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Potential Late March Cold Snap & Snow Event March 24-26, 2014


tnweathernut

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Looks like tri has a good shot Knoxville not so much.

 

GFS has fairly consistently been trying to put down two if not three inches in Knoxville with temps bottoming out near 20 degrees.  Do I believe that happens?  Naw, but it certainly causes one of my eyebrows to raise.

 

Edit:  That's at 11:1 ratio, Cobb not as generous.

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GFS has fairly consistently been trying to put down two if not three inches in Knoxville with temps bottoming out near 20 degrees.  Do I believe that happens?  Naw, but it certainly causes one of my eyebrows to raise.

 

Edit:  That's at 11:1 ratio, Cobb not as generous.

QPF'S .29 for tys GFS18Z

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Love MRX forcast for Monday night  and Tues.                                                                                                                                                                            Monday night:  Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s.                                                                                                                                 Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.                                                                                                                       Could be right though.

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Models are struggling with the 3 pieces of energy. This far out I would not worry too much about zig zags. Agree with WPC that baroclinicity is favorable in March. On the other hand this thing gens up a little late for Tennessee, even the bomb forecasts.

 

Still 4 days out lots can and will change. Tennessee Valley needs include better high press straight to our north, and earlier spin up of the storm. Current forecasts have surface highs over the Plains and Northeast; but, not ideal cold push from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. That said temps upstairs from 850 up are cold enough and the Sunday system digs the mean tough/jet stream south.

 

Bottom line: I would not worry too much about exact model tracks, short-wave phases, or QPF until 12Z Saturday or even 00Z Sunday runs. Pattern is friendly if the storm develops right.

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Models are struggling with the 3 pieces of energy. This far out I would not worry too much about zig zags. Agree with WPC that baroclinicity is favorable in March. On the other hand this thing gens up a little late for Tennessee, even the bomb forecasts.

 

Still 4 days out lots can and will change. Tennessee Valley needs include better high press straight to our north, and earlier spin up of the storm. Current forecasts have surface highs over the Plains and Northeast; but, not ideal cold push from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. That said temps upstairs from 850 up are cold enough and the Sunday system digs the mean tough/jet stream south.

 

Bottom line: I would not worry too much about exact model tracks, short-wave phases, or QPF until 12Z Saturday or even 00Z Sunday runs. Pattern is friendly if the storm develops right.

Do you really think the boundary will slip that far S?

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Monday night and Tuesday snow looking less likely for the Valley. Tri Cities might get light snow for two reasons. First is climo. Second TRI is the only place that might have a prayer with the phase apparently failing, or not happening until too far east. Phase fail creates temperature problems everywhere except TRI. Now just 60-72 hours away, I doubt models are missing it. Barring a major change this is my last post for the event in Tenn.

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