ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Snow maps have 6"-12" from NYC to Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 and even more marginal sfc temps Sandy redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 light precip with marginal sfc temps Yeah, a light 6 inches of snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 about a 10 mile westward shift in the precip amounts from the high resolution version on Weatherbell. 10 mile eastward shift on the western fringe over far western NJ. Basically a tightening of the whole thing and a 10 mile westward shift. Has NYC up to about 6 inches, 6-9 inches within about 20 miles of the coast in NJ and 6-12 inches from west to east across Long Island. Wow have we been spoiled this winter. People are throwing in the towel already with these accumulations still very possible. I guess maybe b/c they live in the hudson valley? Still, I think the HV will see at least 1 inch. I'll gladly take 2-4 inches and anything more than that would be a surprise. I guess maybe b/c this storm had the potential to be much more and impact us a lot more. And will the storm surge be enough to post coastal flood warnings across coastal NJ and LI? Also, another weird observation. Accuweather says gusts will exceed 50 MPH for NYC on Wednesday, but says gusts will only reach 30 MPH or so for Montauk. Shouldn't it be the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sandy redux. Come again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 about a 10 mile westward shift in the precip amounts from the high resolution version on Weatherbell. 10 mile eastward shift on the western fringe over far western NJ. Basically a tightening of the whole thing and a 10 mile westward shift. Has NYC up to about 6 inches, 6-9 inches within about 20 miles of the coast in NJ and 6-12 inches from west to east across Long Island. That's fine by me. Time is still on our side, as long as there's no future run setbacks, I'll keep banking on these baby steps. All the ensembles today have been west of the OPS. If the EURO ensembles continue with that trend, we head into tonights crucial 00z runs with a lot of momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow have we been spoiled this winter. People are throwing in the towel already with these accumulations still very possible. I guess maybe b/c they live in the hudson valley? Still, I think the HV will see at least 1 inch. I'll gladly take 2-4 inches and anything more than that would be a surprise. I guess maybe b/c this storm had the potential to be much more and impact us a lot more. And will the storm surge be enough to post coastal flood warnings across coastal NJ and LI? Also, another weird observation. Accuweather says gusts will exceed 50 MPH for NYC on Wednesday, but says gusts will only reach 30 MPH or so for Montauk. Shouldn't it be the other way around? Ignore AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, a light 6 inches of snow in NYC. With 850mb temps as cold as they are and especially if it happens at night, I could see it being a nice event even with lighter snow rates. Temps could be in the 20s when the snow is coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No it's not. One frame has .4" in 6 hours. That's not light precip. And LI has even heavier precip. This is not only a NJ forum. NYC and east does well on every 12z model today. The GFS and GGEM only have about 0.3" for Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Did you look at the run?? Hr 84 was so far SE. The run look weird to me. But you can go talk about qpf and snow maps all you want. Edit: it looked to go due north from there and then west of due north the next frame. You need to look at the run before being critical of any post. Just look at hr 84 which is the post in question i looked at the entire run as it was coming in. It was clear to me that it was going to pull back toward the coast. You can see that very clearly at 84 hrs. In fact, I will take this one step further. It would not surprise me one bit if future runs develop the initial low near Cape Hatteras from what I am seeing depicted here still 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding with these late season storms you wind up getting white rain I think you're right. There are a couple storms people regularly reference here, like April 96 and 97, which didn't produce a thing in central NJ. My memory is damn good too. So a LI storm doesn't mean squat to me, it may as well be DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding with these late season storms you wind up getting white rain This isn't your typical late-season storm...Highs on Monday are expected to be 28-31F across the NYC metro. 850s after the storm passes get close to -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Most of snow comes between 0z and 12z Wed. When the temps are in lower 30s and upper 20s inland on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Only .09" falls for NYC and LI before 8pm. Everything else falls from 8pm to 8am. Euro is a 90% night time snowfall. So marginal surface or sun angle is meaningless, if the euros timing is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This isn't your typical late-season storm...Highs on Monday are expected to be 28-31F across the NYC metro. 