bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Euro is even a several mb deeper than the March 93 superstorm as it approaches 40N. The hi-res Euro has pressures near 950 mb and the March storm was 960-961 mb this far north. That's basically a March hurricane force storm for the shipping interests well east of the coast. The surfers are going to love the swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 0z Euro ensemble mean was farther west than last run and similar to 0z Euro operational. 988mb low over 38N/70W at 102hr. 978mb low over 40N/66W at 108hrs. H5 closes off 108hrs. Euro control is little farther west with a 960mb low at 40N/68W. 14 out 51 individual members tracks inside the 40/70 BM. 15 members show 6"+ of snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 And how can a weenie not like the WPC discussion? Going to be a close call for this forum, but I assume the eastern LI/SE New England folks are starting to really get excited... Nope, not quite yet. Models seem to be honing in on a powerful storm at least, now if we start seeing some consensus on a BM track sometime later sunday, I'll be naked and confused since I've already put winter on the shelf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 6 gfs did not look really good, actually terrible. Do we have any models showing a widespread snow storm for the area. I can't locate one model. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean precip shield from the Delmarva north was about 100 miles NW of the prior run. This was just a massive shift northwest for one run of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z Euro Ensembles took an insanely encouraging jump northwest. That is precisely what I wanted to see overnight. Need it to continue today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean precip shield from the Delmarva north was about 100 miles NW of the prior run. This was just a massive shift northwest for one run of the model. A very strong and potentially dangerous storm, indeed. If this beast were to trend just another 100 miles westward, lookout! Don't like to sound like I'm bantering, but biggest runs coming up today and tonight in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A very strong and potentially dangerous storm, indeed. If this beast were to trend just another 100 miles westward, lookout! Don't like to sound like I'm bantering, but biggest runs coming up today and tonight in years. In late March to boot.... if this storm comes to fruition, we could have a MECS on our hands. We need to look for a quicker phase and better positioning and tilt of the western ridge. Let's keep the west runs going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z Euro Ensembles took an insanely encouraging jump northwest. That is precisely what I wanted to see overnight. Need it to continue today. We'll probably know relatively early in the 12z run of the Euro today if we see the low strengthening faster and closer to the SE Coast as we get some better RAOB sampling of the energy today. SUNY STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR BOTH ECMWF AND GEFS HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED THAT THE PAC NW ENERGY ARRIVING ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON THE EVENTUAL NORTH-SOUTH UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK. AT LEAST WITH THE GEFS ON THE 12Z RUN...IT IS NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN FROM NW CANADA. IT HAS ALSO SHOWN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS A LARGE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 0z Euro ensemble mean was farther west than last run and similar to 0z Euro operational. 988mb low over 38N/70W at 102hr. 978mb low over 40N/66W at 108hrs. H5 closes off 108hrs. Euro control is little farther west with a 960mb low at 40N/68W. 14 out 51 individual members tracks inside the 40/70 BM. 15 members show 6"+ of snow for NYC. meaning 70 % of the members don't show 6 inches - what percentage shows under 2 inches ? Just trying to inject some reality into the conversation - have to look at both sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Both the CMC and Euro have sub 960 pressures as this is near 40N. If these models are correct, it could be the first time in March that a storm gets within 150 miles of the benchmark with that low a pressure maybe in 100 years. I am not sure if there have been other instances or not outside of hurricanes. The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10" (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor'easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini, "Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 But more members joined the closer to the coast camp than 12z. Thats whats important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It seems that the GFS has actually been fairly consistent with its solution. There's been a bit of wobbling here and there , but for the most part it's been supportive of a 1-3" snowfall here, with 2-4" for Long Island and possibly an all out blizzard for cape cod. The reality is that we'd want to see this at least show some signs of a leap west on more than 1 or even 2 of the models. With a pressure forecasted to be this low, bombing out this quick, it would be a frustrating time for us if we did not get to join in on the fun. I'm hoping with the 12z runs and especially the 00z runs tonight, we start to see more than just one hint on the models that it will trend west Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 meaning 70 % of the members don't show 6 inches - what percentage shows under 2 inches ? Just trying to inject some reality into the conversation - have to look at both sides @ this juncture accumilations matter in the least. Most important is track, track and track- just as with real estate Location, location location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 meaning 70 % of the members don't show 6 inches - what percentage shows under 2 inches ? Just trying to inject some reality into the conversation - have to look at both sides At 12 z yesterday the Euro OP had .2 into KNYC .4 into coastal NJ and onto Long Island. At 0z the Euro Op brought .5 into KNYC .7 into CNJ from the city S. .8 to JFK. .9 to the Nassau Suffolk border and 1 inch right thru bay shore and points east. This