nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Oh PLEASE dont start the argument about Snow accumilating during mid day in March. Track is there? if Yes then with bombogensis, there will be rates & cold. end of a super silly discourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And you are so sure you are correct that it will have trouble accumulating because you're sure it will be mid day and to warm with sun angle? He was right that the biggest factor is track. .. Not time of day and sun angle as you suggested. It will depend on timing and location. Those who are "fringed" (not in the heavy bands) might appear to get a few inches on the models, but if its during the day, chances are alot will melt on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Oh PLEASE dont start the argument about Snow accumilating during mid day in March. Track is there? if Yes then with bombogensis, there will be rates & cold. end of a super silly discourse. Amen to that. Hardly the biggest factor at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Keep in mind, POP cares nothing for amount... 0.01" verifies a 100 POP. Understood, a lot has gone right in the last 12 hours & if the next 12 hours go equally right we will have gone a long way towards something quite special if those progged bombing rates are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think you need a history lesson - the only reason that it accumulated in the middle of the day on April 6, 1982 was because temps were dropping through the mid 20's - the storm this week will not have those kind of very cold temps during the daylight hours http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA[/quote Euro 850s are minus 10. The surface is in the upper 20s from hour 96 thru 108 with this. There was just 8 inches of snow in DC last week during the day with temps in the upper 20s similar climo So it's a non argument as the euro has the 1 inch liquid line 35 miles SE of KNYC. As it is the 0z euro op is 8 inches from the Nassau Suffolk border east . One more tick west And it's a major snowstorm from I 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It will depend on timing and location. Those who are "fringed" (not in the heavy bands) might appear to get a few inches on the models, but if its during the day, chances are alot will melt on contact. Exactly. You will want to be under the heavier stuff in this regard. .. Also those who are fringed well not experience enough dynamic cooling to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The temps are progged to be plenty cold pazzo First of all I am NOT Pazzo - and who exactly is progging temps to be plenty cold ? Here is Uptons forecast TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 First of all I am NOT Pazzo - and who exactly is progging temps to be plenty cold ? Here is Uptons forecast TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. Look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Are we looking at Dec 2010 winds if this tracks close enough to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It will stick everywhere given how cold it should be. 850mb temps may be below -10. No question. 0z euro is minus 10 surface upper 20s. Now you just need rates the euro is a tick away from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 First of all I am NOT Pazzo - and who exactly is progging temps to be plenty cold ? Here is Uptons forecast TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. You do know these forecasts change based off the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I remember receiving several inches of snow in April. I forgot which year it was though. If the rates are good, it will have no problem sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Unless you get 1 inch rates it won't in late March with surface temps around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 First of all I am NOT Pazzo - and who exactly is progging temps to be plenty cold ? Here is Uptons forecast TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. That's not how u analyze snow fall. U have to look at the hours at which precip is falling and match up the surface temps. Hr 96 thru 108 it's in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 First of all I am NOT Pazzo - and who exactly is progging temps to be plenty cold ? Here is Uptons forecast TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. Congrats on showing Upton's forecast. You're better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NOOOOOO!!! We need you forecasting biblical amounts of 24-36" with 10 foot drifts lasting until June!!!!! Sent from my iPhone I post a pic of people jumping off a cliff (which I still say some will do by Sunday) and it gets deleted. C*** like this stays? Lol makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Question: How strong was the March 2001 storm modeled for our area to be? Unless you get 1 inch rates it won't in late March with surface temps around 30. Sun angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Are we looking at Dec 2010 winds if this tracks close enough to the coast? My bet is that winds will be close to it if not stronger. 2010 wasnt as strong as this storm is progged to be yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Unless you get 1 inch rates it won't in late March with surface temps around 30. Fair but .8 is to jfk. 1 inch is at Bayshore and points east. The 1 Inch line sits 35 miles SE of NYC. As per 0z euro. It's right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I remember receiving several inches of snow in April. I forgot which year it was though. If the rates are good, it will have no problem sticking. That was April 2006 when the temps were in the low 40's shortly before the snow began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My bet is that winds will be close to it if not stronger. 2010 wasnt as strong as this storm is progged to be yanks Dec 2010? Probably similar winds if this takes a similar track. Def not March 2010 tho lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That was April 2006 when the temps were in the low 40's shortly before the snow began. Thanks Chris. I don't think anyone predicted several inches that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know it's dumb but how is the NAM looking so far on my phone can't see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Unless you get 1 inch rates it won't in late March with surface temps around 30. Wow, are you serious? We have gotten accumulating snow here every few years in April with rates MUCH less than that. I really have no idea what you are talking about at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Question: How strong was the March 2001 storm modeled for our area to be? Sun angle? It's late March..unless it snow's at night, or you get great rates during the day..say an inch an hour,it will not stick on warm surfaces,roads,sidewalks,even grass..two storms I remember that did stick during the day were April 82 and April 03..and the rates were an inch an hour..at night it doesn't matter as long as it's below 32.Please watch the yankee opening day game in 1996..it was coming down hard during the game with temp near freezing and nothing sticked,it finally did when the sun was going down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know it's dumb but how is the NAM looking so far on my phone can't see Way east but who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thanks Chris. I don't think anyone predicted several inches that day. Sure Anthony. We dropped from 42 down to 33 late in the morning and then the sun came out after and it quickly melted. But it was a great site to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That's not how u analyze snow fall. U have to look at the hours at which precip is falling and match up the surface temps. Hr 96 thru 108 it's in the upper 20s. So you are saying Upton is wrong ? If so give them a call please - see what their response is and let us know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thought we wanted the NAM to be super amped and west red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So you are saying Upton is wrong ? If so give them a call please - see what their response is and let us know No , Upton is giving you a 24 hour temp max. But the individual 6 hour increments when its precipitating its in the upper 20`s . Easy to see no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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