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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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I'm quite interested in the front right entrance region of the jet streak around hr 40. Given the proximity to the gulf stream, there must be very strong surface convergence at that time not too far off the North Carolina Coast i.e. very fast pressure falls, and a new SLP predominating. 

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I think it would have to happen earlier than that actually...from 30 to 36hours when the surface low develops a few hundred miles off the southeast coast. That needs to be changed completely but it won't be unless there is a significant model error in all regards, mainly including the mid and upper level jet positioning. There will always be convection when you have a developing surface low and incoming vort..and I don't think that is attributing to the model being too far east. 

 

Here is where you need a correction. The surface low is way too far east for us and the mid level flow too flat. 

 

f36.gif

That was always the biggest red flag for me-how fast that initial low develops and how far east. Maybe it's partly convective feedback driven, maybe it should be corrected weaker, who knows, but it drags the whole setup too far east. That, plus the progressiveness of the pattern out west pushing everything east. I just don't see this happening.

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