Bobby Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 How much QPF does that equate to? At 10:1 looks about 6-8 maybe 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GEFS looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Gefs look nw of the op fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM is 3-6" for NYC, Eastern NJ, Western LI. 6"-12" for Central and Eastern LI We are likely to see some snow at least with the 500mb PVA coming up along the coast, with the negative trough tilt. FYI The 12z GEFS is wetter and west than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS ensemble mean is significantly better than the prior run. It has shifted the entire precip field 50 miles west of prior run. It now has the .50 line running through NE NJ, .50+ at NYC and .75 brushing coastal NJ and cutting across eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like 0.50 for NYC on the GEFS leaning towards the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The gefs mean slp looks like it passes just to the SE of the BM...very close to a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 BIG NW shift on the GEFS mean. 0.75" plus to NJ coast and 0.50" plus to almost Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like 0.50 for NYC on the GEFS leaning towards the left.it's way better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being that the GFS had been SE at this point with almost any Miller A I can recall...and its ensembles are NW...and the GGEM has some promise.... Writing anything off is nuts at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being that the GFS had been SE at this point with almost any Miller A I can recall...and its ensembles are NW...and the GGEM has some promise.... Writing anything off is nuts at this point. I really hope all those people that said they were writing this off will do so. Bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 BIG NW shift on the GEFS mean. 0.75" plus to NJ coast and 0.50" plus to almost Morristown. THIS is what we need... An encouraging shift. Let's see if the ECMWF makes a move to the NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM is better on eastern LI than the GFS, but for NYC its really about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Partially based on gut feeling, and partially on what models have done in the past.....there will either be a substantial jump west or a substantial jump east. Kinda like gambling on someone else's money it's all part of the fun. (I feel like if this was a mulen post, there should be a symbolic, semi-pervy saying here with the words Mother Nature thrown in, followed by "enjoy the storm folks"). Mulen where are you?! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Partially based on gut feeling, and partially on what models have done in the past.....there will either be a substantial jump west or a substantial jump east. Kinda like gambling on someone else's money it's all part of the fun. (I feel like if this was a mulen post, there should be a symbolic, semi-pervy saying here with the words Mother Nature thrown in, followed by "enjoy the storm folks"). Mulen where are you?! Sent from my iPhone What we need are more post just like this to help clear things up for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 What we need are more post just like this to help clear things up for all of us. And posts like these that add even more value to the posts that "clear things up" for them Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Partially based on gut feeling, and partially on what models have done in the past.....there will either be a substantial jump west or a substantial jump east. Kinda like gambling on someone else's money it's all part of the fun. (I feel like if this was a mulen post, there should be a symbolic, semi-pervy saying here with the words Mother Nature thrown in, followed by "enjoy the storm folks"). Mulen where are you?! Sent from my iPhone I agree, I've said this starting yesterday, due to the significant model agreement at such a relative far out range and some of the lesser talented models largely agreeing with the big dogs I'm inclined to believe some sort of decent shift is still going to occur and its likely to be 00Z or 12Z tonight or tomorrow once we get all the players onto the CONUS...I think its going to be a big wide right or a shift inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Partially based on gut feeling, and partially on what models have done in the past.....there will either be a substantial jump west or a substantial jump east. Kinda like gambling on someone else's money it's all part of the fun. (I feel like if this was a mulen post, there should be a symbolic, semi-pervy saying here with the words Mother Nature thrown in, followed by "enjoy the storm folks"). Mulen where are you?! Sent from my iPhone you would also need to lose the punctuation mulen rocks see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Another encouraging thing is that so far not one model has moved substantially EAST today. Had they done that, spirits would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean has the low closer to SC coast than the 12z GFS at 72hr. Likely made a difference, in the storm coming further west and wetter http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014032212/gfs_mslpa_us_13.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014032212/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I agree, I've said this starting yesterday, due to the significant model agreement at such a relative far out range and some of the lesser talented models largely agreeing with the big dogs I'm inclined to believe some sort of decent shift is still going to occur and its likely to be 00Z or 12Z tonight or tomorrow once we get all the players onto the CONUS...I think its going to be a big wide right or a shift inside the BM. I usually pay close attention to what you have to say, you've had a great winter. But I'm not sure I really get the logic. I am inclined to believe that if you look at it statistically, solutions which have better model agreement at days 5-4-3 will verify better. But I also don't have anything factual to back that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hinyho Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People on this board are always talking about the "Boxing Day Blizzard" It was poorly forecasted storm in the mid range forecasts. The majority of the models only came into alignment within 48 hours of the storm. Here is a good read that explains a lot about that storm. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm dying to see the EURO. I hate these time changes, now if I want to see the 0z run, I have to stay up past 2am. I think the EURO will be the most accurate, but we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Gefs mean looks like the 0z euro. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not surprisingly the GEFS members which show hits here have the surface low inland near OBX initially. That's the game changer as it indicates a more amplified/phased solution in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not surprisingly the GEFS members which show hits here have the surface low inland near OBX initially. That's the game changer as it indicates a more amplified/phased solution in the mid levels. Hope this server can handle the traffic about to bombard this place in about 20 minutes or so john. The 12Z GEFS this far out is pretty good taking into account its typical bias at this range. More than likely in the end this is a storm where the EURO will be having the upper hand, think if this hugs the SE coast on the EURO it will not be punted OTS like the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hope this server can handle the traffic about to bombard this place in about 20 minutes or so john. The 12Z GEFS this far out is pretty good taking into account its typical bias at this range. More than likely in the end this is a storm where the EURO will be having the upper hand, think if this hugs the SE coast on the EURO it will not be punted OTS like the GFS shows I will be shocked if the Euro does anything wildly different than what we've already seen today. It's going to take new data/observations and all of the major players in dense OBS areas for the big changes to happen, if they are going to happen. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I will be shocked if the Euro does anything wildly different than what we've already seen today. It's going to take new data/observations and all of the major players in dense OBS areas for the big changes to happen, if they are going to happen. Just my opinion. On what run will that take place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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