NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I, personally, think there is some merit to having all the disturbances on shore where they can be sampled by weather balloons, but some others would disagree with me. when are they all expected to be on shore ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ukmet at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The GGEM looks unchanged at a quick glance, possibly wobbled one way or the other but still idea of bigger hit eastern LI than NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 was about to post a zoomed in view of the ukie but apparently it has been posted. West of gfs. looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think at this juncture it is pretty hard to ignore that every model has a track that is too far offshore for any significant snow for NYC area. I'm guessing Forky wouldn't write it off totally for Cape and Boston. The Cape is probably in a good spot, but Boston is on the edge like we are. The storm is headed NE after all. It does look really good for parts of Nova Scotia, I'd be excited if I lived in Halifax. We need another 100 mile or so shift west on the model consensus, which is possible, but again that shift boils down to what happens sooner over the Southeast, so I think we can tell what happens with the storm based on what happens sooner on the modeling. If the trough is getting shoved east or the phase happens too late, the storm is over for us, plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I, personally, think there is some merit to having all the disturbances on shore where they can be sampled by weather balloons, but some others would disagree with me. I totally agree with you and I watched your discussion on this yesterday in the New England forum and wanted to comment. I have seen MANY times in the past that storms were modeled to hit us between 10 days and 7 days out, only to be lost for several days, then show up again when those pieces of energy come on shore on the west coast. The storm then reappears in almost identical fashion to what was shown previously. I don't know what other evidence a person would need to come to the conclusion that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The UKMET looks positioned over the benchmark, so that would likely be a nice outcome for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been consistently offshore. But you'll burn yourself more often than not of you call an event over at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ukmet at 96 hrs That looks pretty darn good to me as it is about 100 miles NW of the Euro, and I imagine it was further south and west just prior to this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm inclined to think that without heavy precip rates, the snow will simply not stick too much. The cutoff between almost nothing and 6" should be pretty sharp. Warm ground temps are overrated, I agree. However Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The models have been consistently offshore. But you'll burn yourself more often than not of you call an event over at 90 hours.Agreed, if it showed a big hit people would be crying about being bullseyed 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this from WPC at noon - also they discounted the UKIE solution ..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...EXPECT NEXT TUE-WED TO HAVE A WINTRY FEEL OVER THE EAST WITH HIGHSAT LEAST 10-20F BELOW NORMAL. RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OFF THEEAST COAST AND ITS SUPPORTING ENERGY ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SNOW TOAREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH APERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL. SMALL DIFFS IN SFC LOW TRACKMAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW/DURATION OFSTRONG WINDS OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I, personally, think there is some merit to having all the disturbances on shore where they can be sampled by weather balloons, but some others would disagree with me. So the question I would ask is ... what does "some merit" translate into in terms of making enough of a difference ... and in terms of changing the probabilities already established by the existing runs? Enough to move a forecast track 100-200 miles west when no major models currently depict that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 when are they all expected to be on shore ? They will be coming ashore tonight and should be fully ashore tomorrow 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The UKMET looks positioned over the benchmark, so that would likely be a nice outcome for many of us. H5 closes off further south than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 UKMET/GGEM look like the pound coastal NE...Think I'm going to storm chase if the EURO comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That looks pretty darn good to me, and I image it was further south and west just prior to this frame.A benchmark track is never that good for us inlanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm inclined to think that without heavy precip rates, the snow will simply not stick too much. The cutoff between almost nothing and 6" should be pretty sharp. Warm ground temps are overrated, I agree. However Sent from my iPhone There is no way we'd see much if any accumulation if the 12z GFS track verified, although alot of that falls at night, first off I don't believe that much QPF falls that far west of the low and two its probably going to be about 38/25 when that snow starts right there so you need fairly decent rates, even at night to get to 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So the question I would ask is ... what does "some merit" translate into in terms of making enough of a difference ... and in terms of changing the probabilities already established by the existing runs? Enough to move a forecast track 100-200 miles west when no major models currently depict that? Yes, that is theoretically possible. I'm not saying its going to happen, mind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this from WPC at noon - also they discounted the UKIE solution ..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... EXPECT NEXT TUE-WED TO HAVE A WINTRY FEEL OVER THE EAST WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10-20F BELOW NORMAL. RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OFF THE EAST COAST AND ITS SUPPORTING ENERGY ALOFT MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL. SMALL DIFFS IN SFC LOW TRACK MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW/DURATION OF STRONG WINDS OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS. Would you please provide a link to these discussions? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Agreed, if it showed a big hit people would be crying about being bullseyed 4 days out. You can't win with some people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ggem looks like 10mm-15mm for NYC. 15mm+ for Suffolk County. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A benchmark track is never that good for us inlanders. The UKMET track is 100 miles NW of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM looks similar to its last run...a couple or few inches for the city. However, I don't feel that with light snow rates we will get much accumulation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ggem looks like 10mm-15mm for NYC. 15mm+ for Suffolk County. Solid. KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So the question I would ask is ... what does "some merit" translate into in terms of making enough of a difference ... and in terms of changing the probabilities already established by the existing runs? Enough to move a forecast track 100-200 miles west when no major models currently depict that? With the last Nor'easter of this intensity in December 2010, the models pulled the storm about 500 miles NW with 24 hours to go I believe. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 With the last Nor'easter of this intensity in December 2010, the models pulled the storm about 500 miles NW with 24 hours to go I believe. Correct me if I am wrong. I don't think it was that drastic. It was more like 48 hours, too (GFS was more like 60 or 72, while the Euro had the storm for a while, lost it, and then was the last to get it back about 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ggem looks like 10mm-15mm for NYC. 15mm+ for Suffolk County. Solid. Please provide a link to where you are getting the Canadian this early, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM looks similar to its last run...a couple or few inches for the city. However, I don't feel that with light snow rates we will get much accumulation Sent from my iPhone Timing is at night and the temps will not be warm before storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 CIPS Mean Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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