MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 3z SREF looks good. The mean is leaning towards the left. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Should get better sampling of the important piece of energy on the 12Z runs today. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=hemi-wv-48 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_24hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Should get better sampling of the important piece of energy on the 12Z runs today. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE That's why it nuts for people to argue 4 and 5 days out when the data is incomplete . There should be a bend today , will know by 230 if its east or west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Inverted trough? Definitely been a signal for that. If that's the case we could still see several inches of snow even with a track further east. It's a wildcard with these events though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 50 - 75 mile wobble is in the cards . Not sure if it`s east or west It will be west. I almost guarantee it. If you look at the Weatherbell low center locations you can see that there are clearly 6 outliers in the ensemble mean that are skewing things off the coast just a bit. There is only one outlier to the west that you might be able to throw out. This in itself will skew things to the east a bit too far. In addition, there is a second camp in about 10% of the Euro ensemble members that actually develops the low over or very close to Cape Hatters. This second camp has actually become more noticable on the last model run overnight and this could be a real possibility. It is the members that develop the low near Hatteras (as a result of giving more credit to the northern stream wave rather than the low way the hell out in the ocean) that are the major hits on the ensembles, even for inland locations. Also, those dismissing the Euro as an outlier are making a tremendous mistake, most likely. The Euro verification scores are MUCH higher at 3 days than any other model and if you look back to the previous 0z run from yesterday, the Euro ensemble mean looks very similar. It is just the run yesterday afternoon that had a bit of an offshore blip. In essence, my research this morning is indicating that this storm should trend a bit closer to the coast than what the Euro shows, possibly 25 miles or so, BUT there is also still a chance that this storm could develop close to Hatteras as a result of giving more credit to the northern stream disturbance and less to the southern stream. That would change things dramatically. What I am seeing is quite promising, possibly even for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No you can show the Euro as long as its not the Euro itself . If you change their map you can post em . Maue re created them into this format , so they are ok with it . And WX bell could care less as long as you are a paid member . Please PM me. Thanks. I would like more info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_48hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's why it nuts for people to argue 4 and 5 days out when the data is incomplete . There should be a bend today , will know by 230 if its east or west . 12Z today.....first call 0Z Tuesday..final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The SREFS were certainly promising though still out of range, I think that means the NAM should be good though not to be taken seriously at 72+ hrs out. The data implications are huge and we will have to see if there are any significant changes with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some quick thoughts... 1. The room for large shifts in the track is diminishing, as some modest improvements in sampling and initialization still lie ahead. 2. Timing when the storm begins to bomb out could make a difference as to whether some more significant amounts can be pulled somewhat south and west of what the 6z GFS is depicting. 3. In terms of past storms, a number of scenarios are still plausible. CIPS analogs notwithstanding, perhaps a leading case is the 12/26-27/2004 event that brought 1"-3" near NYC and its nearby suburbs, 4"-6" across parts of Suffolk County with a few higher amounts, 4"-8" across easternmost Connecticut into Rhode Island, and widespread 10"-14" amounts focused on Cape Cod and just north and west with a few amounts approaching 20". The heaviest snows then shifted into Atlantic Canada. 4. A compromise between the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS (small lean toward the ECMWF given the timeframe involved) might provide an early reasonable idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It will be west. I almost guarantee it. If you look at the Weatherbell low center locations you can see that there are clearly 6 outliers in the ensemble mean that are skewing things off the coast just a bit. There is only one outlier to the west that you might be able to throw out. This in itself will skew things to the east a bit too far. In addition, there is a second camp in about 10% of the Euro ensemble members that actually develops the low over or very close to Cape Hatters. This second camp has actually become more noticable on the last model run overnight and this could be a real possibility. It is those members that develop the low near Hatteras as a result of giving more credit to the northern stream wave rather than the low way the hell out in the ocean that are the major hits on the ensembles even for inland locations. Also, those dismissing the Euro as an outlier are making a tremendous mistake most likely. The Euro verification scores are MUCH higher at 3 days than any other model and if you look back to the previous 0z run from yesterday, the Euro ensemble mean looks very similar. It is just the run yesterday afternoon that had a bit of an offshore blip. In essence, my research this morning is indicating that this storm should trend a bit closer to the coast than what the Euro shows, possibly 25 miles or so, BUT there is also still a chance that this storm could develop close to Hatteras as a result of giving more credit to the northern stream disturbance and less to the southern stream. That would change things dramatically. What I am seeing is quite promising, possibly even for inland areas. Big guy, there is a rationale behind your rhetoric, wish I could be as optimistic as you @ this juncture. If your dictum proves to be reality ( lets say KNYC tops out at close to a foot) & you love chocolate U have my word you are getting a big bar of your favorite delivered to your home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12Z today.....first call 0Z Tuesday..final call AGREE with the revised . - When this explodes , you will def get a push . Just not sure the direction . Hope the models come into some agreement today though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sustained 45 plus for 12 hours , these are you`re gusts . The drifts should be insane . Nice! My wife isn't happy about them Missing school but you don't get to see weather like this often. House has a gennie so power is t an issue. Getting out by Thursday might be though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some quick thoughts... 