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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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Yep, that's our only hope and they are so tough to pinpoint and have actually verify. Here's hoping though...

 

 

We are in excellent position for the inverted trof if it happens...odds are its going to be somewhere between BLM and BDR or so...the low gets too wrapped up for it to really hit SNE, so it either happens vicinity NYC or not at all.

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We are in excellent position for the inverted trof if it happens...odds are its going to be somewhere between BLM and BDR or so...the low gets too wrapped up for it to really hit SNE, so it either happens vicinity NYC or not at all.

Forgive the naivete of the question : but why the heck do Norluns seem consistently out of our ability to forcast correctly? the batting % is way below than it would be  for many other storm types- if u will

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Yeah people are testy lately. Do they get this riled for summer thunder storms? I'm not here in the summer and I DO NOT like severe weather so I have no idea. Thunder, lightning, derechos, you can keep em all. Heat waves too, don't like em.

 

I am looking forward to arguing endlessly over whether the dewpoint will be 70 or 72 on a sultry July afternoon...as long as I can do it from an air conditioned room.

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none.  partly Cloudy and windy-enjoy

I'm guessing you're tired of snow. Snow is still in the forecast, just very light for Central LI. I think a dusting to 2 inches seems like a good estimate right now. You have to go to Montauk to get more than that. And yes, very windy with gusts 35+. If the track of the storm was 150 miles west, it would be a major blizzard. 

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I'm guessing you're tired of snow. Snow is still in the forecast, just very light for Central LI. I think a dusting to 2 inches seems like a good estimate right now. You have to go to Montauk to get more than that. And yes, very windy with gusts 35+. If the track of the storm was 150 miles west, it would be a major blizzard. 

not likely...the QPF shield will be alot more compact-as the well offshore storm bombs out, the qpf shield will be pulled in towards the center...unless there is a real norlun  trough, no one is getting anything except for some wind and a whole lot of subsidence around the main low

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weren't you the same clown who said you were getting 4-7 on 3/3 b/c

Upton's snow map said you were?   Verification was zero.

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and wow a snow shower?  Exciting stuff!  Sign me up

Ah Anthony isn't a clown. He's a good kid. He's a good fella. I always like his optimism. Me, OTOH, I'm a surly middle aged guy with a bad attitude.

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So I'm going out on a limb here. I realize it's a lonely camp, and as such if I'm wrong I'm subject to getting my head chopped off. BUT, I have a sneaking suspicion we see a last minute trend west, beginning tonight. I have little to support this other than the drop off in the NAO over the next 2 days, which will be going from 1, approximately to 0.5; however, I believe this to be quite important. While this may not seem like much, the slowing down of the westerlies, may be enough to get this system to slow down to a point where it can get the positive feedback going faster at an earlier stage (lower latitude). In my experience, the models, in general, are notoriously behind shifts in the NAO. I'm not expecting anything significant for interior sections, but would not want to rule out a trend toward the BM. Coastal sections, namely LI, Eastern Conn, RI, and eastern Mass. should all stay vigilante imho. I do not have high confidence in this (for obvious reasons: model consensus etc.), it is just the way that I'm leaning at the moment.

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