Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is actually drier than at 0z. Only around .30" qpf for NYC. Less NW. .50"+ for Eastern LI. 0z had a .50" around NYC. The 12z GGEM ensemble mean has .50" to .75" for NYC. Much of LI is .75" -1.00". Wetter than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 New England forum says the euro ensemble mean maybe a tad west of 0z!! looks drier with qpf from NYC-South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 SLP maybe a bit west but drier for sure. Nothing exciting, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Forget about QPF. Its more west than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is actually drier than at 0z. Only around .30" qpf for NYC. Less NW. .50"+ for Eastern LI. 0z had a .50" around NYC. The 12z GGEM ensemble mean has .50" to .75" for NYC. Much of LI is .75" -1.00". Wetter than 0z. To early to be looking at qpf. It's all about the track right now. If this gets as deep as modeld there is going to be a very very sharp cutoff. Somone in this forum will get under a secondary deform and score 6 plus and somone else will cry about their dusting. Crazy crazy dynamics in a bombing low like this. I fully expect cantory to get some thunder snow I'm Boston. And the cape and Down east Maine are in for a classic all out blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Can you call yourself a meteorologist w/o a degree? Only if you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Forget about QPF. Its more west than 0z. It's really exactly the same...it takes a lot of inspection to try and argue that it's west at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's really exactly the same...it takes a lot of inspection to try and argue that it's west at all.Thank you, thought my analysis was spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 For those looking for a possible analog, Forky just posted 1/20-1/21/00...that may be a pretty damn good one although I could see this being 50-75 or so miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i still say give this until Sunday 00z to give up, we've seen some big changes within the 48 hour range Plenty of times this year...and if it skirts us ots, so be it. We had a great winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If there was "feedback" on the gfs and euro runs would that also effect the ensembles? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If there was "feedback" on the gfs and euro runs would that also effect the ensembles? Just wondering. Not really sure. Perhaps a red tagger can chime in. One thing is for sure is what are the odds of both the GFS and EURO having feedback issues in the same 12z suite. May be the models are still struggling with the true placement of our storm. I wouldn't write anything off until we're under 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If there was "feedback" on the gfs and euro runs would that also effect the ensembles? Just wondering. It could happen individually in the ensembles, but convective feedback is independent of each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NAM starting to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 SLP maybe a bit west but drier for sure. Nothing exciting, really. Earth, I've been looking at the western ridge since you mentioned it as a key factor yesterday. To me it seems to be improving, at least in amplitude but it still hasn't sharpened (gone more vertical) much on the eastern flank. Is this one of the reasons we haven't seen a more western track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think it's amazing how consistent the models have been with this storm since day 8 or so. The track really hasn't budged. I think anyone expecting a direct hit is setting themselves up for disappointment unless they're on eastern LI. It's especially agonizing knowing how intense this low is gonna be combined with the fact that this is likely our last shot at anything significant for the season. 100-150 miles makes all the difference in the world. I guess crazier things have happened, but with the way this March has gone, it doesn't leave me with a fuzzy feeling that this will trend our way. Hopefully most of us can at least pick up a few inches as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol apparently u can Re: Can anyone call themselves a meteorologist: True: As of 2011 one could since there is no LEGAL definition of "meteorologist" and if I'm correct, Mississippi State has a two year program and signs off on graduates who consider themselves mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NAM starting to come around. Its so hard to use the NAM's bias because its impossible to tell where the low wants to form, the NAM most definitely does have feedback issues as its trying to pop low centers everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If this thing ends up just east of the BM, what a job by the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think it's amazing how consistent the models have been with this storm since day 8 or so. The track really hasn't budged. I think anyone expecting a direct hit is setting themselves up for disappointment unless they're on eastern LI. It's especially agonizing knowing how intense this low is gonna be combined with the fact that this is likely our last shot at anything significant for the season. 100-150 miles makes all the difference in the world. I guess crazier things have happened, but with the way this March has gone, it doesn't leave me with a fuzzy feeling that this will trend our way. Hopefully most of us can at least pick up a few inches as a consolation prize. I have been impressed with the consistency also. It is very unusual. I think as others have said that once all the factors are in good sampling range, all of the models will shift or stay the same together. I just have a feeling it hasn't stopped moving west. In any case it will be nice to have some snow fall even if it's light and doesn't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If this thing ends up just east of the BM, what a job by the models... So in short, when the models show a hit a few days out, they are unreliable. When they don't, they are reliable. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So in short, when the models show a hit a few days out, they are unreliable. When they don't, they are reliable. Got it.Appreciate your summary. Not sure I have ever said anything of the sort but your usual efforts to troll me into something more will fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I have been impressed with the consistency also. It is very unusual. I think as others have said that once all the factors are in good sampling range, all of the models will shift or stay the same together. I just have a feeling it hasn't stopped moving west. In any case it will be nice to have some snow fall even if it's light and doesn't accumulate. It hasn't really moved west. At this point, areas not directly along the coast should be hoping for a glancing blow at best, not a significant snow storm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It hasn't really moved west. At this point, areas not directly along the coast should be hoping for a glancing blow at best, not a significant snow storm IMO Which Eastern coast specifically? Only LI or Staten/Jersey as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yanksfan takeover, but the ULL is slightly west and ridge out west is sharper compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yanksfan takeover, but the ULL is slightly west and ridge out west is sharper compared to 12z i'm assuming you're referring to the new 18z NAM. It does look really wierd. I'm not an expert at analyzing models so it would be best if someone analyzed it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So in short, when the models show a hit a few days out, they are unreliable. When they don't, they are reliable. Got it. Exactly what I'm thinking. Maybe it's a reverse psychology technique? Lol Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this is going to end up pretty far se on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Appreciate your summary. Not sure I have ever said anything of the sort but your usual efforts to troll me into something more will fall short. Appreciate your summary. Not sure I have ever said anything of the sort but your usual efforts to troll me into something more will fall short. Good lord I wasn't trolling you at all. I was being a bit snide about the models, not about you. have a glass of wine and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i'm assuming you're referring to the new 18z NAM. It does look really wierd. I'm not an expert at analyzing models so it would be best if someone analyzed it for me. No 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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