LongIslandWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GFS OTS 18z GFS bombs system much later...not into the 960s until it approaches Nova Scotia. Don't think it'll be that far out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GFS OTS Even Cape Cod is starting to look like this could just be a graze. The models tonight and tomorrow will be key for them, and for anyone west of there it's been over for a while now. The initial vortmax coming out ahead of this and causing convection is killing any chance at this forming initially near the coast, and the progressive trough is sealing the coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This storm has 1 thing : Heartbreak. ( we were only close to being close) nonethless, it was likely our last shot for the winter. saying goodbye - especially after a soul crushing March is tough but Im deeplu grateful we got as much as we did. we were 1 HECS away from breaking our record. For a flickering moment I thought we would ahve the story book ending with this storm but its not meant to be. so we say Thx mother nature and onwards to severe season in a few weeks. Given the -NAO showing up on all models, especially the 12z ECM, we might get one more shot at a minor snow event in early April. This was probably the last chance of the season for a bona-fide snowstorm, but never say never. Temperatures certainly look colder than normal to start April after a mild period from March 30-April 2. This March has been one of the most annoying patterns: Central Park has a -4F departure but only .2" of snowfall for the month. As bluewave pointed out, a March with a mean temperature below 40.0F in NYC usually produces above average snowfall, but not this time around. This will almost certainly be the least snowiest March to average below 40.0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah, that map went viral. http://www.businessinsider.com/nemo-nyc-storm-predictions-vary-wildly-2013-2 Nearest spot to here on that map is Northport at 24.8". We had 27". Epic fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nearest spot to here on that map is Northport at 24.8". We had 27". Epic fail! It was 75 miles too far west...just like the latest rpm run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Given the -NAO showing up on all models, especially the 12z ECM, we might get one more shot at a minor snow event in early April. This was probably the last chance of the season for a bona-fide snowstorm, but never say never. Temperatures certainly look colder than normal to start April after a mild period from March 30-April 2. This March has been one of the most annoying patterns: Central Park has a -4F departure but only .2" of snowfall for the month. As bluewave pointed out, a March with a mean temperature below 40.0F in NYC usually produces above average snowfall, but not this time around. This will almost certainly be the least snowiest March to average below 40.0F. Very disappointing considering we were able to set the record snowfall for October in NYC in 2011 and we had that great early November snow after Sandy in 2012. The big late season snow event has been the toughest to get since April 82 which ironically happened during the 80's snow drought. NYC only has a tenth of an inch more snow than March 2012 which averaged 50.9 degrees. October2.9 20110.8 19250.5 19520.5 1876 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It was 75 miles too far west...just like the latest rpm run is. Yeah, but only IMBY matters. Why should only the NYC and Jersey folk be IMBYists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It ain't over till were sucking cirrus so until then there's still a chance for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It ain't over till were sucking cirrus so until then there's still a chance for accumulating snow. And Elvis is having a beer with Jim Morrison right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And Elvis is having a beer with Jim Morrison right? Lol You're leaving out Janus and Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You're leaving out Janus and Jerry. And Jimi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And Jimi I should be five PPD for forgetting Jimi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET . Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs 1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front . 18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that . However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM . So by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo . If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east . And look its a big " if " its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and when those thunderstorms fire Tues and take off ENE there`s a chance it may not take the center with it . I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about . * Open the image to see both maxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Their is a very remote chance that the models are over developing the convection initially east of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET . Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs 1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front . 18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that . However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM . So by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo . If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east . And look its a big " if " its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and when those thunderstorms fire Tues and take off ENE there`s a chance it may not take the center with it . I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about . * Open the image to see both maxes Thanks for sharing. Pretty interesting. You could have this occur even if the models differ. This would be in "nowcasting" time and would have to be watched by surface pressure drops at that juncture of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Their is a very remote chance that the models are over developing the convection initially east of FL Wouldnt be the first time this has happened yanks. PB GFI's source does have a great point of view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Meteorology has a way of humbling us all. It's why I'm so hesitant to make definitive statements more than 24 hours prior to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Meteorology has a way of humbling us all. It's why I'm so hesitant to make definitive statements more than 24 hours prior to an event. This season has been trademarked by changes inside 48-72 hours. Where have we seen the arctic front snows before? And also how accurately were they forecasted outside of 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wouldnt be the first time this has happened yanks. PB GFI's source does have a great point of view Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET . Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs 1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front . 18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that . However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM . So by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo . If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east . And look its a big " if " its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and when those thunderstorms fire Tues and take off ENE there`s a chance it may not take the center with it . I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about . * Open the image to see both maxes The biggest threat with this is likely the inverted trof, the setup is good, winds are light in the trof axis at 500-850 to allow the instability trof to form, and if some of the latest models ideas that the low is going to be slower to deepen and explode are right, then the chance for an inverted trof goes up further because once you get a deep low and you close off the 500-850 lows the chance for a norlun is reduced significantly. Overall, only about 1 or 2 out of 10 in every inverted trof setups ever come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us. Not exactly. It wasn't until the storm was underway that things really started to go awry though there were signs the night before that the storm wasn't unfolding as modeled. Then they just kept gradually backing down on accumulations. It was also supposed to last 48 hours and basically did but most was spotty sleet/snow/frz drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The biggest threat with this is likely the inverted trof, the setup is good, winds are light in the trof axis at 500-850 to allow the instability trof to form, and if some of the latest models ideas that the low is going to be slower to deepen and explode are right, then the chance for an inverted trof goes up further because once you get a deep low and you close off the 500-850 lows the chance for a norlun is reduced significantly. Overall, only about 1 or 2 out of 10 in every inverted trof setups ever come to fruition They really favor NE . The real explosiveness on the modeling is so far to our NE , I would think that that threat would slide N over time . I am just interested to see if the center really does develop over the top of that convection . Sometimes the thunderstorms do take off and leave the center behind to deepen . There will be a center at OBX . Maybe its grasping at straws , but its not like its impossible. Just not modeled so I will concede that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I just got off the phone with a very good friend but sometimes very misunderstood MET . Here`s his argument . at hour 60 there are 2 SLPs 1 on the Arctic front 1 on the Polar front . 18 hours later the main SLP is down to 946 ( pretty insane for that latitude ) . Now every models deepens this on the Polar front . No question we all see that . However once the Arctic front is off the coast tomorrow , he seems to think there`s a chance the models develops the main center on the Arctic front and deepen it to the BM . So by 12z tomorrow , its my Alamo . If he`s right , no one will be upset from the CNJ east . And look its a big " if " its prob very weenie but who cares , its not like it doesn't have merit . Lets see when the Arctic front comes off the coast and when those thunderstorms fire Tues and take off ENE there`s a chance it may not take the center with it . I will roll the dice thru 12z tomorrow and see if he`s a genius or crazy . Something to think about . * Open the image to see both maxes NJ12 now forecasting "heavy snow" up n down NJ coast to maybe 25% of state inland with remainder of NJ in "lighter snow" The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not exactly. It wasn't until the storm was underway that things really started to go awry though there were signs the night before that the storm wasn't unfolding as modeled. Then they just kept gradually backing down on accumulations. It was also supposed to last 48 hours and basically did but most was spotty sleet/snow/frz drizzle Even so, that storm was far by the biggest heart breaker of them all. Until we experience a storm of that magnitude, March 2001 will always be a thorn on my side and all weenies alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 NJ12 now forecasting "heavy snow" up n down NJ coast to maybe 25% of state inland with remainder of NJ in "lighter snow" The CNJ Plowsman Let the hype begin? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NJ12 now forecasting "heavy snow" up n down NJ coast to maybe 25% of state inland with remainder of NJ in "lighter snow" The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wasn't the march 2001 storm in a similar scenario where all the models showed a major blizzard for our area, and then 48 hours before crunch time moved the center 200 miles north of us. yes but it was a different setup. often times models and sometimes most of them will take convection as a LP formation. IMO from what paul said this may be a Hi-RES model storm where the hi-res models will be able to pick up some of these features better, guess we'll know this tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Even so, that storm was far by the biggest heart breaker of them all. Until we experience a storm of that magnitude, March 2001 will always be a thorn on my side and all weenies alike. 2/6/10 was worse. Far worse. it was up to our backyard then stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 2/6/10 was worse. Far worse. it was up to our backyard then stopped. the virga blizzard. this one if it hits as is will take that cake I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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