snow1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Surprised someone hasn't posted the srefs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When was the last time we saw a Miller A with all snow to the coast at this time of the year? The MSLP and evolution reminds me of December 2010 where it bombed out to 972mb east of LI, and it relied on the amplification of the trough to force the surface low closer to us. The combo of cold air/powerful cyclogenesis was described as a 1-in-10 to 1-in-20 year event by the HPC today. Climo only goes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What a fascinating weather feature to track! We want the goods, but if not, this is still amazing to follow and see what happens. I will be happy either way......buried, or look forward to warmer times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We are going to have a snow bomb early next week, can't wait. Hopefully it will be within range of small craft and we won't have to break out the high seas-ready vessels to access said snow bomb, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Maybe a stupid question, but is there evidence of the SE ridge, if present, exerting any influence on storm amplification or track? I know everything works in tandem, but just thought I'd ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Climo supports a track closer to the coast (3/29/84, 4/1/97) 3/29/84 had a 50/50 low: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1984/us0329.php 4/1/97 had strong ridge over the Central Plains. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0401.php Neither of does features really exist here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 3/29/84 had a 50/50 low: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1984/us0329.php 4/1/97 had strong ridge over the Central Plains. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0401.php Neither of does features really exist here. This is probably a better match, though it doesn't bomb like this one is progged to. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0410.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We are going to have a snow bomb early next week, can't wait. I just think with such an amped up storm, it would argue for a more closer approach to the coast. The 18z GFS was starting to hint that with some improvements at 500mb. How close this storm gets to us time will tell, but small improvements here and there can have huge ramifications for us. The good thing, time is still on our side. The next 48 hours could get mighty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 2 events does not a climo make. What you really need to do to establish "climo" is identify all coastal storms during a set period and track them. If this was currently depicted on models as a coastal hugger, I think there would be significant banter about "climo argues this will go inland on us". And I suspect many would agree. But isn't the real statement there "it will move west from where modeled"? If yes, then one would argue that climo would have this "move inland" from where it is currently modeled. Although in this case, "inland" is relative and is just closer to the coast, right where many of us would want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I just think with such an amped up storm, it would argue for a more closer approach to the coast. The 18z GFS was starting to hint that with some improvements at 500mb. How close this storm gets to us time will tell, but small improvements here and there can have huge ramifications for us. The good thing, time is still on our side. The next 48 hours could get mighty interesting. this storm is FAR from final. going to be some noticeable changes starting tomorrow when S/W is sampled on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not exciting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not exciting..... f108.gif meh this really IMO is the models doing they're absolute best with what is being sampled. tomorrow im standing by what I said that either a eastward shift or more of a westward trend will start to what degree is yet to be determined. you cannot compare to whats happened to us the past couple storms to this one however. going to be a nuthouse in here tomorrow and im using that word in the lightest of terms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like for the most part the ensembles are way less amped and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like for the most part the ensembles are way less amped and further east. PLEASE do not start with riding your eastern solution verifying this early. you may be right but it is still WAY too early in the game to say the models will shift one way or another. IMO these miller A storms have a tendency to verify west to varying degrees in the end. this storm is going to be rapidly deepening and I would say this will be closer to the coast than progged, stay tuned my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 meh this really IMO is the models doing they're absolute best with what is being sampled. tomorrow im standing by what I said that either a eastward shift or more of a westward trend will start to what degree is yet to be determined. you cannot compare to whats happened to us the past couple storms to this one however. going to be a nuthouse in here tomorrow and im using that word in the lightest of terms Would like to see a westward trend start tonight, or at the very least see some more improvements in the upper levels. Tomorrow you're right Red, you'll be able to cut the tension with a knife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This storm is a little different from the examples stated above. The storms above happen during an negative NAO and there was much less arctic Air available. I totally agree with the excellent wright-up by earthlight. I am also following where the initial cyclogensis occurs that will also be very important too. Again I will have a much better idea after the 12Z runs on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like for the most part the ensembles are way less amped and further east. MILE GRAZIE ! Check Italian translation pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Straw grasping. straw grasping as in im trying to get this to come west when its progged to go OTS right now? patience sir that response was meant to cause calm