ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I will be shocked if the Euro does anything wildly different than what we've already seen today. It's going to take new data/observations and all of the major players in dense OBS areas for the big changes to happen, if they are going to happen. Just my opinion. This is the range where the euro went towards the ukmet for last February's blizzard. Gfs and the rest stayed east until inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I will be shocked if the Euro does anything wildly different than what we've already seen today. It's going to take new data/observations and all of the major players in dense OBS areas for the big changes to happen, if they are going to happen. Just my opinion. agree 00z euro was still to far se off the sc coast for a big hit here…..we need that to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 On what run will that take place? My crystal ball of imaginary crap says that it will happen 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is the range where the euro went towards the ukmet for last February's blizzard. Gfs and the rest stayed east until inside of 48 hours. Same thing happend with this February's storm (Feb 13). GFS was East up until like the day of. Problem there was the Euro was WAY inside what it is now. We shall see shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Here's better at look 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Early on comparing the 00z to 12z ECMWF the ridging is coming in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Canadian ensemble mean is 50 miles west of prior run. It now has the .50 line running through NE NJ, with about .60 at NYC and the .75 line brushing coastal NJ and running through western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My crystal ball of imaginary crap says that it will happen 12z tomorrow. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Everything is just a hair west or southwest so far with all features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Regardless of what goes down what a fitting way to end the winter. If this hits hard its an obvious A plus winter. If its a glancing blow it will bump up to an A here. What hasn't been talked about much are the coastal impacts which are going to occur even it's its a near miss. 1991 perfect storm never got that close to li and we had 3 feet of water in the streets in south wantagh under sunny sky's. one of the most amazing events I have ever witnessed and it took everyone by surprise big time. It looks like hurricane force wind warning criteria over the offshore waters. This will push a ton of water into the ny bight similarly to 1991. There are still some major sandy issues that haven't been fixed (dunes on fire island) so this could be something bigger then it normally would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Canadian ensembles are way northwest of their past few runs, phasing faster too. Looks like almost .65" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GGEM ensemble mean is 0.50"+ from KMMU to NYC and 0.75"+ from NYC to eastern Long Island. Twin forks are 1.00"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Canadian ensembles are way northwest of their past few runs, phasing faster too. Looks like almost .65" in NYC. Alot of members near or inside of 40/70 BM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Again --- you had to be excited when not one model moved East so far. I've noticed when that happens you get Ens leaning left...especially with Miller A's. During the Feb 13 storm, the GFS barely even touched us it was so far East, but its Ens always leaned left. To me, this Euro run is important only inasmuch as it does the same thing --- doesn't go drastically East and its Ens lean left. Plenty of time here for a MIller A. Plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Heights are a bit higher along the west coast at 48 hrs on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At hour 48 the ULL in the Pacific is 50 miles SW of its location on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 On mobile, but the 500mb maps I am looking at compared to last nights run look remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The ridging is noticeably stronger this run as the ULL energy amplifies, heights rising over the west coast at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On mobile, but the 500mb maps I am looking at compared to last nights run look remarkably similar. The changes are small but noticeable when you run the 00z run side by side with today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On mobile, but the 500mb maps I am looking at compared to last nights run look remarkably similar. which would go along with your predicition of nothing wildly drastic taking place. If we can get it to stay the same or be slightly inside of last night, i'll take it and look forward to the Ens at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 which would go along with your predicition of nothing wildly drastic taking place. If we can get it to stay the same or be slightly inside of last night, i'll take it and look forward to the Ens at 4PM. I'm shockingly in agreement with Yanksfan. I see small differences in the ULL and ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Everything so far looks just a tick better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm shockingly in agreement with Yanksfan. I see small differences in the ULL and ridging. nice. i don't have any paid sites, just rooting for ANY change inside of last night. If the Ens follow, you have a 'trend' in the right direction for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 The ridging is noticeably stronger this run as the ULL energy amplifies, heights rising over the west coast at hour 54. I don't agree. I think the ridging is about the same and jet streak is on more of a southeast trajectory. This should still develop the initial surface low too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The low ends up forming a hair east of 00z which I don't understand given the improvements with the ULL energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 The ridging is noticeably stronger this run as the ULL energy amplifies, heights rising over the west coast at hour 54. I don't agree. I think the ridging is about the same and jet streak is on more of a southeast trajectory. This should still develop the initial surface low too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The surface low too far east at 72hrs. Even farther east than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At hr 72 def looks too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This run isn't going to get it done, still, I disagree with Earthlight regarding the amplitude of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hr 78 is really far east...wow earthlight ftw like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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