forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 give up. consensus is just offshore and has been for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 84 is ugly and way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not putting much stock into this run, and I don't say that very often regarding the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still not giving up. Many more rubs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This came close to developing a double barreled low like the GGEM from a few days ago. The waffling continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 i meant runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not putting much stock into this run, and I don't say that very often regarding the Euro. Definitely one funky solution compared to the past EC runs and the other global 12Z run solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nuts, it tucks it back northwest. 0.6" or so to NYC, 0.75" for most of LI, 1.00" on the southeast shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro is still .50"+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still not giving up. Many more rubs to go. lets just hope they don't "rub" some folks the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not putting much stock into this run, and I don't say that very often regarding the Euro. Why would the storm develop further east despite improved upper level features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nuts, it tucks it back northwest. 0.6" or so to NYC, 0.75" for most of LI, 1.00" on the southeast shore. What makes it go back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Why would the storm develop further east despite improved upper level features? It popped 2 areas of convection and then on the next frame the euro jumps the surface low right to it. In the end, the euro is still a very good run for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro is still .50"+ for NYC.light precip with marginal sfc temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It more or less retrogrades the low as it gets captured by the ULL energy attempting to drop into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 light precip with marginal sfc temps No it's not. One frame has .4" in 6 hours. That's not light precip. And LI has even heavier precip. This is not only a NJ forum. NYC and east does well on every 12z model today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 23mb drop in 6hrs from 6 to 12z wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nuts, it tucks it back northwest. 0.6" or so to NYC, 0.75" for most of LI, 1.00" on the southeast shore. Wait what? Are we sticking a Forky in it or is a good solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No it's not. One frame has .4" in 6 hours. That's not light precip. And LI has even heavier precip. This is not only a NJ forum. and even more marginal sfc temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It popped 2 areas of convection and then on the next frame the euro jumps the surface low right to it. In the end, the euro is still a very good run for NYC and LI. I don't know. Something wacky about that run. Convective feedback issues perhaps? Whatever's the case, nice recovery by the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro: Low hooks back west in Gulf of Maine at 951mb at 102hr, than goes east again after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro: Low hooks back west in Gulf of Maine at 951mb. get that hooking west further south and we're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 and even more marginal sfc temps This is a LI storm. Has always been. With NYC on the cusp. Right now, the trends are very good for NYC and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding with these late season storms you wind up getting white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 about a 10 mile westward shift in the precip amounts from the high resolution version on Weatherbell. 10 mile eastward shift on the western fringe over far western NJ. Basically a tightening of the whole thing and a 10 mile westward shift. Has NYC up to about 6 inches, 6-9 inches within about 20 miles of the coast in NJ and 6-12 inches from west to east across Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 give up. consensus is just offshore and has been for days I am going to save all of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 84 is ugly and way east Yes, it gives you an ugly 9 inches of snow there in Merrick. I will take your ugly and go with it. I wish it were that ugly where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 if you're not in the heavy banding with these late season storms you wind up getting white rain I actually agree with this statement. What I don't agree with is the track being locked in while the ensembles continue to tick NW today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes, it gives you an ugly 9 inches of snow there in Merrick. I will take your ugly and go with it. I wish it were that ugly where I am.Did you look at the run?? Hr 84 was so far SE. The run look weird to me. But you can go talk about qpf and snow maps all you want.Edit: it looked to go due north from there and then west of due north the next frame. You need to look at the run before being critical of any post. Just look at hr 84 which is the post in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GEFS 12z canadian 12z euro by hook or by crook... or convective feeback or dumb luck, all have about the same QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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