cleetussnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Give up brother. People are hanging on to one run of the euro from 2 days ago, and a couple randomn lonely runs of the the ggem and maybe the ukie showed a benchmark run. The other 50 or so model runs since that show the ots solutions are somehow discounted. Hard to swallow, and the trend for this system IS consistancy. The arguement about the last 3 systems etc...bunk. Those events are not similiar to this set up, except the pattern doesnt support a storm in the nyc region since there is no block. I bailed on this when it became cler the thursday euro run was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I COULD SEE 1-2" FOR NYC ON THE 18Z GFS. I expect sunny skies and temps in the 40's This puppy is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know I have probably annoyed more than a few of the members in the past few days but I truly do appreciate the insight. Maybe this belongs in banter but everyone seems to be here lol. I am not a MET (I know that was obvious) and not working towards my degree but I am a Diehard weather fan. But from this perspective It was not hard to see this was a one in a million shot of all the pieces coming together. Wish we may wish we might. The lack of large scale movements after all the pieces had started to be sampled was telling. The last 3 weeks have also been a sort of foreshadowing of what was to come. Some disagree and that's OK. And with what I have learned over the last 2-3 days there were several other reasons this was likely going to be a near miss for most of us in this area. I think the eastern most tip of the island gets in on some fun action but at this point, although I will continue to follow along, this one is being put to bed by me. Some laugh at gut feelings and non scientific reasons but they have worked out pretty well for me this season. I don't post much but this has easily been my best year of "Calls". Thanks to Earthlight, PB, Forky and Yanks for the info and insight. It's time to let go of old man winters hand I think Don't worry, He will be back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People are hanging on to one run of the euro from 2 days ago, and a couple randomn lonely runs of the the ggem and maybe the ukie showed a benchmark run. The other 50 or so model runs since that show the ots solutions are somehow discounted. Hard to swallow, and the trend for this system IS consistancy. The arguement about the last 3 systems etc...bunk. Those events are not similiar to this set up, except the pattern doesnt support a storm in the nyc region since there is no block. I bailed on this when it became cler the thursday euro run was an outlier. Hopefully we can all agree the GGEM has been terrible the past 45 days with blowing up coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 18Z GEFS moved about 50 miles east - start of a trend or 18Z run nonsense ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And the meltdowns commence. Almost got to within 3 days. People writing this off because of either today's 12z runs or the 18z GFS are just as bad as the people who know it will come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 While I won't consider this threat completely dead until the 12z runs tomorrow, my hand is on the plug and I am about to pull it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People are hanging on to one run of the euro from 2 days ago, and a couple randomn lonely runs of the the ggem and maybe the ukie showed a benchmark run. The other 50 or so model runs since that show the ots solutions are somehow discounted. Hard to swallow, and the trend for this system IS consistancy. The arguement about the last 3 systems etc...bunk. Those events are not similiar to this set up, except the pattern doesnt support a storm in the nyc region since there is no block. I bailed on this when it became cler the thursday euro run was an outlier. Really not true at all..the ukmet, ggem, euro and gfs as well as the ensembles all had accumulating snow of at leaat 4" for nenj, NYC and li. The 18z gfs run is the first to really jump east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The GGEM is only 0.3" at the park. I expect sunny skies and temps in the 40's This puppy is dead For you're area you can tune out. But for Nassau and Suffolk County people the only global model that's a whiff is the GFS. .The UKMET GGEM EURO are not for them . It may be a bitter pill to swallow but until they are out of the woods there's a threat for them . But for you. See ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If you are going to post about the storm being "dead" then please at least clarify that you are blatenly talking about your own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And the meltdowns commence. Almost got to within 3 days. People writing this off because of either today's 12z runs or the 18z GFS are just as bad as the people who know it will come west. Why is it that those who have basically accepted or feel that this will likely be a no show to minimalist event are looked down upon? And Saturday night to Tuesday night is 3 days So most of us made it Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 For you're area you can tune out. But for Nassau and Suffolk County people the only global model that's a whiff is the GFS. . The UKMET GGEM EURO are not for them . It may be a bitter pill to swallow but until they are out of the woods there's a threat for them . But for you. See ya. Dude it's over for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok then stop posting, it's dead threat over right? Just go already and enjoy your spring while people who want to learn stay on and continue to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I love it's dead posts. 3 days out and it's dead. Granted we used up a hell of allot of luck earlier this winter this is definitly not over. A crappy run of the crappy gfs is not a deal maker. I know it's late in the season so people are wishing on warm weather but still. Seems to be allot of bitterness after the last few legit fails. The other thing is this a totally different animal. And coastals love the Gulf Stream so it definitly could still trend west. It's possible this is an allusive mtk special but they are rare. Something similar to the febraury mtk special looks like a good bet in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Why is it that those who have basically accepted or feel that this will likely be a no show to minimalist event are looked down upon? And Saturday night to Tuesday night is 3 days So most of us made it Lol See my next post. This is modeled to be a highly anomalous storm. Even if it happens to miss your backyard. Discussion about how this storm is a failure is absolutely premature and clutters the thread for those who wish to talk about the continued threat for areas covered by this subforum. This isn't missing everyone by 500 miles to the south. Take the cliff jumping to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 18Z GEFS moved about 50 miles east - start of a trend or 18Z run nonsense ? The ensembles of the GFS at this range follow the Op 95% of the time, so no surprise there...the off runs of the GFS have been horrendous all winter, not always but frequently, so I have generally only been following 00 and 12Z guidance the last 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Dude it's over for everyone. LOL. The .75 to 1 inch across long island on the 12z euro was what ? An Initialization error. I'm sure it's frustrating but this was never ur storm. The guys well to you're east are still under the gun . The GFS doesn't see it. OK. But you're Gona have to swing the rest of the global suites east by 12z tomrrw to b sure. Something tell me u will b rooting for that. Right now ur forecast for long island is an outlier according to the totality of the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 LOL. The .75 to 1 inch across long island on the 12z euro was what ? An Initialization error. I'm sure it's frustrating but this was never ur storm. The guys well to you're east are still under the gun . The GFS doesn't see it. OK. But you're Gona have to swing the rest of the global suites east by 12z tomrrw to b sure. Something tell me u will b rooting for that. Right now ur forecast for long island is an outlier according to the totality of the global models. 