1. The room for large shifts in the track is diminishing, as some modest improvements in sampling and initialization still lie ahead. 2. Timing when the storm begins to bomb out could make a difference as to whether some more significant amounts can be pulled somewhat south and west of what the 6z GFS is depicting. 3. In terms of past storms, a number of scenarios are still plausible. CIPS analogs notwithstanding, perhaps a leading case is the 12/26-27/2004 event that brought 1"-3" near NYC and its nearby suburbs, 4"-6" across parts of Suffolk County with a few higher amounts, 4"-8" across easternmost Connecticut into Rhode Island, and widespread 10"-14" amounts focused on Cape Cod and just north and west with a few amounts approaching 20". The heaviest snows then shifted into Atlantic Canada. 4. A compromise between the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS (small lean toward the ECMWF given the timeframe involved) might provide an early reasonable idea. That`s always an option . 50 miles here a world of difference .3 on the Euro at KNYC over 12 hours doesn't really accumulate . But .8 will and that's only 30 miles east on the Euro right now . So every tick matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The SREF is a move...but it seems the move "west" of qpf occurs south of the city and isn't much help to the city or NW burbs. Seems to help NJ south of 78 and PHL possibly. Verbatim the .5" line is through the city on both runs. But the 1" line is definitely closer albeit still offshore. SREF 03Z vs SREF 21Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The SREF is a move...but it seems the move "west" of qpf occurs south of the city and isn't much help to the city or NW burbs. Seems to help NJ south of 78 and PHL possibly. Verbatim the .5" line is through the city on both runs. But the 1" line is definitely closer albeit still offshore. SREF 03Z sref_namer_081_precip_p24.gif vs SREF 21Z sref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif The 1" line is closer on the recent sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I wonder if the models are going towards 2 lows. One that goes out to sea and another one close to the coast. Euro showed this and the GFS also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I will tell you right now with that huge 50/50 low no way this goes east,watch 12z make another jump west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 AGREE with the revised . - When this explodes , you will def get a push . Just not sure the direction . Hope the models come into some agreement today though . The 6 and 12 hr pressure falls on euro and cmc were pretty exceptional. Quite the combo of +5C SST anomalies with Gulf Stream coupled with amazing dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I wonder if the models are going towards 2 lows. One that goes out to sea and another one close to the coast. Euro showed this and the GFS also. I doubt it. I do however think that the low could actually develop more near or even over Hatteras, as opposed to what the models have been showing with it developing way the hell out in the ocean. See my detailed post on the previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like the srefs are picking up on the inverted trough the nam had.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like the srefs are picking up on the inverted trough the nam had.... Not putting my stakes in this game on an iverted trough thank you VERY much. I recollect only 1 verifying around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I will tell you right now with that huge 50/50 low no way this goes east,watch 12z make another jump west.I don't think you quite understand what a 50/50 low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think you quite understand what a 50/50 low is. Would you be so kind as to explain to the viewers like myself who would like to know ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 50/50 low refers to mainly it's location (coordinates). And is a system with a closed circulation. Usually it means conditions can be favorable for a snowstorm in our areas, however not always. Julian's point was that just because there is a 50/50 low, it doesn't mean it cannot move east. Having a 50/50 low has nothing to do with which direction the storm can or will be moving Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nice shift west by the SREF. 0.50 line is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 C.A.P.E in the mid-atlantic forum posted a really nice discussion out of Mt. Holly related to the short waves entering the RAOB sampling area in the Northwest along with WV imagery. Sorry I don't know how to post it. Post#880 in their storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Would you be so kind as to explain to the viewers like myself who would like to know ? The term "50-50 Low" refers to the development or appearance of a strong or intense Low-pressure area both at the surface and in upper levels of the atmosphere -- usually at 500 MB -- over or near the positions of 50 degrees North Latitude and 50 degrees West Longitude. Hence the name "50-50 Low". There are many many cases where having a -NAO or 50-50 Low does NOT result in anything close to a significant East Coast snowstorm. WHY? Because there is coastal Low However IF there is a coastal Low AND both of these features on present on the Upper air maps BEFORE the coastal Low Low forms then experienced forecasters know that the pattern is setting up to become favorable for a SECS / MECS Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BionicMoron Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Would you be so kind as to explain to the viewers like myself who would like to know ? 1 - The 50/50 low is a 500 mb feature, not a surface feature. He's showing a surface map. 2 - The 50/50 low is named that because it's centered at roughly 50 latitude/50 longitude. The surface low he is referencing is centered at 60/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes Snow, it's the first significant shift west I've seen by the Sref. Definitely a good sign considering there is still time to move it west even more. I believe we're also about to get NAM'd.....though we know we can't get too excited over that Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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