IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The vorticy is a tick closer to the coast this run and the inverted trough is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 NWS NYC forecasting chance of light accumulations now for Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Time has already run out IMO. The time ran out on the 12z Friday Euro run when it broke toward the 0z runs that were consistently east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That doesn't mean we should stop talking about it In your infinite genius where in my post did it say we should stop talking about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This run the vorticy runs right over NJ where it was offshore at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's an interesting storm whether or not we're directly effected by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The trough is sharper, as a result the base of the trough is a bit south of 12z. Anyway, large storm well east of OBX hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 major hit incoming Maybe for eastern New England, but it looks like the inverted trough will be on the table again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Maybe for eastern New England, but it looks like the inverted trough will be on the table again. and unfortunately that's not going to do it for most of us. Interesting footnote that the Inv trough started showing up on the 18z GFS from last Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's completely phasing in a piece of the PV, going to be explosive development well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 More energy phasing in, quicker development, closes off faster, inverted trough falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 mt. holly going with 2-4" for morris, sussex, most of warren, northern somerset, northern hunterdon. 1-2" all other NJ counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is so easy to see as to why it's so far offshore, the 500mb jet streak is pointed from Charleston to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lol this is really not a positive development for us. We would be relying on the inverted trough, which falls apart. Storm way too far offshore anyway. Snow goggles ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Completely misses Cape Cod. They are the ones that should be upset here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 the record snowfall for the 26th in KNYC is 1.2"...We have a shot at breaking that record... 3/26 snowfalls... 1.2" in 1924 0.8" in 1955 0.6" in 1947 0.5" in 1899 0.3" in 2001 0.3" in 1900 0.3" in 1926 0.2" in 1927 0.2" in 1933 0.2" in 1960 there has been measurable only snow twice on 3/25... 2.3" in 1872 0.5" in 1899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lol this is really not a positive development for us. We would be relying on the inverted trough, which falls apart. Storm way too far offshore anyway. Snow goggles ? Sent from my iPhone If the storm wraps up too quickly the precip will be confined to the CCB and that's pretty much what happens this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton losing confidence it seems also. Almost time to put a Forky in it, almost done. Yanks thanks for the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton losing confidence it seems also. Almost time to put a Forky in it, almost done. Yanks thanks for the PBP. We'll all be watching this storm from the beaches or the radar and thats it. Is it a letdown? For some it is but also remember next week its april so cant let this get to you we had an AMAZING winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is so easy to see as to why it's so far offshore, the 500mb jet streak is pointed from Charleston to Bermuda. Seeing the 250mb jet phasing off the Carolina coast was a dead giveaway a couple days ago. Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm still mildly interested to see if the inverted trough can get in here, but a lot of the 15z SREF members lost it. Seems like a big long shot at this point even to get 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Seeing the 250mb jet phasing off the Carolina coast was a dead giveaway a couple days ago. Using GS4 Tapatalk yeah, the whole trough axis sets up too far east. I blame the lack of blocking and progressive Pacific pattern shunting everything too far east before it has a chance to blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is so easy to see as to why it's so far offshore, the 500mb jet streak is pointed from Charleston to Bermuda. As has been the case on every model for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So for now roughly 48 hours to go I'm conservatively pessimistic. Seems that the inverted trough will mainly hit areas between DC and Philly and the coastal will end up well offshore and southeast of the benchmark. Congrats to the GFS which never really showed much of anything and congrats to the NAM for not giving us one of its taylor made HECS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As has been the case on every model for 5 days. Agreed, remarkable consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 As has been the case on every model for 5 days. We can wish at least for a glancing blow that yields a dusting to an inch or two for some lucky folks. Mount Holly snow graphic with NYC pending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not sure if it was really noticed, but the last 2 runs of the NAM have ZERO precip in Boston!! Latest run has pretty much NOTHING for the cape as well! Haha DC gets a few inches, philly a couple, NYC pretty much no precip as well though. Funny how all along we were hoping for a quicker phase, now we're relying on plan B and hoping for a slower phase Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the ULL polar energy diving down the backside of the trough can be delayed we stand a good chance at getting the inverted trough in here. A more complete phase and it's sianara. The 06z NAM was delayed in the phase, 12z sped it up and now it's even faster at 18z. Not surprising and not good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm still mildly interested to see if the inverted trough can get in here, but a lot of the 15z SREF members lost it. Seems like a big long shot at this point even to get 2-4". it would be ironic if we finally pull off an accumulating snow in this annoying month out of an inverted trough. as rare as they are, they do get us good once every 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Traditional miller A's like Boxing Day phase over the Dixie states. Cyclogenisis tends to occur in the northern gulf rather than off the eastern FL coast. They are normally associated with squall lines, sometimes severe crossing Florida. You almost want the low to be inland over Georgia and South Carolina in order to get a good trajectory up the coastline. This storm has none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.