3+ day 18z GFS > model consensus. Sure, if every model trends E over the next 24 hours then we will account for the new information and adjust accordingly. I don't know about you, but I haven't heard many convincing arguments that it would be considered more likely for that to happen than for the current consensus to remain relatively stable. Actually, to be completely frank about it, the clearly evident CFI on both the Euro and the GFS would argue the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hopefully we can all agree the GGEM has been terrible the past 45 days with blowing up coastal storms. It nailed basically every single Nor'easter we had this winter better and before any other model. It missed some of the other storms, but as far as the Nor'easter go, it was the best of all the models this winter. It's accuracy statistics back this up pretty well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It nailed basically every single Nor'easter we had this winter better and before any other model. It missed some of the other storms, but as far as the Nor'easter go, it was the best of all the models this winter. It's accuracy statistics back this up pretty well also. It had support before. Now its lonely. And support from the pukie does not count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If you are one to buy a qpf map from 4 days away, sure. But at h5, where it counts at medium range, its a fish storm. Model concensus just might nail a storm at 5 plus days this time, and sometimes it just works out that way. That's the first time I've heard that about H5, hmmm. All I've read is the exact opposite.cleetussnow > Meteorologist consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It nailed basically every single Nor'easter we had this winter better and before any other model. It missed some of the other storms, but as far as the Nor'easter go, it was the best of all the models this winter. It's accuracy statistics back this up pretty well also. What did it show for the last 3 coastal storms for NYC in this time period of 3-5 days out? What did NYC get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It had support before. Now its lonely. And support from the pukie does not count. Those are the two models with the highest verification scores. Your comments are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What did it show for the last 3 coastal storms for NYC in this time period of 3-5 days out? What did NYC get? Those were not Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 3+ day 18z GFS > model consensus. Sure, if every model trends E over the next 24 hours then we will account for the new information and adjust accordingly. I don't know about you, but I haven't heard many convincing arguments that it would be considered more likely for that to happen than for the current consensus to remain relatively stable. Actually, to be completely frank about it, the clearly evident CFI on both the Euro and the GFS would argue the other way. I don`t dismiss the GFS because its s@#$ for me , I am just trying to plug into the rest of the guidance and see where continuity is . 3 out the 4 major globals are still on board East of NYC across Central and Eastern Long Island and Eastern CT for a nice event . I assess risk for as living , I never look at one factor when determining how to a price of an instrument , I get it , people get emotional so they want to punt it and others wana see stuff fail . If you`re looking at this objectively areas off to the east are not dead . And a storm that deepens 30 MB in 12 hours is cool if it happens . Would be cooler if happened a little further west . But that's life . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol @ people calling this dead because THEY might not get snow in their backyard. People on long island and eastern new england are very much under the gun, and everyone else still to a lesser degree. This happens every storm. Some people aren't in prime position so they start calling threats "dead" and " its going east, I told you so!" Just because your backyard doesn't jackpot doesn't mean that a storm is "dead" Reality is the gfs didn't look as great. However not all was lost. Some things looked better, some worse. The euro ensembles were clustered heavily on the nw side of the mean, possibly indicating an even further north solution. With a storm of this power and magnitude, who knows what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Those are the two models with the highest verification scores. Your comments are ridiculous. You did not answer my question regarding the GGEM. What did it show for NYC? Past performance does not indicate future performance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol @ people calling this dead because THEY might not get snow in their backyard. People on long island and eastern new england are very much under the gun, and everyone else still to a lesser degree. This happens every storm. Some people aren't in prime position so they start calling threats "dead" and " its going east, I told you so!" Just because your backyard doesn't jackpot doesn't mean that a storm is "dead" Reality is the gfs didn't look as great. However not all was lost. Some things looked better, some worse. The euro ensembles were clustered heavily on the nw side of the mean, possibly indicating an even further north solution. With a storm of this power and magnitude, who knows what will happen Agree my man , its just par for the course in this thread . Speaking of which would love to be at the HO in Chatham for this one . Should be a show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Personally, I don't put much stock in the ggem. One thing about h5 verification scores is that they don't necessarily translate to sensible weather verification. The the ggem flips and flops when it comes to sensible impacts. I think that it's cousin, the rgem, is a much more useful tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don`t dismiss the GFS because its s@#$ for me , I am just trying to plug into the rest of the guidance and see where continuity is . 3 out the 4 major globals are still on board East of NYC across Central and Eastern Long Island and Eastern CT for a nice event . I assess risk for as living , I never look at one factor when determining how to a price of an instrument , I get it , people get emotional so they want to punt it and others wana see stuff fail . If you`re looking at this objectively areas off to the east are not dead . And a storm that deepens 30 MB in 12 hours is cool if it happens . Would be cooler if happened a little further west . But that's life . Very well said, particularly the point about looking at multiple factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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