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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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Meh. Nothing of substance to report on so far... should hold serve I would think.

 

Edit: if anything, things look a bit flatter through hour 66. "Meh" remains the word of choice.

Maybe U should wait til the run plays out or let somebody report on it that knows what they're talking about. 

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Maybe U should wait til the run plays out or let somebody report on it that knows what they're talking about. 

I think you mean 'you'. This is a professional board, mind.

 

The run managed to "recover" for the most part, but the changes still seem negligible to me. Hopefully it's the start of something more substantial.

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The forks and esp the cape get destroyed this run another tick west and more amped this run

- It was also a tad quicker

Now we are talkin. Define 'destroyed' . because if forks are destroyed then all we need is a 100 mile tick and those in queens are destroyed and another 30 and everyone gets in on a MECS. 1ft+?

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Still time for this to come west the trends on the rest of tonights runs and than tomorrow will be interesting. 

We have plenty of time...If this gfs run was 48 hours hours out, we would still be in the game because you would only need a slight change along the way to get this more west

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it's a baby step i suppose. the key will be trying to hook up with the southern low as quick as possible to keep it from kicking east too early. The 0z GFS was quicker with that, and brought the storm more N than E initially.

gfs_namer_090_500_vort_ht.gif


18z GFS below:

gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

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Kinda interesting that the 00z gfs dampens the western ridge and loses some of that retrograding PV chunk, but it more than makes up for it with the cleaner phase and the less downstream confluence.  

 

I hate to be that guy who cross-posts met. thoughts, but this (from the NE forum) confirms to an extent what I was saying about an initial mediocre look that recovered later on. Maybe we can get both aspects to work in our favor, instead of the hand-off we just saw.

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Same 25 MB drop in 12 hours. So great cyclogenesis occurring here. The Westward Precip field went from Montauk at 18z into central NJ at 0z

I don't know say about 150 miles west even as the slp placement is similar. So look for the center to come west over the next 24 hours as this Prob tracks on the arctic boundary.

Remember the hardest equation to solve is the precip . So a system deepening this rapidly should have a more robust precip

Field.

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-0z Ggem is well west of the 12z run.

-At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS.

Ggem ends up a bit west and snowier then the GFS.

UKMET precip details are not available but based on the hour 96 position of the low, I would guess its west of both the ggem and ukmet.

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