NorthShoreWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Obscure German / French conflict...you had to have been there to get the flavor of it. No seriously, keep this in the 1871 thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43284-1871/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Its not over til we decide its over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? So foolish...everyone knows it was the Sri Lankans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 0z GGEM ensembles are further east. You can't make this up. Everything has been ddownhill as we got closer to every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ray`s history teacher was a Mr Belushi . Another 70's talent lost too soon. Someone ran a youtube of the 79 Grammys. John Denver, Donna Summer, the Bee Gees. And I thought damn these people are all dead. And yet Mick Jagger and Jimmie Page, after years of self abuse, are still going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ray`s history teacher was a Mr Belushi . Well, he had to do something after his term as senator was over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can't make this up. Everything has been ddownhill as we got closer to every event. Ant, we've seen entire winters like this. 2007 comes to mind. Snowed everywhere but here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You still have a powerful system forming, it wouldn't take that much to change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can't make this up. Everything has been ddownhill as we got closer to every event. Don't worry the Euro will be a wide right and take the storm over the Flemish Cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You can't make this up. Everything has been ddownhill as we got closer to every event. The pattern has just been too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If they had moved the clocks forward in April I could have seen the Euro and gone to bed already. I already know it will show a shift East. Ok, I don't *know* that, I just strongly suspect that when the other globals initialized off 0Z data show a shift, it will too. If they get a snow day at parochial schools in far Western Suffolk County, I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has just been too progressive. I thought the pna is suppose to be positive by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has just been too progressive.That's what happens when you have a +ao and +nao. A lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You still have a powerful system forming, it wouldn't take that much to change things. True, but the changes noted seem to be trending further away from a good solution for us. And that has been the story for over a month. To quote Mick Jagger "baby, you're outta time. You're out there without a doubt..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I thought the pna is suppose to be positive by Tuesday. It's a brief +PNA spike. The ridge collapses quickly due the energy coming Pacific and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been progressive since December and we still got nailed this winter. Clearly the nao is highly overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No comments on Euro early changes and improvements? OK, it's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I thought the pna is suppose to be positive by Tuesday. I don't think the ridge/trough is the problem so much. The southern stream disturbance that the northern stream has to phase with is escaping too fast. That disturbance has to slow down so that the better ridge/trough alignment can work. It won't work if the southern stream system is already flooring it off the coast. That might work for Nova Scotia and Nantucket but not west of there. If the Euro joins the other guidance with well out to sea tonight I think it's pretty much over. One or two GGEM runs really nailed all of us and that's been it so far. Everything else has been a graze or out to sea so far and if at this late point models are trending SE I think it's lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been progressive since December and we still got nailed this winter. Clearly the nao is highly overrated.Largely because we had a historically -epo for the past two and a half months. Without that we would have likely had a below average snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been progressive since December and we still got nailed this winter. Clearly the nao is highly overrated. The EPO helped us a lot, but there was also some good luck with arctic jet waves trending more amplified close in to verification. Without many changes, we would have had a very cold but dry/snowless winter. I'd still much rather bet on a negative NAO pattern here than otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The EPO plays a much bigger role than the NAO and we've seen that this winter. Only an anomalously negative NAO really has tremendous impacts for us if the other factors are unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The EPO helped us a lot, but there was also some good luck with arctic jet waves trending more amplified close in to verification. Without many changes, we would have had a very cold but dry/snowless winter. I'd still much rather bet on a negative NAO pattern here than otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro. Hr 72 light precip in the area hr 78 moderate precip LI and S. CT , light/very light elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is a coastal scraper. Still east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro. Hr 72 light precip in the area hr 78 moderate precip LI and S. CT , light/very light elsewhere Hmmm, someone in the NE forum screamed "WAY WEST!!!!!", ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 With the low that close, there should be more precip. Euro develops 2 lows now. 1 closer to the benchmark and another way out to sea. Euro has more precip than the other models. Still really close. Nice run. This run crushes coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hmmm, someone in the NE forum screamed "WAY WEST!!!!!", ? It might be better for eastern LI, but I-95 west, it looks like it may be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It really is sooooo close. Hr 84 eastern LI getting crushed. Mod snow most of LI ..Light to very light snow else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro destroys coastal SNE,especially Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hmmm, someone in the NE forum screamed "WAY WEST!!!!!", ? It's not wayyyy west. It's probably further west than most guidance but meh anywhere outside of LI. Far eastern LI gets a pretty big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hmmm, someone in the NE forum screamed "WAY WEST!!!!!", ? Was it Forky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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