earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Continue discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some of these solutions are absolutely insane...you won't find me buying into a QPF bomb on an inverted trough. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some of these solutions are absolutely insane...you won't find me buying into a QPF bomb on an inverted trough. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ARW Haha the good old ARW. We couldn't get better than that solution, though it won't happen Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 The argument against a tucked in solution is very strong right now and I think the western trend is on its last leg. A lot of that has to do with the initial shortwave sliding southeast and becoming quite elongated and broad. This is not what you want to see ahead of a potential amplified storm for the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't know if it's a true inverted trough, it forms as a result of a phasing between the inland 'clipper' low and the offshore low....could be legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some slight improvements on the NAM with a more amplified western ridge and more energetic disturbance coming across the international border...but nothing out of this world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 western ridge definitely a bit more amplified on the 12z Nam. heights along the eastern seaboard also a bit improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 With respect to the question concerning December cases, one should not take the numbers literally. Such cases can provide broad insight, not exact details. The insight is that there are cases where storms brought moderate/significant snows to eastern Long Island and focused their heaviest accumulations on the vicinity of Cape Cod/eastern Massachusetts, with lesser amounts falling north and west of those areas. In terms of this storm, one can say that there is a reasonably possibility of such an outcome. Actual details remain yet to be resolved and there is still opportunity for some other solutions. My thinking right now is that something between the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS seems plausible. Considering additonal guidance, including but not limited to the GFS and ECMWF ensembles with some of the past cases, my initial thinking is that the best potential for several inches or more of snow lies across Suffolk County/eastern Connecticut in terms of the NYC metro area. At the same time, there is still a chance that several inches of snow could reach the City and adjacent suburbs, but that's still a lower probability outcome. There is enough uncertainty to allow for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not sure if it was already mentioned but the 6z GFS showed significant improvement with the western ridge (more amplified) relative to 0z as well...Seems like the PNA finally kicking in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= Overview of the last 24 hrs CiMSS 500mb DLM short term guidance only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not sure if it was already mentioned but the 6z GFS showed significant improvement with the western ridge (more amplified) relative to 0z as well...Seems like the PNA finally kicking in here... I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ETA has the inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro ensembles are still showing a lot of big hits for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro ensembles are still showing a lot of big hits for the area. Still looks like a close graze, and could easily move a bit east on the next run. I don't feel confident about a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro ensembles are still showing a lot of big hits for the area. Define a lot please? out of 51 how many are over 6 inches for example for KNYC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree that the CCB traditional coastal snowstorm is off the table, but I think we can get a decent snowfall other ways as other models are hinting at now... Looks to be a broad area of low pressure when it passes out latitude which is what the models are depicting as an 'inverted trough' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Define a lot please? out of 51 how many are over 6 inches for example for KNYC ? 16. One member shows 15+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Earth a quick question. Would the Euro idea of an initial double barreled low before consolidating into a single bomb be a form of the Fujiwhara effect or does that only pertain to tropical or extratropical cyclones? I saw it mentioned in an earlier update from Upton and was curious. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The argument against a tucked in solution is very strong right now and I think the western trend is on its last leg. A lot of that has to do with the initial shortwave sliding southeast and becoming quite elongated and broad. This is not what you want to see ahead of a potential amplified storm for the eastern seaboard. The way we get a good snowfall out of this is with an inverted trough, IMO. Something similar to what happened last year in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z NAM nails most of the area with the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. A Neutral NAO would have done the trick don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Another solution is an inverted trough which the models might throw out there. The 12z Nam is still showing it. Congrats Philly and SNJ on the Nam. The main low is way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mid-Atlantic ground zero for the inverted trough but they almost always end up further northeast than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's really easy to see why this is so far OTS by looking at 500mb winds. You would want a sharp jet signature pointed north up the coast from the Carolinas. The NAM has this jet stream almost pointed towards Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I like the improvements there but I think it's becoming almost a lost cause at this point due to the trajectory of the incoming disturbance and jet streak. When you glance at the NAM you can see the problem is not the ridge out west but the way that things are aligned over the Central US. The incoming jet streak from the international border around 30 hours is heading southeast too fast in my opinion to allow for an amplified solution or rapid cyclogenesis at our latitude on the east coast. Instead it moves southeast and then the cyclogenesis doesn't occur until the incoming jet streak and disturbance phases -- and that occurs too far north for us. That's when you're seeing the mid level centers close off and the CCB develop on the models. Good points. Just to be clear I haven't been on board with a 'tucked in' track since we started tracking this--I've always favored BM-east. So I'm not expecting a significant jump west, given the recent shifts. I am however leaning heavily on gradual shifts to the west. Right now I prefer the 0z euro, and think a 50 mile shift west of that type of solution still quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The inverted trough has my attention because it's the only hope here in the Great NW. For those, I think only the high res models have some accuracy and we are still a bit far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z NAM keeps the inverted trough south of us and for NYC, mainly no precip Sent from my iPhone 3"-6" from NYC to DC on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z NAM nails most of the area with the inverted trough. 12z NAM keeps the inverted trough south of us and for NYC, mainly no precip Sent from my iPhone lol typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 3"-6" from NYC to DC on the NAM. Looks like 1-3" for NYC area, as the focus is kept south and further south than 6z, so not exactly a good trend...but we expect it to wobble around Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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