brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does this support a closer to the coast track on the 6z GFS? It closes off west of the BM. The surface doesn't match up to my untrained weenie eyes. Mets? Sometimes the surface will trend over to the h5 if it is consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The next few days of runs will be telling to refine the track and see if the Euro still goes somewhere under 960 mb around 40N. But it has been signaling a very deep low potential somewhere off the coast for days now. actually IMO we will have a very good idea after todays model runs - the accurate sampling will be injected into the models - also this looks like the main impact will be felt right along the coast anyone west of NYC metro will have minimal impact - models have been consistent with the too far east solutions - ridge out west continues to be flattened which forces storm further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z models 3/22 50% 50% 00Z models 3/23 for the most part 12Z models 3/23 Miss a 1 in a 100 year event by 275 miles We also missed a 1 in a million year astronomical event last Thursday morning due to clouds. Another dud SVR weather season this summer... w/ colder than normal water. The backdoor summer of 2014 would really be BM on a stick for us. The El Nino starting later up this spring gives bad summer weather matches like 1992, 1997 and 2009 . NOOOOOO!!! We need you forecasting biblical amounts of 24-36" with 10 foot drifts lasting until June!!!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does this support a closer to the coast track on the 6z GFS? It closes off west of the BM. The surface doesn't match up to my untrained weenie eyes. Mets? How does it not match up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The only way to get this west is to throw out the snow blower and earplugs for Tuesday morning garbage. Who are you and what have you done with Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 06z GEFS mean was a tick East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not a factor due to issues Timing ( will come at night into morning ) and anamolous cold. If this baby shifts west due trough going negative, an earlier phase and or baroclinic zone none of this will matter @ all because QPF will explode & e will be in CCB. Lets let her play out today. This will be an exciting day to say the least. huh ? IF is a big word and no evidence yet it will turn negative in time and you are so sure about the time of day timing ?- most forecasts have this starting tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC Wow... is that in the 970s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow... is that in the 970s? Looks like 972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow... is that in the 970s? Looks like 960s but I'm blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow... is that in the 970s? Major storm for SE New England, but for NYC and most of LI it is pretty much BM on a stick of what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 huh ? IF is a big word and no evidence yet it will turn negative in time and you are so sure about the time of day timing ?- most forecasts have this starting tuesday afternoon WPC doesnt think its a big IF. Look how bullish prior to last nights bullish Euro ( Update at 1250am ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 huh ? IF is a big word and no evidence yet it will turn negative in time and you are so sure about the time of day timing ?- most forecasts have this starting tuesday afternoon And you are so sure you are correct that it will have trouble accumulating because you're sure it will be mid day and to warm with sun angle? He was right that the biggest factor is track. .. Not time of day and sun angle as you suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Major storm for SE New England, but for NYC and most of LI it is pretty much BM on a stick of what could have been. Can we get a mod to look into this. ..I think we have a hacked account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People are too fascinated about time of day. How bout we work on getting it more west and then it wont matter what time of day it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 People are too fascinated about time of day. How bout we work on getting it more west and then it wont matter what time of day it is. April 1982 accumulated in the middle of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 April 1982 accumulated in the middle of the day Exactly. .. That whole argument is ridiculous and to say that will be the biggest determining factor in accumulations is irresponsible at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 April 1982 accumulated in the middle of the day Yes, mainly on sidewalks and grass at least in Brooklyn, not really on asphalt as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And you are so sure you are correct that it will have trouble accumulating because you're sure it will be mid day and to warm with sun angle? He was right that the biggest factor is track. .. Not time of day and sun angle as you suggested. Thank you Pens. I think by 230pm today we will know if we have the beginning of a trend or not. Im more optomistic because the size of jump taken by the Euro Ensembles, which does well in this time frame, was not a modest one. One more smilar jump, for the right reasons ( Ie. ridging out west , a slightly earlier phase) will make this place sheer mayhem in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does this support a closer to the coast track on the 6z GFS? It closes off west of the BM. The surface doesn't match up to my untrained weenie eyes. Mets? I'm not sure about that. I've often seen intense lows have areas of lesser vorticity wrap around their center often in the eastern or northeastern sectors. I can't say with precision where the surface low would be strictly from the 500 mb chart as more is involved, but the surface depiction is not unreasonable given what I've seen in the past if one places the lower vorticity into the northeastern sector. Note: My reference deals strictly with the placement of the surface low on the GFS relative to its depicted 500 mb pattern. This reference makes no assumptions whether the GFS or ECMWF are more likely to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hasnt the last few storms the last minute trends were too much energy on the back side? If so isnt that what we would want in for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hasnt the last few storms the last minute trends were too much energy on the back side? If so isnt that what we would want in for this storm? The last few storms have NOTHING to do with this storm. They arent analgeous in the least as this is a Miller A. Moreoevr , its relation with the PV is , one of the bigger differences: the elongation of the PV in this case will actually prove helpful to the cause of proximity of the SLP to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 MT Holly mentions the Rex Block being stronger than modeled. THE MODELS DID NOT BACK OFF, IN FACT BECAME MORE BULLISH, WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANYONE WHO HAS PLANS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY ADVERSE WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BRING MULTI FACETED CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SNOW TO WINDS AND TIDAL FLOODING. THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATION DIDNT IMPRESS AND WHILE THE ERRORS WERE NOT BLATANT, THERE WERE MULTIPLE 10-20M ONES IN CANADA AND ALASKA CENTERED ON THE REX RIDGE BEING STRONGER AND RIDGING ENTERING BC. THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE ENTERING THE DENSER RAOB NETWORKS AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO SOUNDING RUNS TO SEE IF THE 00Z TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES. THERMALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME A WRF-NMMB AND GFS BLEND SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes, mainly on sidewalks and grass at least in Brooklyn, not really on asphalt as I recall.That's not true at all. Was in park slope in 82 10 inches of snow. It stuck everywhere Snow plows were out This will too if it ticks west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Exactly. .. That whole argument is ridiculous and to say that will be the biggest determining factor in accumulations is irresponsible at best I think you need a history lesson - the only reason that it accumulated in the middle of the day on April 6, 1982 was because temps were dropping through the mid 20's - the storm next week will not have those kind of very cold temps during the daylight hours http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That's not true at all. Was in park slope in 82 10 inches of snow. It stuck everywhere This will too if it ticks west. temps were borderline, I was in the southern most part of Brooklyn right on canarsie shore, slush at best on asphalt but truly not snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That's not true at all. Was in park slope in 82 10 inches of snow. It stuck everywhere This will too if it ticks west. It will stick everywhere given how cold it should be. 850mb temps may be below -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think you need a history lesson - the only reason that it accumulated in the middle of the day on April 6, 1982 was because temps were dropping through the mid 20's - the storm next week will not have those kind of very cold temps during the daylight hours http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA The temps are progged to be plenty cold pazzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC doesnt think its a big IF. Look how bullish prior to last nights bullish Euro ( Update at 1250am ) Keep in mind, POP cares nothing for amount... 0.01" verifies a 100 POP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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