850s after the storm passes get close to -20C. On Tuesday they will be above freezing (mid-upper 30s) before precip begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This isn't your typical late-season storm...Highs on Monday are expected to be 28-31F across the NYC metro. 850s after the storm passes get close to -20C. Temps on the euro go to 35-37 degrees at 18z Tuesday. But the euro has almost no precip before 8pm Tuesday with the majority of it from 10pm-6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i looked at the entire run as it was coming in. It was clear to me that it was going to pull back toward the coast. You can see that very clearly at 84 hrs. So the run made perfect sense to you? Ok then. It looked like it could bend back looking at h5 but the initial slp placement didn't look right to me. Oh well. To each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think you're right. There are a couple storms people regularly reference here, like April 96 and 97, which didn't produce a thing in central NJ. My memory is damn good too. So a LI storm doesn't mean squat to me, it may as well be DC. Those were stale at 850mb, -5C to 0C, this is much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On Tuesday they will be above freezing (mid-upper 30s) before precip begins. You think the progged highs will be lower due to clouds moving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 3/19/92 storm started with temps in the upper 30s and was mostly a nighttime event but we saw 6-7" of heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So the run made perfect sense to you? Ok then. It looked like it could bend back looking at h5 but the initial slp placement didn't look right to me. Oh well. To each his own. Yes, honestly it did. I have been following these models for almost 20 years. I think future runs could in fact develop the low near Cape Hatteras. This has the potential to continuing trending better, regardless of what Forky keeps saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro has about 5" in Central Park by my estimate. I'd write off at least a tenth as rain or white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You think the progged highs will be lower due to clouds moving in? High temps 35-38 and dry with dews prob in the teens is below normal in JANUARY, temps are not an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think you're right. There are a couple storms people regularly reference here, like April 96 and 97, which didn't produce a thing in central NJ. My memory is damn good too. So a LI storm doesn't mean squat to me, it may as well be DC. It's annoying having to repeat so many times the storms where snow accumulated late in the year. April 2003 didn't have exceptionally heavy snow rates and it stuck just fine, everywhere including streets where I am, in the afternoon. And the 850 temps won't be nearly as warm as they were then-it was a very marginal snow event. This one will have 850 temps at -10. That's of course if the storm hits and isn't too far out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 3/19/92 storm started with temps in the upper 30s and was mostly a nighttime event but we saw 6-7" of heavy wet snow That seems more like the kind of event typical of March, heavy wet stuff. Gone in a day or two, sometimes the next morning. I have a hard time believing that a big blizzard is going to hit, anyway for our area in NJ we seem to be out of it anyway at this point, with nothing indicating otherwise. My winter stuff is all put away and my snowblowers are in storage. Nature will have to clean up whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So we have two negative groups here. One saying it will be rain because of temps.. and the other says its out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's annoying having to repeat so many times the storms where snow accumulated late in the year. April 2003 didn't have exceptionally heavy snow rates and it stuck just fine, everywhere including streets where I am. And the 850 temps won't be nearly as warm as they were then-it was a very marginal snow event. This one will have 850 temps at -10. That's of course if the storm hits and isn't too far out to sea. Really? Seemed to come down pretty fast in April 2003. Fast enough to dismiss the schools early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nuts, it tucks it back northwest. 0.6" or so to NYC, 0.75" for most of LI, 1.00" on the southeast shore. Woww abed on remarks before that .6 post I thought for sure NADA for NYC. question is what made it tuck back in???!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So we have two negative groups here. One saying it will be rain because of temps.. and the other says its out to sea. Not surprisingly, Forky leads both groups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I remember clearly two days before Feb 2006 storm most mets were calling 6-12 for NYC when that low exploded just offshore and dropped 29 inches. Is there anything similar with this storm to the 2006 storm that could make that happen again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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