Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If I were to guess, I will say the Euro ensembles will be either in line or east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is this is just the Euro slowly reacting to the east shift the other models had, it tends to not want to make big shifts, and its been magnified a bit this year because there has been alot of big shifts inside 96 hours. It shifted west for LI and SNE though. The other models didn't have anything for SNE. This run just blased LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 50 miles west for you and I and it's a different ball game. That's not much considering we are 3 days out Ehh, it's been "50 miles northwest for us" for 4 days now. It's getting to the point where we need to see it happen, and the other models shifting SE tonight is disconcerting, even with the Euro doing what it just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My guess is this is just the Euro slowly reacting to the east shift the other models had, it tends to not want to make big shifts, and its been magnified a bit this year because there has been alot of big shifts inside 96 hours. i think these models have an agreement among themselves that one will always remain just to twist the knife while the others party elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ehh, it's been "50 miles northwest for us" for 4 days now. It's getting to the point where we need to see it happen, and the other models shifting SE tonight is disconcerting, even with the Euro doing what it just did. Euro gives you several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 84 hour Euro also has most of the precip just Northwest of the 'weaker' (relative term) 972 mb low, and a smaller precip max by the 959 mb low. Just seems off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sharp gradient with the precip, because the 5H low closes off SSE of Montauck at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Give it to this time tomorrow night, if the east trend continues then so be it, but 00z tm night should tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Give it to this time tomorrow night, if the east trend continues then so be it, but 00z tm night should tell the tale. I was originally thinking the same thing, but honestly, I think we will know by the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro on ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How much does the euro show for western Nassau county on the island?? Anything to speak about or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How much does the euro show for western Nassau county on the island?? Anything to speak about or no? Half inch QPF or a shade more. Take off at least a tenth and maybe you'd get 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How much does the euro show for western Nassau county on the island?? Anything to speak about or no? roughly 4 inches from the snow map i saw.... with a big fat "FWIW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 0.56 0.68 altogether at FRG, the first .09 before 8 pm EDT and probably doesn't accumulate well. ETA 0.84 ISP (in my head), again knocking off the tenth before 8 pm EDT as melting on contact, 6 inches FRG, 7.5 inches (assuming 10:1 ratios) ISP, mean is 6.7 inches Massapequa/Amityville, which would be a snow day. The funky looking double barreled low with the stronger low well East of the BM, I hate to call the Euro an outlier, but I am far from convinced of a late March snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks guys!!!!! Hopefully we all see some good model runs tomorrow!!! Not counting on it but really hoping we see something good tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well looks like out by me in Stony Brook is several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Interestingly enough , I see no model to support the probabilities for INLAND locations in PA but this is WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble Mean coming out now, little wetter and west of 12z run. .50" total qpf line now over NYC. .70"+ toal qpf for Central and Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, Mt. Holly and Upton are a bit more bullish than the models, as far as I can tell, or most of this board, with 2-4" forecast for most of the Mt. Holly CWA and 6" or more forecast for NYC on eastward by the Upton CWA. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ346 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHSMONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOMEUPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREESBELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE INPLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFFTHE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROMTHE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGYCROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCEPCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWDTOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THESTORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAYATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILLSHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUENIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVYPCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY431 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS A NORTHERNSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TROUGHEXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH SHORTWAVE MOVINGINTO THE BASE. THIS WILL DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTEARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT THE STORM WILL DEVELOP ANDINTENSIFY RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TRACKING OFF THEEAST COAST...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAINTYREMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. A TRACKSLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ASSOME MODELS DO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK ANDINTENSITY WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS TO IMPACTS ON THEAREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AN ALL SNOW EVENT ISLIKELY TO DEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY ON THE EVENT HAVEINCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONESTUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW DEEPENS AS MUCH AS FORECAST THIS WILL BEA POWERFUL STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AT LEAST FORTHE COASTAL SECTIONS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY421 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014CTZ005>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-232030-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM LATETUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHTHAT THE STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ASTO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. A SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF LESS THAN 100MILES IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCEIN IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A POTENTIALFOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ075&warncounty=NYC047&firewxzone=NYZ075&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ECMWF 3/23 12z should = 00z NAM = 00z GFS = 00z GGEM = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is looking like one of the most impressive bombogenisis events off Cape Cod that we have seen in some time. The Hi-res Euro has pressures down to around 950 mb range which would among the strongest for that area of ocean. The CMC is very close showing an exceptional rate of bombing for 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 6z gfs coming way west of 0z it's not over yet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuttyrich76 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is 6z run complete? How far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 this much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That maybe the 1st bit of good news in last 24 hrs. Do tell : how far west? ( we r talking full sampling now so this maybe quite real even though its 6z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This was 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS 6z goes WEST, nearly DOUBLING QPF from 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This was 0z While I wouldnt say thats WAY West, it appears to be a slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuttyrich76 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That maybe the 1st bit of good news in last 24 hrs. Do tell : how far west? ( we r talking full sampling now so this maybe quite real even though its 6z) THe Euro held it's ground and gave NYC 3-6 (Now how much sticks if it hits during the day,but seems like this is being pushed to Tues night/ Wed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS 6z goes WEST, nearly DOUBLING QPF from 00z run Really? From that image didnt seem radical. QPf numbers please? Jfk KNYC ISP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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