was a huge jump west , it takes a center from 994 to 957 in 12 hours to just east of the BM This is the reality. The models are printing out one fastest deepening systems at you're latitude many have seen in a while. One more step west and I will understand if a fire alarm or 2 get pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being 3 days out, by 0z tonight we should know for sure if we're just getting brushed or something more. At 2 a 2.5 days the models usually get to the 'near final' outcome.... We need 150 miles or so and then we'll be in business...crunch time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 meaning 70 % of the members don't show 6 inches - what percentage shows under 2 inches ? Just trying to inject some reality into the conversation - have to look at both sides I'm just using NYC as the midpoint. The rest of members show less than 6" from NYC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Both the CMC and Euro have sub 960 pressures as this is near 40N. If these models are correct, it could be the first time in March that a storm gets within 150 miles of the benchmark with that low a pressure maybe in 100 years. I am not sure if there have been other instances or not outside of hurricanes. The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10" (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor'easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini, "Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) Tremendous upward motion with Banding , thunderstorms with wind. Close to the center ! The 1 inch line is 50 SE of KNYC on the 0z OP. That's a hiccup away. But I agree 37 MB to 956 in 12 hours is something we don't see at 40 in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being 3 days out, by 0z tonight we should know for sure if we're just getting brushed or something more. At 2 a 2.5 days the models usually get to the 'near final' outcome.... We need 150 miles or so and then we'll be in business...crunch time Based on last Euro run Id argue we can settle for 100 Miles & we would all be very happy campers, also FYI we r stil 3.5 days out but I agree the next 24 hours will tell the tale. If the GFS steps up and goes west in 3 hours this server will be near breaking point for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 @ this jucture accumilations matter in the least. Most important is track, track and track- just as with real estate Location, location location. you forgot time of day and intensity of the precip THAT is what is going to be the main determinant of snowfall amounts because it is 1.The last week of March. 2. Much stronger sun angle with longer daylight hours. 3. Temperatures that are borderline . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Tremendous upward motion with Banding , thunderstorms with wind. Close to the center ! The 1 inch line is 50 SE of KNYC on the 0z OP. That's a hiccup away. But I agree 37 MB to 956 in 12 hours is something we don't see at 40 in March. The next few days of runs will be telling to refine the track and see if the Euro still goes somewhere under 960 mb around 40N. But it has been signaling a very deep low potential somewhere off the coast for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 you forgot time of day and intensity of the precip THAT is what is going to be the main determinant of snowfall amounts because it is 1.The last week of March. 2. Much stronger sun angle with longer daylight hours. 3. Temperatures that are borderline . Not a factor due to issues Timing ( will come at night into morning ) and anamolous cold. If this baby shifts west due trough going negative, an earlier phase and or baroclinic zone none of this will matter @ all because QPF will explode & e will be in CCB. Lets let her play out today. This will be an exciting day to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 0z Euro 300mb positioning of phased jet streaks, suggest the surface low placement over the 40/70 BM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does this support a closer to the coast track on the 6z GFS? It closes off west of the BM. The surface doesn't match up to my untrained weenie eyes. Mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z models 3/22 50% 50% 00Z models 3/23 for the most part 12Z models 3/23 Miss a 1 in a 100 year event by 275 miles We also missed a 1 in a million year astronomical event last Thursday morning due to clouds. Another dud SVR weather season this summer... w/ colder than normal water. The backdoor summer of 2014 would really be BM on a stick for us. The El Nino starting later up this spring gives bad summer weather matches like 1992, 1997 and 2009 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being 3 days out, by 0z tonight we should know for sure if we're just getting brushed or something more. At 2 a 2.5 days the models usually get to the 'near final' outcome.... We need 150 miles or so and then we'll be in business...crunch time Nope. Not until Monday, don't forget past storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z models 3/22 50% 50% 00Z models 3/23 for the most part 12Z models 3/23 Miss a 1 in a 100 year event by 275 miles We also missed a 1 in a million year astronomical event last Thursday morning due to clouds. Another dud SVR weather season this summer... w/ colder than normal water. The backdoor summer of 2014 would really be BM on a stick for us. The El Nino starting later up this spring gives bad summer weather matches like 1992, 1997 and 2009 . Don't abandon us now when we need ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If the models are consistent on placement of upper-level and mid-level features, often the surface and low-level centers will trend closer to it, from my experience. The key here is consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Don't abandon us now when we need ya! Nah, this is good......he's been all over the misses (banter...sorry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does this support a closer to the coast track on the 6z GFS? It closes off west of the BM. The surface doesn't match up to my untrained weenie eyes. Mets? The only way to get this west is to throw out the snow blower and earplugs for Tuesday morning garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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