ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro has about 5" in Central Park by my estimate. I'd write off at least a tenth as rain or white rain. Agree. .09" out of the .64" at KLGA falls before 8pm. I think everything after 8pm is easily accumulating snowfall. Especially on grass and cold surfaces. 4"-5" around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That seems more like the kind of event typical of March, heavy wet stuff. Gone in a day or two, sometimes the next morning. I have a hard time believing that a big blizzard is going to hit, anyway for our area in NJ we seem to be out of it anyway at this point, with nothing indicating otherwise. My winter stuff is all put away and my snowblowers are in storage. Nature will have to clean up whatever falls. Yeah regardless of what we see, in a week its all gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro has about 5" in Central Park by my estimate. I'd write off at least a tenth as rain or white rain. Yeah, I just saw soundings and NYC would definitely get 5 inches as temperatures would be below freezing with at least .50 after that. So, a minimum of 5 inches at NYC on this run of the Euro. This whole thing about temperatures being too warm is nuts. The Euro has SURFACE temps below freezing for 90% of the storm. It may take a little while for temperatures to drop at the start, but it should get below freezing with at least 90% of the storm to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So we have two negative groups here. One saying it will be rain because of temps.. and the other says its out to sea. So we have two negative groups here. One saying it will be rain because of temps.. and the other says its out to sea. Well, we have watched storms all month find a way to avoid the area, so I'm in the camp that it just doesn't want to snow here anymore this year. I think the odds are just way against it. Of course it is possible, old timers used to say in March anything can happen, comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion and all that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, I just saw soundings and NYC would definitely get 5 inches as temperatures would be below freezing with at least .50 after that. So, a minimum of 5 inches at NYC on this run of the Euro. This whole thing about temperatures being too warm is nuts. The Euro has SURFACE temps below freezing for 90% of the storm. Look at ISP though. .99" of precip with none of it below 32 degrees. It's still snow, but it's a wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can we please give forky a timeout, he's so annoying and obnoxious and he got a red tag! Rofl the guy doesn't have a clue about weather!I don't agree. He's not always negative. What he is saying here is supportive of what the models have been showing actually, though not exactly what we want to hear. He does seen to know the weather though. However, he does criticize others when he could explain things insteadSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hi resolution Euro takes this down to 952 mb about 125 east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can we please give forky a timeout, he's so annoying and obnoxious and he got a red tag! Rofl the guy doesn't have a clue about weather! When it comes to meteorology, he DEFINITELY knows what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When it comes to meteorology, he DEFINITELY knows what he is talking about. But I would like to see him to use his skills more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Look at ISP though. .99" of precip with none of it below 32 degrees. It's still snow, but it's a wet snowfall at 33-34 degrees there. Yeah, I don't buy that though. I have seen this before, it shows .1, ..7 but it ends up at 32 with heavy snow. Seen it too many times. With those rates the temperature will get down to freezing and it will accumulate nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When it comes to meteorology, he DEFINITELY knows what he is talking about. His comment (albeit lacking personality) is accurate with regards to surface temps, a real danger here especially is precip is light for a long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When it comes to meteorology, he DEFINITELY knows what he is talking about. Yeah I don't get the hate, the guy seems ok to me. he's been right a lot this month anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes, honestly it did. I have been following these models for almost 20 years. I think future runs could in fact develop the low near Cape Hatteras. This has the potential to continuing trending better, regardless of what Forky keeps saying. In my opinion, the upper level features and surface reflection did not match up. Low should have developed near OBX. If the run would of completed from there with the NW hook, it would of produced a much more snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Early, just judging by the spread on the 09z SREF MSLP, about half of the members are inside of the benchmark with the mean right over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 His comment (albeit lacking personality) is accurate with regards to surface temps, a real danger here especially is precip is light for a long duration. Majority falls in the evening and early overnight with surface well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z RGEM ensembles valid at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Early, just judging by the spread on the 09z SREF MSLP, about half of the members are inside of the benchmark with the mean right over the benchmark. mathematically that puts the other half outside the BM, still a considerable spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's annoying having to repeat so many times the storms where snow accumulated late in the year. April 2003 didn't have exceptionally heavy snow rates and it stuck just fine, everywhere including streets where I am, in the afternoon. And the 850 temps won't be nearly as warm as they were then-it was a very marginal snow event. This one will have 850 temps at -10. That's of course if the storm hits and isn't too far out to sea. I disagree, April 2003 DID have very heavy rates. JFK was 1/4 mile. