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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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the record snowfall for the 26th in KNYC is 1.2"...We have a shot at breaking that record...

3/26 snowfalls...

1.2" in 1924

0.8" in 1955

0.6" in 1947

0.5" in 1899

0.3" in 2001

0.3" in 1900

0.3" in 1926

0.2" in 1927

0.2" in 1933

0.2" in 1960

there has been measurable only snow twice on 3/25...

2.3" in 1872

0.5" in 1899

 

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Lol this is really not a positive development for us. We would be relying on the inverted trough, which falls apart. Storm way too far offshore anyway. Snow goggles ?

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If the storm wraps up too quickly the precip will be confined to the CCB and that's pretty much what happens this run.

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Upton losing confidence it seems also. Almost time to put a Forky in it, almost done.

Yanks thanks for the PBP.

We'll all be watching this storm from the beaches or the radar and thats it. Is it a letdown? For some it is but also remember next week its april so cant let this get to you we had an AMAZING winter

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So for now roughly 48 hours to go I'm conservatively pessimistic. Seems that the inverted trough will mainly hit areas between DC and Philly and the coastal will end up well offshore and southeast of the benchmark. Congrats to the GFS which never really showed much of anything and congrats to the NAM for not giving us one of its taylor made HECS runs.

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Not sure if it was really noticed, but the last 2 runs of the NAM have ZERO precip in Boston!! Latest run has pretty much NOTHING for the cape as well! Haha DC gets a few inches, philly a couple, NYC pretty much no precip as well though. Funny how all along we were hoping for a quicker phase, now we're relying on plan B and hoping for a slower phase :P

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If the ULL polar energy diving down the backside of the trough can be delayed we stand a good chance at getting the inverted trough in here. A more complete phase and it's sianara. The 06z NAM was delayed in the phase, 12z sped it up and now it's even faster at 18z. Not surprising and not good trends. 

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I'm still mildly interested to see if the inverted trough can get in here, but a lot of the 15z SREF members lost it. Seems like a big long shot at this point even to get 2-4".

 

it would be ironic if we finally pull off an accumulating snow in this annoying month out of an inverted trough.   as rare as they are, they do get us good once every 5 years or so. 

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Traditional miller A's like Boxing Day phase over the Dixie states. Cyclogenisis tends to occur in the northern gulf rather than off the eastern FL coast. They are normally associated with squall lines, sometimes severe crossing Florida. You almost want the low to be inland over Georgia and South Carolina in order to get a good trajectory up the coastline. This storm has none of that.

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