Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Arguing with elitists on twitter is fun.Ahh that's you. You earned an unfollow. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ahh that's you. You earned an unfollow. Sorry dude. Could not care less. Thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If we really luck out. Hurricane bros this fall. Not if we get that massive El Niño they are predicting. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Every day I grow more and more glad that I do not Twittweeter. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Every day I grow more and more glad that I do not Twittweeter. Sent from my iPad It's like 90% arguing and 10% complaining. My kind of place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 lol Snowbro drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's like 90% arguing and 10% complaining. My kind of place. That sounds like my love life. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Could not care less. Thanks though.Your argument is poor. Wanting a model to be good at something it wasn't designed for doesn't make sense. I didn't connect the two.. I'll refollow you but you should at least realize it's not worth siding as you are. A broken clock isn't necessarily useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That sounds like my love life. Sent from my iPad lolI'm really a troll who managed to run into 'leadership' positions. Can't completely unlearn old habits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Your argument is poor. Wanting a model to be good at something it wasn't designed for doesn't make sense. I didn't connect the two.. I'll refollow you but you should at least realize it's not worth siding as you are. A broken clock isn't necessarily useful. I didn't say I wanted the model to be good. I was just expecting scientifically supported facts to back up the arguments Ryan and you had besides the generalist comments about how useless it is because it shows pretty snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I didn't say I wanted the model to be good. I was just expecting scientifically supported facts to back up the arguments Ryan and you had besides the generalist comments about how useless it is because it shows pretty snow maps. I think you're just missing background that we didn't rehash. NAM is a non hydrostatic mesoscale model. It wasn't made to accurately portray a system like we are going to see at this range. It's good for thunderstorms and stuff. People act like it did good for the last storm when reality is kind of different. For one it was all over the place until the end as usual.. and once it locked in it was still way too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not if we get that massive El Niño they are predicting. Sent from my iPad You make a great point. I can live with that as long as thunderstorm season is rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think you're just missing background that we didn't rehash. NAM is a non hydrostatic mesoscale model. It wasn't made to accurately portray a system like we are going to see at this range. It's good for thunderstorms and stuff. People act like it did good for the last storm when reality is kind of different. For one it was all over the place until the end as usual.. and once it locked in it was still way too wet. BUT WIKIPEDIA SAYS IT IS REALLY GOOD. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 BUT WIKIPEDIA SAYS IT IS REALLY GOOD. Sent from my iPad A socket set is really good at tightening bolts but it really sucks for cutting 2 x 4s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS4DC14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 All hail King NAM! So far it shows (the most) snow, and (the most) snow wins (hint to non- King Euro if you are listening (might want to start showing lots of snow soon now!)! So, as it stands, NAM is King, until others follow suit, or overtake! Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys, I got a really distressing fortune cookie. This has nothing to do with the weather, but I had to get that off of my chest. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'll leave this in here and walk away slowly: For forecasts greater than 72 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys, I got a really distressing fortune cookie. This has nothing to do with the weather, but I had to get that off of my chest. Sent from my iPad Hopefully your snow bra remained intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys, I got a really distressing fortune cookie. This has nothing to do with the weather, but I had to get that off of my chest. Sent from my iPad Just save your money and don't get any lottery tickets using the numbers it gave you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So the snow bro storm is looking more and more like a bro bust. It's ok. No shame in being rain bros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow. This thread blew up over night. The NAM is bad with snow storms. I have no scientific proof, but I have psychological proof. :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 El GFS nos da 1-2" (well, taking horrible snow:qpf relaciones into account). http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=099 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wow. This thread blew up over night. The NAM is bad with snow storms. I have no scientific proof, but I have psychological proof. :\ Just passionate people having different opinions. No big deal. Ian is a cool guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainnFocail Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Everyone off chatting in other places today, or actively making use of their Sundays? I suggested this on CWG too, but I was thinking that we could take a trip up to Provincetown. It is an easy 9 hour drive, has great food and drag shows, and cute bed and breakfasts. We can hunker down and watch the storm roll in and pound us. It will be amazing. I will bring the beer, toilet paper, Rye, and water. Actual weather stuff: Forecast discussion- BOTH NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BE IN PLAYMONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY THEY WILL PHASE OFFSHORE AND ADEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THETRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND WHERE/WHEN PHASING OCCURS WILLHAVE SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ATTHIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST PHASING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FAR ENOUGHOFFSHORE AND AT A LATITUDE THAT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIGSTORM TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR CWA BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOPLATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADINGTHROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATIONWILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN INALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUNANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGHTUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESETIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITINGINFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TOBE RESOLVED WITH TIME.PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THENWITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THEWESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUTLEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE. They have switched my forecast to all snow, instead of rain transitioning in to snow. At the moment it says 1-2" for Tuesday, without making any predictions for Monday night or Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Everyone off chatting in other places today, or actively making use of their Sundays? I suggested this on CWG too, but I was thinking that we could take a trip up to Provincetown. It is an easy 9 hour drive, has great food and drag shows, and cute bed and breakfasts. We can hunker down and watch the storm roll in and pound us. It will be amazing. I will bring the beer, toilet paper, Rye, and water. Actual weather stuff: Forecast discussion- BOTH NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BE IN PLAY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY THEY WILL PHASE OFFSHORE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND WHERE/WHEN PHASING OCCURS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST PHASING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND AT A LATITUDE THAT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG STORM TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR CWA BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN IN ALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESE TIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THEN WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUT LEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE. They have switched my forecast to all snow, instead of rain transitioning in to snow. At the moment it says 1-2" for Tuesday, without making any predictions for Monday night or Tuesday night. I'd be happy with even 1" of snow. In late March, that's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This storm is a taste of next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This storm is a taste of next winter. just like 3/6/2013 was a taste of 2013-14? you're clueless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belles_Lettres Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 AlainnFocail: Provincetown road trip: Great idea....wish I didn't have work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 AlainnFocail: Provincetown road trip: Great idea....wish I didn't have work. Sent from my iPad I went to Provincetown last year. It's a really beautiful city town village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Good looking frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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