no matter what happens. this year pacific sampling has been fairly sub-par so changes are likely by tomorrow into sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Would like to see a westward trend start tonight, or at the very least see some more improvements in the upper levels. Tomorrow you're right Red, you'll be able to cut the tension with a knife. I think most folks understand that the default is no storm with room for improvement. Worst-case scenario would be for tonight's runs to tickle the coast and leave us in limbo for a couple more days before resuming the OTS theme at 00z Monday or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 straw grasping as in im trying to get this to come west when its progged to go OTS right now? patience sir that response was meant to cause calm no matter what happens. this year pacific sampling has been fairly sub-par so changes are likely by tomorrow into sunday I share the enthusiasm, but sheer will rarely works well with the weather. All good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I share the enthusiasm, but sheer will rarely works well with the weather. All good eh guess we'll be seeing tomorrow into 0z if we'll start to be looking down the barrel of a memorable snowstorm or be looking at what beach would be the best to see the seas this storm will kick up offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 spot the difference in the 500mb vort???? OPC at 96hrs vs the 18Z GFS and the result of their outcomes --ATM yeah...the GFS is much flatter.....with the west coat ridge and I bet it will improve [sharpen] in the next few runs! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ watch our cold pool working its way down>>>>>big-time http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-wv-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 spot the difference in the 500mb vort???? OPC at 96hrs vs the 18Z GFS and the result of their outcomes --ATM st.gif yeah...the GFS is much flatter.....with the west coat ridge and I bet it will improve [sharpen] in the next few runs! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ watch our cold pool working its way down>>>>>big-time http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-wv-48 I love the images you post.....much different theme than the usual model shots. However, they always get me thinking positively about what could come! Lol in reality, the tracks shown in many of the images though end up shifting right to what the models show anyway, due to them being based on the models and not vice versa Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zs633666 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thanks, I will start adding things and scientific backing from now on. I was just trying to say that models have no clue right now because nothing is sampled and look what happened when the players were sampled last two storms. I just have a hunch it will go off to the east, but we will see with the models starting tomorrow. From what I've seen this year, any disturbances coming out of Canada have been under-estimated by models and have trended stronger as the event comes closer/better sampling has occurred. This would explain why the previous systems went south of the area (Cold air was under-estimated, models came around to showing a colder, suppressed solution). If this is the case and the vorticity coming down from Canada is being under-estimated, it would lead to a sharper/deeper trough and a farther west solution. Of course, this is speculation at this point but something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I love the images you post.....much different theme than the usual model shots. However, they always get me thinking positively about what could come! Lol in reality, the tracks shown in many of the images though end up shifting right to what the models show anyway, due to them being based on the models and not vice versa Sent from my iPhone WG the Point is you can do more than just follow the model play by play A blend of real-time observations and alternative guidance makes the tracking fun Don't you think!!! http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z700_f120_us.html the 700mb really eats at me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Very few 12z Euro ensemble members showed a track inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Half this forum by Sunday morning Well. Ill put it this way. I literally have stood on the cliff shown in that second picture. That's the top of halfdome in Yosemite. I didnt jump then- I will try not to this weekend either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC Day 3 500mb update Let the pro mets give you the skinny on this http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d3500wbg.gif E.L.s vort guidance from earlier tonight can you dig it... baby??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC Day 3 500mb update d3500wbg.gif Let the pro mets give you the skinny on this http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d3500wbg.gif E.L.s vort guidance from earlier tonight post-6-0-61897900-1395443683.png can you dig it... baby??? Not a pro at all, but I will attempt to prove I'm paying attention in class. The ridge axis on the west coast is depicted further east by the WPC when compared to what Earthlight is telling us we need to see. Also, the trough axis over the plains is digging deeper on the WPC's map but, again, appears too far east to help us. ...now let a pro tell me where I messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not a pro at all, but I will attempt to prove I'm paying attention in class. The ridge axis on the west coast is depicted further east by the WPC when compared to what Earthlight is telling us we need to see. Also, the trough axis over the plains is digging deeper on the WPC's map but, again, appears too far east to help us. ...now let a pro tell me where I messed up You're on the right track. As far as the ridge axis is concerned, it's more about the amplitude than the position..although the axis being slightly father west would help. We need it to be more amplified and aid in a more N to S flow in the mid levels on the eastern periphery of the ridge. That'll allow the incoming shortwave to dig farther south than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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