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March 25-26 Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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My guess is this is just the Euro slowly reacting to the east shift the other models had, it tends to not want to make big shifts, and its been magnified a bit this year because there has been alot of big shifts inside 96 hours.

It shifted west for LI and SNE though. The other models didn't have anything for SNE. This run just blased LI and SNE.

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50 miles west for you and I and it's a different ball game. That's not much considering we are 3 days out

Ehh, it's been "50 miles northwest for us" for 4 days now. It's getting to the point where we need to see it happen, and the other models shifting SE tonight is disconcerting, even with the Euro doing what it just did.

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My guess is this is just the Euro slowly reacting to the east shift the other models had, it tends to not want to make big shifts, and its been magnified a bit this year because there has been alot of big shifts inside 96 hours.

 

i think these models have an agreement among themselves that one will always remain just to twist the knife while the others party elsewhere.

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Ehh, it's been "50 miles northwest for us" for 4 days now. It's getting to the point where we need to see it happen, and the other models shifting SE tonight is disconcerting, even with the Euro doing what it just did.

Euro gives you several inches

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0.56  0.68 altogether at FRG, the first .09 before 8 pm EDT and probably doesn't accumulate well.

 

ETA

 

0.84 ISP (in my head), again knocking off the tenth before 8 pm EDT as melting on contact, 6 inches FRG, 7.5 inches (assuming 10:1 ratios) ISP, mean is 6.7 inches Massapequa/Amityville, which would be a snow day.

 

The funky looking double barreled low with the stronger low well East of the BM, I hate to call the Euro an outlier, but I am far from convinced of a late March snow day.

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Well, Mt. Holly and Upton are a bit more bullish than the models, as far as I can tell, or most of this board, with 2-4" forecast for most of the Mt. Holly CWA and 6" or more forecast for NYC on eastward by the Upton CWA. 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE BASE. THIS WILL DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT THE STORM WILL DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TRACKING OFF THE
EAST COAST...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. A TRACK
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS
SOME MODELS DO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS TO IMPACTS ON THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AN ALL SNOW EVENT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY ON THE EVENT HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW DEEPENS AS MUCH AS FORECAST THIS WILL BE
A POWERFUL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT LEAST FOR
THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014

CTZ005>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-232030-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
 

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THE STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. A SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF LESS THAN 100
MILES IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
IN IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ075&warncounty=NYC047&firewxzone=NYZ075&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
 

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This is looking like one of the most impressive bombogenisis events off Cape Cod that

we have seen in some time. The Hi-res Euro has pressures down to around 950 mb range 

which would among the strongest for that area of ocean. The CMC is very close showing

an exceptional rate of bombing for 6 hrs.

 

 

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That maybe the 1st bit of  good news in last 24 hrs. Do tell : how far west? ( we r talking full sampling now so this maybe quite real even though its 6z)

THe Euro held it's ground and gave NYC 3-6 (Now how much sticks if it hits during the day,but seems like this is being pushed to Tues night/ Wed now.

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