zs633666 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 what is this? Experimental model. Verification rates on par with the GFS. Just showing nothing is set in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Someone mentioned earlier that Mt Holly noticed some significant initialization errors. Will be interesting to see how that affects things today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A grasping for straws model. If the Euro and ensembles don't seriously come west by 0z tonight I'm pretty much writing this off. Ok write it off, the less whining the better so we can actually focus on the meteorology instead of the constant "oh it's a miss, it's over blah blah blah". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am amazed how many of you are ready to throw the towel in with 96 hrs left to go. The models completely lost the 2010 December blizzard around this time, only to bring it back with 24 hours to go. Any you guys are making these statements based upon seeing the model that has the 4th best verification scores at this range, without even waiting for numbers 1, 2, and 3. I am NOT saying this storm will hit us, it could miss completely, but to throw the towel in at this point is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Experimental model. Verification rates on oar with the GFS. Just showing nothing is set in stoneYou would want that model to be showing the low over land right now rather than the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A grasping for straws model. If the Euro and ensembles don't seriously come west by 0z tonight I'm pretty much writing this off. I think that looks ok . If we go east of here at 12z ok , but you are in the game . JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am amazed how many of you are ready to throw the towel in with 96 hrs left to go. The models completely lost the 2010 December blizzard around this time, only to bring it back with 24 hours to go. Any you guys are making these statements based upon seeing the model that has the 4th best verification scores at this range, without even waiting for numbers 1, 2, and 3. I am NOT saying this storm will hit us, it could miss completely, but to throw the towel in at this point is absurd. I agree its too soon to give up but the models haven't lost this one since they never really had a big hit for us. Boxing day of course had big hits on most models 5-7 days out and then lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zs633666 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You would want that model to be showing the low over land right now rather than the BM Just like the saying we want the GFS to be south and east in this time frame, right? Oh yea, tick West of BM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think that looks ok . If we go east of here at 12z ok , but you are in the game . JMO Is this QPF or accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Just like the saying we want the GFS to be south and east in this time frame, right?No, the GFS is usually the last model to come around and the first to initially sniff it out. I'm not aware of a SE bias with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Is this QPF or accumulation?QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Outside of a rouge GGEM run we haven't seen a big hit yet in the modeling. This continues to waver between way offshore and slightly offshore. The arctic energy phases in too slowly again this run. The phase has to occur while the southern stream is over the Deep South or this is game over except for far eastern sections. General point is well taken but the 12Z Euro on Wednesday was a sizable hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I agree its too soon to give up but the models haven't lost this one since they never really had a big hit for us. Boxing day of course had big hits on most models 5-7 days out and then lost it. The Canadian model had a big hit already. The Euro was close to several big hits days ago, but hit south of us instead. It only needs to show hits from here on in. The potential was always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Is this QPF or accumulation? Euro QPF which falls between 96 and 108 . But you have to look at the whole suite this afternoon , because there`s a little more dat absorbed . The Euro may go east - but I would just look at all the models today before I pull any fire alarms . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This west east business is just windshield wipers. Problem is the most west models are a glancing blow and most east show nothing. We're on the left edge of the threat cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 QPF Oh, okay. So that means are 6+ numbers still on the table for Long Island with latest models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I agree its too soon to give up but the models haven't lost this one since they never really had a big hit for us. Boxing day of course had big hits on most models 5-7 days out and then lost it. comparing this to Boxing Day is wrong IMO - like you said Boxing Day was on the models as a direct hit then they lost it for a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 General point is well taken but the 12Z Euro on Wednesday was a sizable hit.But it was a sizeable hit because of late energy wrapping in on the backside of the trough. That's delayed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Right now, Let's clarify.....for the NYC/NENJ metro area we need a huge shift to get a major snow storm. For eastern Long Island, a major snowstorm is VERY possible (6"+) with very strong winds and blizzard conditions Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ukmet looks well east. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Those who feel like kissing this goodbye just lovely. Go enjoy your Sat.. Those of us with functional open minds see improvement in ridging & know full sampling within 12 hours so we shall wait THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Like I suggested earlier (and I'm sure a red tagger can back me up), there is no such thing as "full sampling", much less a deadline as to when that would occur. Unless you truly understand how NWP works, you're basically spreading folklore when you talk about data ingestion and things like that. It may have some merit, but it shouldn't be your only reason for clutching to a threat that has no support from any operational guidance. The surface low will be developing within 72 hours, so we're rapidly losing our buffer time for large shifts. I suggest accepting the system for what it is... an exercise in observing explosive cyclogenesis. Sunrise on Wednesday will yield some beautiful vis satellite imagery, and hopefully somebody on the beach can take some killer pictures of the snow and surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Canadian model had a big hit already. The Euro was close to several big hits days ago, but hit south of us instead. It only needs to show hits from here on in. The potential was always there. The potential is STILL there : Euro and Euro ensembles are NOt chicken feed. the former was .8 for JFK last run. the latter came 100 miles West shortly thereafter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Oh, okay. So that means are 6+ numbers still on the table for Long Island with latest models?we're almost 4 days out, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No way. You know better than this not to give up something 3 days away. Also, some improvements on this run. I think at this juncture it is pretty hard to ignore that every model has a track that is too far offshore for any significant snow for NYC area. I'm guessing Forky wouldn't write it off totally for Cape and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I would suggest looking at the GGEM and most importantly Euro before losing or gaining confidence today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Link? When I say well east, I mean it's similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think one thing is for sure.....a big warmup will follow this, so let's get ready for spring ! One good point is that if we miss, it'll all be gone for everyone within a couple of days anyway. I would never have taken away my 1-2 foot long-lasting snow cover that I had for a quick foot of snow late march that melts in a day or two ! We had TRUE WINTER this past season Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Link?Using the crappy French Maps that come out first it doesn't look awful. It's hard to tell though. I'll wait til it comes out on Plymouth or meteocentre then post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Like I suggested earlier (and I'm sure a red tagger can back me up), there is no such thing as "full sampling", much less a deadline as to when that would occur. I, personally, think there is some merit to having all the disturbances on shore where they can be sampled by weather balloons, but some others would disagree with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think at this juncture it is pretty hard to ignore that every model has a track that is too far offshore for any significant snow for NYC area. I'm guessing Forky wouldn't write it off totally for Cape and Boston. The Euro and its ensembles have 5 inches at NYC and 6-10 inches for coastal NJ and Long Island, so I have no idea what you are talking about. The Euro has the highest verification scores of any model and has the precip shield further west than any other model. Maybe you should read some of the posts prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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