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2003/4/7/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 mathematically that puts the other half outside the BM, still a considerable spread. It has some members right over the NJ coastline which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can we please give forky a timeout, he's so annoying and obnoxious and he got a red tag! Rofl the guy doesn't have a clue about weather! Knows his stuff better than most. He has been VERY accurate as of late. Just because you don't like the way he comes acrossed doesn't mean he doesn't know his stuff. And just because he goes against the "Weenie" grain doesn't make him wrong either. It is true it's not what you say but how you say it. Unless there is a major map run going than both can count against you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As Forky and others have said, and what I brought up earlier.....with a storm of this strength, areas closer to the storm that see heavy banding WILL accumulate and do it fast. Doesn't matter if it is 25 or 33. Areas away from the heavy banding will have a tough time accumulating whether it is 25 or 33. Sun angle does play a role and spotty precip just will not cut it. Very sharp cutoff between 0 and 6". Right now that appears to be from NYC to maybe eastern LI Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well...well...looks like a large lean on the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As Forky and others have said, and what I brought up earlier.....with a storm of this strength, areas closer to the storm that see heavy banding WILL accumulate and do it fast. Doesn't matter if it is 25 or 33. Areas away from the heavy banding will have a tough time accumulating whether it is 25 or 33. Sun angle does play a role and spotty precip just will not cut it. Very sharp cutoff between 0 and 6". Right now that appears to be from NYC to maybe eastern LI Sent from my iPhone So if I am reading this all correctly, if something were to happen it would be from NYC east. So areas like Middlesex and Union co in NJ don't have to worry about this storm at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There were a few positives today at 12z. The GEFS GGEM EURO all sneak .5 into KNYC and .75 just to the east across long island. I wouldn't have expect thermal profiles to be followed so closely 96 hours out but it's part of the process. A late march winter event looks to b shaping up from NYC east. Not every storm is a blizzard although a foot of snow for someone on this board isn't out of the question as Suffolk County is close If the BL cooperates We can settle that inside 48 hours. For now. There was NO shift east as the models held the 0z euro serve. Now here comes the but. Not a lot of room for error here. Between surface temps with lighter rates and the chance ths still goes east. But as a whole. 12z didnt blow up . So you have to take it. Finer details can be worked out but closer to the coast is prob where you Wana be for this one. Even if the BL looks marginal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What does it mean when the hour 84 SREF is nearly the same position as the GFS and the GGEM and the UKMET and the GEFS mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So if I am reading this all correctly, if something were to happen it would be from NYC east. So areas like Middlesex and Union co in NJ don't have to worry about this storm at this juncture. Not that you dont have to worry, its a matter of probability. The storm is less likely to impact areas west of NYC than east. Remember, these models are for GUIDANCE. they are not writing the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I honestly don't get the logic dictating that because traditionally poor models agree with the heavy hitters, the heavy hitters must be wrong. Isn't it just as likely that there is simply strong model consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As Forky and others have said, and what I brought up earlier.....with a storm of this strength, areas closer to the storm that see heavy banding WILL accumulate and do it fast. Doesn't matter if it is 25 or 33. Areas away from the heavy banding will have a tough time accumulating whether it is 25 or 33. Sun angle does play a role and spotty precip just will not cut it. Very sharp cutoff between 0 and 6". Right now that appears to be from NYC to maybe eastern LI Sent from my iPhone If it's snowing lightly or even moderate in the middle of the day it will not accumulate..come on,we have seen so many March and April storms..if there is heavy snow it's a different story..probably most of the snow that accumulates on the Euro is from late afternoon and night..it's March 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So if I am reading this all correctly, if something were to happen it would be from NYC east. So areas like Middlesex and Union co in NJ don't have to worry about this storm at this juncture. Middlesex and Union are extremely close to NYC, so I wouldn't say that. I thjink most models show accumulating snow making it to eastern Jersey. Western Jersey is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Middlesex and Union are extremely close to NYC, so I wouldn't say that. We are close to State Island, which some people say is part of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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