50 mile or so shift west with the energy digging through the Plains. The western side of the trough is near Oklahoma City whereas at 06z it was further east into Missouri and Arkansas. When you compare it to the 00z run you can see the changes a bit more clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lead vort max is over central Arkansas this run as opposed to NE Arkansas at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lead vort max is over central Arkansas this run as opposed to NE Arkansas at 06z. dont think that is going to make much of a difference in the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 When you compare it to the 00z run you can see the changes a bit more clearly. Yeah, pretty substantial differences regarding the amplitude of the western ridge compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.