NaoPos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This 1.png Is not better than this 2.png Kid yourselves though.... Just stop. The wavelengths are elongating. The 18z might have dug a bit more, but that allows The southern stream low to escape east. The 0s gfs had a quicker phase with that southern stream, pulling it more north and deepening it faster. The window is small for more western solution to occur, but this was a baby step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anymore specifics on the 0z ggem? Can't look at the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anymore specifics on the 0z ggem? Can't look at the models tonight. Similar to the GFS. About .35"-.40" of precip for NYC. More on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At 12 hours, you can see the slight nuances in the amplitude of the northern Alaskan ridging coupled with the downstream effects on the north Atlantic Pacific Northern Pacific Pattern .... What? Is there a teleconnection for that? And I have to agree that the latest gfs is better and baby steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok, if it makes folks feel better. Sure It's not about "feeling better". It's breaking down what the gfs was doing. Keep bitter casting. It's a shame the mods can't stay on top of this kind of BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok, if it makes folks feel better. Sure You seem to be so confident in yourself that this isn't happening. Care to share any sound scientific reasoning behind that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok, if it makes folks feel better. Sure you have several mets in this thread saying that the gfs was a step in the right direction. If you dont think so, state why and not "Stick a fork in it" as you said. It is way too early to say that, just as it is way too early to say the storm will be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is good to be seeing these improvements despite the Ridge out west continuing to trend worse. The GFS was able to inch closer thanks to the vort phasing in faster - i.e. much better timing. If the ridge would have strengthened or even just remained on par with 18z, the shift west would have been more significant. Nevertheless, this is good to see as the PNA is set to rise. So if we can get the ridge to cooperate, as it is forecast to, coupled with the better SLP placement and vort interaction we have seen today--we should be in good shape for further small trends west over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You seem to be so confident in yourself that this isn't happening. Care to share any sound scientific reasoning behind that? This. By the way, I think that the models have been honed in on a storm for several days, which is usually a good sign. This is not to say it wont blow up too offshore, but I feel a little more confident than usual this far out that there will be a serious storm off the east coast tuesday-wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 0z GGEM 958mb low just SE of 40/70 BM. Total qpf .50"+ for LI and NJ shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 850mb low nearly passes over the benchmark on the 00z GFS as opposed to 100 miles SE of the benchmark at 18z. Still an eternity to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is good to be seeing these improvements despite the Ridge out west continuing to trend worse. The GFS was able to inch closer thanks to the vort phasing in faster - i.e. much better timing. If the ridge would have strengthened or even just remained on par with 18z, the shift west would have been more significant. Nevertheless, this is good to see as the PNA is set to rise. So if we can get the ridge to cooperate, as it is forecast to, coupled with the better SLP placement and vort interaction we have seen today--we should be in good shape for further small trends west over the next few days. Ridge out west is not a requirement. Many of our big storms have had mediocre west coast ridges or ridges breaking down during storm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is good to be seeing these improvements despite the Ridge out west continuing to trend worse. The GFS was able to inch closer thanks to the vort phasing in faster - i.e. much better timing. If the ridge would have strengthened or even just remained on par with 18z, the shift west would have been more significant. Nevertheless, this is good to see as the PNA is set to rise. So if we can get the ridge to cooperate, as it is forecast to, coupled with the better SLP placement and vort interaction we have seen today--we should be in good shape for further small trends west over the next few days. Nice post. In fact on the very maps weatherx posted to say it was worse then 18z you can see what appears to be a cleaner phase and less suppressive pv influence. The ridge out west scares me still like I said however that has been changing on the modeling frequently so I'll wait to make full judgements there. Like you said though the improvements are clear in other aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 0z GGEM 958mb low just SE of 40/70 BM. Total qpf .50"+ for LI and NJ shore. So it went east from last night 30 inches run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So it went east from last night 30 inches run West from the previous run. You compare to the previous run, not one that's 24 hour old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ridge out west is not a requirement. Many of our big storms have mediocre west coast ridges. I'm not saying it is. My point is that it is important, and it has been working against us today, even as the models shifted slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ridge out west is not a requirement. Many of our big storms have had mediocre west coast ridges or ridges breaking down during storm development.Luckily the energy is already rounding the base of the trough as the ridge is breaking down. This is why a quicker phase is so important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ridge out west is not a requirement. Many of our big storms have had mediocre west coast ridges or ridges breaking down during storm development. True but. .. When talking a situation like this where the axis could push it ots the ridge out west will be a crucial factor. Can we still get a phase without it? Sure but timing would need to be perfect and if we had the better Ridge out west we will have much more wiggle room and it will aide in forcing the entire setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not saying it is. My point is that it is important, and it has been working against us today, even as the models shifted slightly west. I didn't mean to make it seem like you were saying that. I apologize. I'm just posting that because I see people constantly posting about it like its a must have to get a good storm. Not true. I can post 4 classic storms that had mediocre west coast ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I didn't mean to make it seem like you were saying that. I apologize. I'm just posting that because I see people constantly posting about it like its a must have to get a good storm. Not true. I can post 4 classic storms that had mediocre west coast ridges. In this setup it will be a very important player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 According to pna forecasts, should the ridge reamplify in time to positively impact the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 In this setup it will be a very important player. Agree with you and Jetspen that in this situation, it's pretty important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 lol.. You are back again? On Long Island not at 1600 feet elevation 35 miles from you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 True but. .. When talking a situation like this where the axis could push it ots the ridge out west will be a crucial factor. Can we still get a phase without it? Sure but timing would need to be perfect and if we had the better Ridge out west we will have much more wiggle room and it will aide in forcing the entire setup. Great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I didn't mean to make it seem like you were saying that. I apologize. I'm just posting that because I see people constantly posting about it like its a must have to get a good storm. Not true. I can post 4 classic storms that had mediocre west coast ridges. Ah no apologies needed - no hard feelings, seriously. Yes, the ridge out west has been spoken about nearly ad nauseam thus far - but I can assure you it's for good reason. No we don't need it for a hit, per se, but if it would cooperate our chances go up significantly, and there would be far less anxiety about a track OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 According to pna forecasts, should the ridge reamplify in time to positively impact the track? By my estimation, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 According to pna forecasts, should the ridge reamplify in time to positively impact the track? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.pngYes it should spike in response to the western energy pumping it (before it beats it down later) so the hope is this spike continues to trend more amped before it begins to break down. It's actually going to be in the process of deamplification at storm time with that energy cutting into it along the west coast but the hope is that slows enough to allow it to still be amped enough/ spikes out ahead of that energy out west at the time we need it to aide the vort in digging South and forcing a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z GEFS mean is way west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z GEFS mean is way west of 18z Could you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0.50" plus west of NYC on the GEFS mean. At 18z the 0.50" plus contour was SE of the Twin Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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