tnweathernut Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Might as well discuss it. It's not every day we track winter while almost to April. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks like tri has a good shot Knoxville not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks like tri has a good shot Knoxville not so much. GFS has fairly consistently been trying to put down two if not three inches in Knoxville with temps bottoming out near 20 degrees. Do I believe that happens? Naw, but it certainly causes one of my eyebrows to raise. Edit: That's at 11:1 ratio, Cobb not as generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS has fairly consistently been trying to put down two if not three inches in Knoxville with temps bottoming out near 20 degrees. Do I believe that happens? Naw, but it certainly causes one of my eyebrows to raise. Edit: That's at 11:1 ratio, Cobb not as generous. QPF'S .29 for tys GFS18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Love MRX forcast for Monday night and Tues. Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 QPF'S .29 for tys GFS18Z Meteogram is showing 2.2 inches of snow at 11:1 and 1.9 Cobb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-to-hit-quickly-on-first-w/24659760 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Posted per Ryan Maue's twitter feed 12z euro individual ensembles Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Map per. Robert on WxSouth (Facebook) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 00z GFS snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models are struggling with the 3 pieces of energy. This far out I would not worry too much about zig zags. Agree with WPC that baroclinicity is favorable in March. On the other hand this thing gens up a little late for Tennessee, even the bomb forecasts. Still 4 days out lots can and will change. Tennessee Valley needs include better high press straight to our north, and earlier spin up of the storm. Current forecasts have surface highs over the Plains and Northeast; but, not ideal cold push from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. That said temps upstairs from 850 up are cold enough and the Sunday system digs the mean tough/jet stream south. Bottom line: I would not worry too much about exact model tracks, short-wave phases, or QPF until 12Z Saturday or even 00Z Sunday runs. Pattern is friendly if the storm develops right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GEM wants to build the storm into a 961MB,which is equal to a cat 3 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models are struggling with the 3 pieces of energy. This far out I would not worry too much about zig zags. Agree with WPC that baroclinicity is favorable in March. On the other hand this thing gens up a little late for Tennessee, even the bomb forecasts. Still 4 days out lots can and will change. Tennessee Valley needs include better high press straight to our north, and earlier spin up of the storm. Current forecasts have surface highs over the Plains and Northeast; but, not ideal cold push from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. That said temps upstairs from 850 up are cold enough and the Sunday system digs the mean tough/jet stream south. Bottom line: I would not worry too much about exact model tracks, short-wave phases, or QPF until 12Z Saturday or even 00Z Sunday runs. Pattern is friendly if the storm develops right. Do you really think the boundary will slip that far S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 .24 tri .23 tys .01 bna..lol GFS12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 MRX sticking with "what snow? what cold?" for here. Hope they're right on the temps. Planted potatoes and cabbage today hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm totally lost of what accuweather has been saying and showing the last couple days.Has anyone seen a model being this far N? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snowstorm-threatens-east-next-week/24695582 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is very dead on here. That does not usually bode well for our storm. Does anyone have any updates or ideas. I noticed MRX decided to acknowledge the possibility of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Bearman, 0z and 6z GFS still have it as well as a minor event for northern counties tomorrow. The 0z Euro lost it. That can happen during this time frame. 12z will shed some important light on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Monday night and Tuesday snow looking less likely for the Valley. Tri Cities might get light snow for two reasons. First is climo. Second TRI is the only place that might have a prayer with the phase apparently failing, or not happening until too far east. Phase fail creates temperature problems everywhere except TRI. Now just 60-72 hours away, I doubt models are missing it. Barring a major change this is my last post for the event in Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like only a minor freeze scenario for the central valley so with some minimal covering of plants we should be fine. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I spent all day today working on a raised bed. Planted azaleas and a Jane magnolia. I really would prefer not to have a hard freeze. I haven't checked tonight, but earlier the GFS had us bottoming out at 22 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 We had around 2 inches of snow in Erwin at my office, and we had around three quarters of an inch in North Johnson City, mainly on the grassy areas and trees. Very pretty. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Above freezing but gusty thundersnow now in Franklin, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The radar has exploded as the upper level energy is coming overhead. There looks to be a lot of instability and these bands are convective in nature I guess you could say. Just had a nice one come thru with quarter size flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 woohoo..the snow dome is busted,we got a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Most snow we got all year and it happened in 10 min,go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 This is the best snow band I've ever been in!!!! It really felt like a thunderstorm without the thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's been impressively heavy at times. It's one thing to love about spring snow. It doesn't stay on the ground long but it can produce heavy/huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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