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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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18z GFS OTS

Even Cape Cod is starting to look like this could just be a graze. The models tonight and tomorrow will be key for them, and for anyone west of there it's been over for a while now. The initial vortmax coming out ahead of this and causing convection is killing any chance at this forming initially near the coast, and the progressive trough is sealing the coffin.

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This storm has 1 thing : Heartbreak. ( we were only close to being close) nonethless, it was likely our last shot for the winter. saying goodbye - especially after a soul crushing March is tough but Im deeplu grateful we got as much as we did. we were 1 HECS away from breaking our record. For a flickering moment I thought we would ahve the story book ending with this storm but its not meant to be. so we say Thx mother nature and onwards to severe season in a few weeks.

Given the -NAO showing up on all models, especially the 12z ECM, we might get one more shot at a minor snow event in early April. This was probably the last chance of the season for a bona-fide snowstorm, but never say never. Temperatures certainly look colder than normal to start April after a mild period from March 30-April 2.

 

This March has been one of the most annoying patterns: Central Park has a -4F departure but only .2" of snowfall for the month. As bluewave pointed out, a March with a mean temperature below 40.0F in NYC usually produces above average snowfall, but not this time around. This will almost certainly be the least snowiest March to average below 40.0F.

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Given the -NAO showing up on all models, especially the 12z ECM, we might get one more shot at a minor snow event in early April. This was probably the last chance of the season for a bona-fide snowstorm, but never say never. Temperatures certainly look colder than normal to start April after a mild period from March 30-April 2.

 

This March has been one of the most annoying patterns: Central Park has a -4F departure but only .2" of snowfall for the month. As bluewave pointed out, a March with a mean temperature below 40.0F in NYC usually produces above average snowfall, but not this time around. This will almost certainly be the least snowiest March to average below 40.0F.

 

Very disappointing considering we were able to set the record snowfall for October in NYC in 2011 and we had

that great early November snow after Sandy in 2012. The big late season snow event has been the toughest

to get since April 82 which ironically happened during the 80's snow drought. NYC only has a tenth of an inch

more snow than March 2012 which averaged 50.9 degrees.

October2.9     20110.8     19250.5     19520.5     1876
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I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET .

 

Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs  1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front .

18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty  insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that  .

 

However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops  the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM .

 

So  by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo .

 

If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east  . And look its a big " if "

its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and  when those thunderstorms fire Tues and  take off ENE  there`s a chance it may not take the center with it .

 

I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about .

* Open the image to see both maxes

post-7472-0-29087100-1395615515_thumb.pn

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I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET .

 

Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs  1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front .

18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty  insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that  .

 

However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops  the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM .

 

So  by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo .

 

If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east  . And look its a big " if "

its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and  when those thunderstorms fire Tues and  take off ENE  there`s a chance it may not take the center with it .

 

I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about .

* Open the image to see both maxes

Thanks for sharing. Pretty interesting. You could have this occur even if the models differ. This would be in "nowcasting" time and would have to be watched by surface pressure drops at that juncture of time.

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Meteorology has a way of humbling us all. It's why I'm so hesitant to make definitive statements more than 24 hours prior to an event.

This season has been trademarked by changes inside 48-72 hours. Where have we seen the arctic front snows before? And also how accurately were they forecasted outside of 48 hours?

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Wouldnt be the first time this has happened yanks. PB GFI's source does have a great point of view

Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us.

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I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET .

 

Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs  1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front .

18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty  insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that  .

 

However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops  the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM .

 

So  by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo .

 

If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east  . And look its a big " if "

its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and  when those thunderstorms fire Tues and  take off ENE  there`s a chance it may not take the center with it .

 

I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about .

* Open the image to see both maxes

 

 

The biggest threat with this is likely the inverted trof, the setup is good, winds are light in the trof axis at 500-850 to allow the instability trof to form, and if some of the latest models ideas that the low is going to be slower to deepen and explode are right, then the chance for an inverted trof goes up further because once you get a deep low and you close off the 500-850 lows the chance for a norlun is reduced significantly.  Overall, only about 1 or 2 out of 10 in every inverted trof setups ever come to fruition

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Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us.

Not exactly. It wasn't until the storm was underway that things really started to go awry though there were signs the night before that the storm wasn't unfolding as modeled. Then they just kept gradually backing down on accumulations. It was also supposed to last 48 hours and basically did but most was spotty sleet/snow/frz drizzle

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The biggest threat with this is likely the inverted trof, the setup is good, winds are light in the trof axis at 500-850 to allow the instability trof to form, and if some of the latest models ideas that the low is going to be slower to deepen and explode are right, then the chance for an inverted trof goes up further because once you get a deep low and you close off the 500-850 lows the chance for a norlun is reduced significantly.  Overall, only about 1 or 2 out of 10 in every inverted trof setups ever come to fruition

They really favor NE . The real explosiveness on the modeling is so far to our NE , I would think that that threat would slide N over time .

I am just interested to see if the center really does develop over the top of that convection . Sometimes the thunderstorms do take off

and leave the center behind to deepen .

There will be a center at OBX .  Maybe its grasping at straws , but its not like its impossible.  Just not modeled so I will concede that .

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I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET .

Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs 1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front .

18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that .

However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM .

So by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo .

If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east . And look its a big " if "

its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and when those thunderstorms fire Tues and take off ENE there`s a chance it may not take the center with it .

I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about .

* Open the image to see both maxes

NJ12 now forecasting "heavy snow" up n down NJ coast to maybe 25% of state inland with remainder of NJ in "lighter snow"

The CNJ Plowsman

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Not exactly. It wasn't until the storm was underway that things really started to go awry though there were signs the night before that the storm wasn't unfolding as modeled. Then they just kept gradually backing down on accumulations. It was also supposed to last 48 hours and basically did but most was spotty sleet/snow/frz drizzle

Even so, that storm was far by the biggest heart breaker of them all. Until we experience a storm of that magnitude, March 2001 will always be a thorn on my side and all weenies alike.

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Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us.

yes but it was a different setup. often times models and sometimes most of them will take convection as a LP formation. IMO from what paul said this may be a Hi-RES model storm where the hi-res models will be able to pick up some of these features better, guess we'll know this tommorow

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