Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A 50/50 low is invariably found in the upper levels somewhere over Atlantic Canada (50N 50W may be a good starting place). Kocin and Uccellini 2004 p. 91 identifies this pattern as favorable to confluence over the region. In other words, a surface low near Greenland is not going to help anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 C.A.P.E in the mid-atlantic forum posted a really nice discussion out of Mt. Holly related to the short waves entering the RAOB sampling area in the Northwest along with WV imagery. Sorry I don't know how to post it. Post#880 in their storm thread. nice find WKD,,, nice http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43223-late-march-wintry-threat/page-26#entry2901315 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREFS are leaning to the NW so that's good obviously. I still wouldn't use them until maybe tomorrow, Nam will be next. I don't really care what it shows but it should still be entertaining. Things are really not that far off from a decent hit, the east end of LI could actually get a substantial hit so 50 miles further west or so would have huge implications. Would love to be on the cape though, what a monster they could get potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That`s always an option . 50 miles here a world of difference .3 on the Euro at KNYC over 12 hours doesn't really accumulate . But .8 will and that's only 30 miles east on the Euro right now . So every tick matters. The text you highlighted refers to the areas of heavy accumulations following the storm's departure from impacting New England (largest impact on the Cape and areas near the Cape). Amounts fell off quickly once one moved north of Boston e.g., Portland had only about 2" or so snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This could truly be a historic blizzard for cape cod with 70 mph wind gusts and 2 feet of snow. Incredible !! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Us New Englanders are definitely rooting for the western shift so more people can get in on the action! Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The text you highlighted refers to the areas of heavy accumulations following the storm's departure from impacting New England (largest impact on the Cape and areas near the Cape). Amounts fell off quickly once one moved north of Boston e.g., Portland had only about 2" or so snow. Yeh. Looks to be dynamic for a few. Not as many as we would all like. Hate seeing those CIPS analogs looks like when push cones to shove the last min push is east. Let's see what the last piece of RAOB s capture at 12z. KNYC is only 50 miles away from 6 plus inches on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks everyone for elaborating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Animal got into dons response by accident guess it was stuck on my phone from last nite. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Our best option,with the storm track still east,is that this doesn't close off in mid levels too early. So we can get more snow with the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does using analogs from previous storms in December apply to storms in late March, doesn't seem like an apples to apples comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does using analogs from previous storms in December apply to storms in late March, doesn't seem like an apples to apples comparison. thats an easy one to answer first start with the sun angle and go from there and move on to ocean temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I doubt it. I do however think that the low could actually develop more near or even over Hatteras, as opposed to what the models have been showing with it developing way the hell out in the ocean. See my detailed post on the previous page. I was just looking at the NAM and GFS for the SLP placement off the SE coast. The NAM is WAY south, near the Northern Bahamas, which is just ridiculous given the location of the jet. And the GFS, while better, still seems too far west, and to a greater extent, too far south with its placement. Given the location of the front entrance region of the jet, I'd expect cyclogenesis to occur close to the South Carolina coast. This obviously has huge implications on the track, and therefore it's something I'll be keeping a close eye on in future runs. I'm quoting myself here, because at the time that I made this comment this forum turned into a virtual banter thread and was buried by mostly irrelevant, off-topic comments. The reason for the shift on the NAM and GFS this morning is the more reasonable placement of the primary SLP (given upper level dynamics) off the SE coast. I do think that further improvements are likely in this regard. The higher resolution of the euro relative to the GFS is also helping it to outperform this aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z nam is rolling, lets see if some wished come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm quoting myself here, because at the time that I made this comment this forum turned into a virtual banter thread and was buried by mostly irrelevant, off-topic comments. The reason for the shift on the NAM and GFS this morning is the more reasonable placement of the primary SLP (given upper level dynamics) off the SE coast. I do think that further improvements are likely in this regard. The higher resolution of the euro relative to the GFS is also helping it to outperform this aspect. That being said do you expect immediate improvement with this run of the Nam? ( Just started rolling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF plumes are out 5 inches for JFK http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=JFK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Looks like around 6-7 inches for LGA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43285-march-25-26-potential-bomb-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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